Earnings Trading Journal

There were 6 companies I wanted to trade today unfortunate I did not have the time. I am a little disappointment I was only able to look at 2 today
 
.sigma said:
I'm curious why you decided to short vol in both of these underlyings? And why undefined risk in $NTNX? Because it's a cheaper stock?
More...
AMBA looks like a big winner here and NTNX looks like a small loser (up $5 from my short strike). I looked at my vol gauge which looks at a bunch of factors. Once I have that, I look at any company specifics to make sure I am not selling vol into some drug release. For example my model was telling me to sell vol on ARWR but because I saw that a single analyst upgrade today moved the stock 17% I decided not to sell vol (I should have listened to the my model). The basics of the model are listed in the first post on this thread. I hope that helps! You have been quiet recently, whats going on?
 
Last edited:
Turned out to be a great day! NTNX pulled down $1 from it's over night highs
today.PNG


Earnings account up 6.1% Since inception
 
TheBigShort said:
AMBA looks like a big winner here and NTNX looks like a small loser (up $5 from my short strike). I looked at my vol gauge which looks at a bunch of factors. Once I have that, I look at any company specifics to make sure I am not selling vol into some drug release. For example my model was telling me to sell vol on ARWR but because I saw that a single analyst upgrade today moved the stock 17% I decided not to sell vol (I should have listened to the my model). The basics of the model are listed in the first post on this thread. I hope that helps! You have been quiet recently, whats going on?
More...

Hi TBS

Nice results!

How much do you rely on your model compared to how much you rely on your interpretation of the news? I know you’re big on interpreting the news.

Also I noticed you had your “cumulative profit simulation chart” based on the “actual move” (the entire day’s move). Would basing it on the “jump” be a better simulation as I noticed you exiting your positions soon after the market opening the next morning in the previous journal?
 
Last edited:
.sigma said:
Great work!
More...
Thanks sig!

Adam777 said:
Hi TBS

Nice results!

How much do you rely on your model compared to how much you rely on your interpretation of the news? I know you’re big on interpreting the news.

Also I noticed you had your “cumulative profit simulation chart” based on the “actual move” (the entire day’s move). Would basing it on the “jump” be a better simulation as I noticed you exiting your positions soon after the market opening the next morning in the previous journal?
More...
For non directional trading I am simply using the model. Looking at the news is more for comfort. For directional trading I pour over various documents including news.

I could use jump instead of news. The problem is, many small cap companies dont trade much over night when news is announced. Within the first minute of trading hours the stock moves 5% to reflect the anouncement. The jump will be understated as we cant get out in the first minute on a small-midcap stock
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top