You should send them a link to ET.
Here people are teaching you how to be a zillionaire fo free. They don't even ask you anything in return, just that you promise to study hard. People are very nice on ET.
Easy edges in the markets for retail participants?
- Thread starter ras72
- Start date
You should send them a link to ET.
Here people are teaching you how to be a zillionaire fo free. They don't even ask you anything in return, just that you promise to study hard. People are very nice on ET.
I have never heard of them, that's why i asked if you had intimate details about their methods. It piques my interest every time i hear of traders earning millions yet selling subscriptions detailing their methods. If your earnings are in the 7 digits there is huge disincentive to reveal even small details about a method.
Don Miller is a long-time trader who specialized in the S&P 500 futures and later SPY shares. He wrote a book published by Wiley last year, has a website, sells info, does the trader show circuit, etc.
I haven't read the book, probably won't but in any event he has documented something like +$3 million trading ES futures.
John Carter, similar story but much bigger operation. Websites, trade-rooms, seminars, speaking circuit, book published by Wiley years ago, etc. Recently put out a public video of his futures, stocks and equity options trading statements from last year, and running cumulative this year already each over $1 million.
Not read that book either, but many here have.
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I understand the concept of guarding your edge. imo part of that comes from the stock trading world where liquidity could be an issue in thinner stocks. Quite frankly the same is true today for thin futures markets like the TF. But I also think part of that mantra is a male ego thing... the "I have something you'd love to have" = power, control, superiority feelings.
Not saying that's true in every case, but how many guys have you read that say, "I'm taking my trading edge to the grave... nobody else can have it, it's all mine-mine-mine."
well, some of us offered what we thought was sound advice. casting pearls can be a waste of time, at times. I do hope you find what you're seeking out there someday. There is no reason not to wish everyone well, no one individual is another's competition in this profession.
No, why. Lets try to figure out why they elected to share their insight instead of making money for themselfs. Lets take Don Miller (yup, I just looked him up). He could have gone, raised a little capital and grew it at 800% in 5 years, making himself a serious player. Instead, he decided to sell his "webinars" for $1,500 a pop. Does that "compute" in your opinion?
For what it's worth, I had a moment last year as I was battling a drawdown. I saw something on the chart that I knew that I had seen for sure. It wasn't something that I thought only looked vaguely familiar, it was something that "YES, I have seen this over and over, I'm sure of it!" I made the decision to go back to EOD data and snap pictures of every single day, and then compile all of the identical patterns and pick the best ones. I would then fine tune my trading plan to accommodate those patterns, and I would be good to go.
The result after combing through every snapshot since the beginning of my trading career? Not a SINGLE identical setup on any day, at least none that I could find after countless hours of review. Some things looked similar, but never the same. Honestly, a lot of the old charts looked like there were a completely different instrument. It angered and confused me.
Honestly, this birthed my "aha" moment. I gave up looking for the perfect setup, and I minimized my charts to the absolute bare bones. I looked with some fresh eyes, without the goal of finding the high winrate setup, and things got a lot better for me. I plan on outlining my entire trading plan on here at some point, however I don't know if this thread is the right outlet for it.
Rest assured, I don't think my plan affords me any statistical edge, other than it gives me the courage to click the mouse and risk my capital on a regular basis. My rules also allow me to have a reasonable target if I end up being right, and and uncle and reverse point if I end up being wrong. Coincidentally, my biggest days of profit are usually days that my initial direction is completely wrong. As long as I know what my "uncle" line in the sand is, there isn't any reason to fear the market or fear being wrong. I can simply go the other way and make a "wrong" right. I would have to guess that my winrate is now 30%, maybe a little more. However I am leveraged as such that it works.
I hope that helps. For me, giving up on the search for a statistical edge allowed me to gain the self discipline to give myself an opportunity to draw money from the market.
The result after combing through every snapshot since the beginning of my trading career? Not a SINGLE identical setup on any day, at least none that I could find after countless hours of review. Some things looked similar, but never the same. Honestly, a lot of the old charts looked like there were a completely different instrument. It angered and confused me.
Honestly, this birthed my "aha" moment. I gave up looking for the perfect setup, and I minimized my charts to the absolute bare bones. I looked with some fresh eyes, without the goal of finding the high winrate setup, and things got a lot better for me. I plan on outlining my entire trading plan on here at some point, however I don't know if this thread is the right outlet for it.
Rest assured, I don't think my plan affords me any statistical edge, other than it gives me the courage to click the mouse and risk my capital on a regular basis. My rules also allow me to have a reasonable target if I end up being right, and and uncle and reverse point if I end up being wrong. Coincidentally, my biggest days of profit are usually days that my initial direction is completely wrong. As long as I know what my "uncle" line in the sand is, there isn't any reason to fear the market or fear being wrong. I can simply go the other way and make a "wrong" right. I would have to guess that my winrate is now 30%, maybe a little more. However I am leveraged as such that it works.
I hope that helps. For me, giving up on the search for a statistical edge allowed me to gain the self discipline to give myself an opportunity to draw money from the market.
No, it simply has to do with the fact that you can not have everyone exploit an opportunity, it will dissappear rather quickly. The real "edges" are well known, but you can't just exploit it from your seat - e.g. convertible bond call spreads are frequently priced (and laid off) at ridiculous skew levels, but you have to be a broker-dealer to participate (there is stuff to do as a retail trader there, but this not the right audience). On the other hand, accesible statistical opportunities are sooner or later tapped out - look at any delta-one stat-arb trader, they went from riches to rags p&l-wise in the last few years. I have seen a number of strategies go from hero to zero, across multiple asset classes. Hence the secrecy - I don't want everyone bidding for the same products I want to buy and offering the same products I want to sell.
IMHO, small retail player has an advantage of (a) no size constraines and (b) no regulatory headaches. (a) means that when I look for an opportunity, I'll want to make at least X, while you might be looking to make X/100 or less. So, you can be playing in the playground where I would not fit (e.g. small-cap stocks or illiquid SN options). (b) is a true edge - you can (presumably intelligently) take risks that I can't - e.g. underwriting tail risk or taking cross-asset exposure that would be hard for me to take.
I'm curious as to what actually constitutes an "edge". I have a favorite technical indicator that seemingly works across many time frames, and it is derived from very fundamental math principles. (I came up with the idea in an "aha" moment, tried it out in crude form using stockcharts.com, and gained enough confidence to start researching it. Turns out another guy had the same idea and refined it far beyond anywhere I would have gotten in a reasonable amount of time. I want to make money, not optimize indicators.)
So, let's assume this thing works. Let's assume (for me) it lets me swing trade over periods of a few days to a few weeks with a decent win rate (> 70%) and higher reward than risk. Isn't that an "edge"?
Followup question: how on earth does one perform thousands of points of backtesting on something that might trigger a half dozen trades per year on a given instrument? I've checked dozens of instruments over a few key time frames each to the point where I trust this system, but Holy Moses I am nowhere near "thousands" of backtest points. Am I just fooling myself?
So, let's assume this thing works. Let's assume (for me) it lets me swing trade over periods of a few days to a few weeks with a decent win rate (> 70%) and higher reward than risk. Isn't that an "edge"?
Followup question: how on earth does one perform thousands of points of backtesting on something that might trigger a half dozen trades per year on a given instrument? I've checked dozens of instruments over a few key time frames each to the point where I trust this system, but Holy Moses I am nowhere near "thousands" of backtest points. Am I just fooling myself?