Yes - although for that amount, I would only sell a non-exclusive software license.
Easy edges in the markets for retail participants?
- Thread starter ras72
- Start date
Yes - although for that amount, I would only sell a non-exclusive software license.
The system made only 158k in 7 yrs, right? As a computer backtest?
And that right there is the simple secret, the absolute holy grail of our profession. Statistical application of a defined edge thru long periods of varying market action.
The vast majority of failed traders try to make this profession some kind of contest or game or battle where the need to win every day, every trade possible is their emotional fixation. Basic human logic: if I manage every trade to win or at least not-to-lose then I automatically win by default.
Lescor's "grinding it out" thread is the greatest running example inside here of how trading for money really works. The current trade or the next trade taken means nothing. Today's trading results don't mean shit in the overall scheme of a year. Having a success rate of 50% to 60% per trade or even per trading session is plenty enough to earn big profits, real profits in a year. Losing four or even all five sessions in a calendar week, happens at times.
Wanna make money, real money thru trading? Any market, any symbol, any time period of hold? Get your hands on a defined edge that works, apply that edge when and only when paramaters exist and ignore all else that flies around in front of your face on the charts. Only trade the situations with a proven long-term edge thru averaged results over time.
Stop trying to use logical deduction, fundamental reasoning or gut instinct applied to every bar on a chart. Intraday traders have on average 0 to 3 or 4 real opportunities to profit in any given session right now. That includes the once mighty CL which is now a mere shell of its former self. Nobody on earth with zero exceptions is profitable every session in CL or anything else listed to trade.
Apply your edge in controlled emotional fashion. Cut losses short, let profits run to acceptably larger distances. Accept losing days and even occasional weeks as part of the process. Never think of trading as any kind of competitive effort. Ever.
Do those simple things, and you will soon average $1,000 day = $250,000 annual and then $2,000 day = $500,000 annual and then $4,000 day = $1,000,000 annual by gradually increasing trade size.
Successful trading is a real simple equation in reality. The complexity comes from most men's absolute refusal to accept reality, as they try to create their own.
I understand your comment wasn't directed at me, but I'll give you my point of view:
- That "system" isn't a finished trading system - it is merely showing that a given pattern can have in & of itself enough merits to produce profitable results, year after year, on a large sample size.
- The 158k in 7 years is for trading 1 contract. Yes, it only amounts to 22k / year on average - per contract. Trade 100 contracts, this is now 2.2M / year.
- Computer backtest - yes, this is what it is. Remember that past results, whether simulated or real, do not guarantee that future results will be similar. That being said, I take great care in my backtests to keep the results as close as possible to what live trading results would be:
I include a systematic 1-tick slippage on entries & exits, $5 commissions per round-trip. Take a look at the same backtest, when I set the slippage to 0: P&L is 62,000 higher, as expected when you add back into it $20 of slippage per trade. As a side-note, my system CLAlwaysIn for the last year has been consistently delivering 1-tick better average per trade in my account than in the backtest.
That same system CLAlwaysIn, in 1 year, only shows 1 difference (in 600 trades) between live trading & backtest - the live trade got stopped out to the tick, where the backtest doesn't, for reasons that are unnecessary to discuss here, but that I understand fully, and won't reproduce in the future.
This pattern 151 is part of my system CLAlwaysIn - although the trade decisions in CLAlwaysIn combine the scores of all of its patterns, I am pretty sure it either took or was already in over 90% of those trades since I started trading it live. Exits might be different, because CLAlwaysIn only reverses its position when the combined score of all patterns at the next trend-change exceeds its decision threshold.
- Re. the valuation itself, it all depends on the buyer's intent - if he wanted to only trade 1 contract, then of course it wouldn't make any sense to do it this way, and I would encourage him to just lease the real CL151 system, for $1440 per year per contract traded.
But if he wanted to trade 100 contracts, then of course it is a completely different story - he would for sure want the source code, if anything to scale those 100 contracts into & out of each trade. But there is a lot more one can do from a sound starting base
Again, for 100 contracts the avg / year would be $2.2M, enough to justify an NRE of 250k, IMO.
If real-time results confirmed the computer backtest.
You're trading one contract in your journal?
Yes
For non exclusive I am only authorized to offer you 3 cents. And that with a money back guarantee of not satisfied.
easiest edge for retail is a parabolic curve on any timeframe, but usually the smallest timeframes offer immediate results but significant leverage is the counter part to shorter term timeframes otherwise just pissing in the wind.
larger timeframe parabolic curves as multi year bull bear markets are the easiest, buy and hold, sell and hold..
larger timeframe parabolic curves as multi year bull bear markets are the easiest, buy and hold, sell and hold..
That last sentence is pretty much the core reason for most misery.