Easy edges in the markets for retail participants?

[austinp]

I get 70%+

that's about 30% of the 100% successful-trader equation. The other 70% is how large are the loss $$ to profit $$?

anyone can make a net-losing strategy with +80% or even 90+% win rate... but still lose money overall

the higher a win % rate any approach has, the less overall money overall it can possibly make. That is a universal law of large numbers which cannot be refuted or changed.

 

[smallStops]

You have clocked in the screen time : more than 10,000hrs ?
If not, then keep clocking. I now understand one mentor who used to say
"if you have not done your 10 000hrs of screen-time, do not bother me".

Now, if you have effectively clocked in the 10,000hrs : what else can you look at?
As you have yourself pointed out the same pattern you have been repeating :

To be honest, I think it was because I was in a position where I had to make a killing in order to make it, which often made me take risks I should not be taking. I often had green days that ended up B/E or red since I continued trading. I also traded with too much leverage. [/color]

... in the green during my last days, but in order to reach the profitability targets on a set amount of days, I had to swing for the fences, which set me back enough that I would have not chance to reach my profit target.

It was pretty much the same with my live account ...

 

[MarketAddict]

but really tho, why give away a day trade strat that makes serious bank?? why advertise and allow hundreds of people to look for your spots??? Even if they cant trade they will try and front-run, or panic in and out...... maybe cause problems for you to get filled at your full size, or to miss a trade. big noise increase at your levels.... maybe if its a longer term strat it would not matter and would be safe to give away... but shorter term and scalping it seems dangerous to give away/sell good ideas...

Trust me... There arent that many people on here that's actually making serious bank.. Even the so call gurus on here aren't making serious bank. You can just tell by how smart they try to sound.. But yea I agree with you.. Strategies that are making serious money are not shared and shouldn't be shared.. You really think Bill gates will share his top making money strategy with you.. Really?

 

[dbphoenix]

Trust me... There arent that many people on here that's actually making serious bank.. Even the so call gurus on here aren't making serious bank. You can just tell by how smart they try to sound.. But yea I agree with you.. Strategies that are making serious money are not shared and shouldn't be shared.. You really think Bill gates will share his top making money strategy with you.. Really?

All of which comes later. The first objective is to stop losing.

 

[austinp]

but really tho, why give away a day trade strat that makes serious bank?? why advertise and allow hundreds of people to look for your spots??? Even if they cant trade they will try and front-run, or panic in and out...... maybe cause problems for you to get filled at your full size, or to miss a trade. big noise increase at your levels.... maybe if its a longer term strat it would not matter and would be safe to give away... but shorter term and scalping it seems dangerous to give away/sell good ideas...

If you have a true concept that works, it works on any timeframe or chart setting. For example, you can apply a so-called strat for the ES on a 1min chart, a 10,000 volume chart, a 5,000 volume chart, a 620-tick chart and the long-short entry signals will vary. Why? Because you take the exact-same strategy and ask it to measure different "waves" of price movement in the same given symbol.

Secondly, any strat that works will issue numerous signals more days than not. Absolutely never in the history of mankind will a large group of individuals trade all of them, trade any of them at the exact tick, manage all trades similar to stops and exits. Has never happened, does not happen, will never happen due to basic human nature.

An undying misconception in this profession is that a working strat is some limited-use treasure map. Maybe if you include some limited time, outlier type approach for some specific stock and the way it behaves, etc. But for trading indexes or futures or FX or large liquid stocks? Any working "strat" does nothing more than contribute liquidity in reality.

 

[Laissez Faire]

You have clocked in the screen time : more than 10,000hrs ?
If not, then keep clocking. I now understand one mentor who used to say
"if you have not done your 10 000hrs of screen-time, do not bother me".

Now, if you have effectively clocked in the 10,000hrs : what else can you look at?
As you have yourself pointed out the same pattern you have been repeating :

Just looking at a screen for 10. 000 hours is pretty useless. You have to know and be aware of what you're looking at.

I spent probably thousands of hours studying the WRONG things. Get it?

You need a framework to understand and analyze price action.

Anyway, I was not asking for advice in this thread, I merely answered questions that were asked from me since I have no problems being upfront and honest.

 

[smallStops]

Just looking at a screen for 10. 000 hours is pretty useless. You have to know and be aware of what you're looking at.

I spent probably thousands of hours studying the WRONG things. Get it?

You need a framework to understand and analyze price action.

Anyway, I was not asking for advice in this thread, I merely answered questions that were asked from me since I have no problems being upfront and honest.

Let's say I just pointed some patterns you seem to have mentioned yourself.
I am obviously assuming you have done your 10 000hrs again.

 

[Laissez Faire]

And so on and so on.

Those who are members of your group insist on blaming something or someone outside themselves for their failures, or, if you prefer, their lack of success: gurus, vendors, authors, market makers, "smart money", brokers, sunspots. Never does it occur to them that their failure -- or yours -- comes down to a lack of a thoroughly-tested, consistently-profitable trading plan and the discipline to follow it. You don't have that. And that's no one's fault but yours. Try being honest about that.

You keep repeating yourself.

So, don't you think that people who are trying to lead on others should be exposed?

Or should we just let everyone to himself since after all, 'they're responsible for their own actions'?

Why not be honest here for a minute.

How much money did you earn from your trading operations and your trading plan in 2013?

If your answer is, "How will that help you make money?", then please don't waste your time answering. I rest my case.

 

[Laissez Faire]

Let's say I just pointed some patterns you seem to have mentioned yourself.

Absolutely.

Well aware of them myself and thank you for noticing.

In fact, I earned a small fortune swing trading. The honest truth is that I'm not sure if it was just luck or if there was any actual skill involved. I did have a trading plan though, but there was a lot of discretion involved.

I did post about it here. Some hated on it, but some thought there could be something there.

The difference from what I was doing then was that I was trading while maintaining a full-time job. Orders were entered EOD. No management during the day.

I was in a position where I could even add to my account from my wage and I had a pretty amazing (to me) return.

When I return to trading, I wil make sure to put myself in that same position.

 

[NoDoji]

I also called a 10 dollar drop in crude that I didn't trade.

Bottom line is that in the end I was still a net loser.

Cherry-picking quickly turns a winning strategy into a losing one.

Ask yourself why you didn't trade a call for a $10 drop in oil ($10,000/contract profit).

The answer(s) will likely explain why your trading resulted in net losses.