I have been posting this on other boards. For me, I would prefer to
do my fundamental analysis and be a buy and hold type investor.
It is not working currently. So I am trying to come up with other
ideas. It seems to me that there may be a pattern in short attacks
that is easy to make large safe trades from.
Here is what I have been posting on June 8:
===========
Rather 2nd rate short attack on ERN
There was a hit piece published on Africa mostly
offshore (except Kenya) African E&P Erin energy
last week. First last week share price was pushed
from around 7.70 (my starter position entry)nto 8.70,
then the hit piece was posted to SA Pro then Friday
is was published on SA.
This morning share price fell to 5.50 and held on
a lawsuit investigation PR. I made a safe 50 cents
per share on 6.00 to 6.50 close (my timing was off,
I should have waited and entered at 5.80). I think
tomorrow will be down on more lawsuit PRs. Just as
with ANFI, I think share price will rebound to new
highs as the first 7k boe/d of crude production
is tied in soon then as the next 7k well is tied in ove
the summer.
I think I will be able to buy cheaper tomorrow
when more lawsuit PRs come out.
The short attack comes from a hedge fund that is
way down for the year. It is second rate because
basic message is that ERN management are not nice
people. Obviously, they will not be invited to sing
in the church choir, but they are succeeding in Africa
with different rules. Northern offshore (JF) is probably
not too happy they canceled its drill ship contract.
I think JF would do the same thing.
ERN has good off shore Nigeria leases and options to
deliver 40k boe/d on an FPSO.
Here is the URL to the SA hit piece:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3235116-erin-energy-questionable-characters-at-a-stratospheric-valuat
ion
All the accusations are weak. Two quick examples are that
the poster forgot to mention that the former Chairman
of RDS is on its board and valuation comparisons are all
to companies with dry holes and declining not growing
production.
do my fundamental analysis and be a buy and hold type investor.
It is not working currently. So I am trying to come up with other
ideas. It seems to me that there may be a pattern in short attacks
that is easy to make large safe trades from.
Here is what I have been posting on June 8:
===========
Rather 2nd rate short attack on ERN
There was a hit piece published on Africa mostly
offshore (except Kenya) African E&P Erin energy
last week. First last week share price was pushed
from around 7.70 (my starter position entry)nto 8.70,
then the hit piece was posted to SA Pro then Friday
is was published on SA.
This morning share price fell to 5.50 and held on
a lawsuit investigation PR. I made a safe 50 cents
per share on 6.00 to 6.50 close (my timing was off,
I should have waited and entered at 5.80). I think
tomorrow will be down on more lawsuit PRs. Just as
with ANFI, I think share price will rebound to new
highs as the first 7k boe/d of crude production
is tied in soon then as the next 7k well is tied in ove
the summer.
I think I will be able to buy cheaper tomorrow
when more lawsuit PRs come out.
The short attack comes from a hedge fund that is
way down for the year. It is second rate because
basic message is that ERN management are not nice
people. Obviously, they will not be invited to sing
in the church choir, but they are succeeding in Africa
with different rules. Northern offshore (JF) is probably
not too happy they canceled its drill ship contract.
I think JF would do the same thing.
ERN has good off shore Nigeria leases and options to
deliver 40k boe/d on an FPSO.
Here is the URL to the SA hit piece:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3235116-erin-energy-questionable-characters-at-a-stratospheric-valuat
ion
All the accusations are weak. Two quick examples are that
the poster forgot to mention that the former Chairman
of RDS is on its board and valuation comparisons are all
to companies with dry holes and declining not growing
production.