Earnings Plays?

[IV_Trader]

Quote from jj90:

About 3k lost of stats. Last year Jan to Aug, this was my style of trading. All earnings plays, sometime long straddle/strangle, sometimes long 1 directional. I looked at pretty much everything, from put/call ratio to volume and chart patterns. Some worked, some didn't. Bought high premium on 'story' stocks, bought high IV on longshots. Nothing conclusive, I even went into some Eliott wave mode with rangebound gappers. The market prices stuff in pretty well.

I have read several of your posts, and I imagine you are just asking me to back my claims up. If you are actually wondering why, I or someone more experienced would be glad to answer.

I agree that this game is not easy lately (low vols), but its not dead yet. This quoter was the weakest ever ( for my 5 years) in the vols runs (and availability of reverse calendars) into the reports , but this fact is also created some unbelievable opportunities to go long straddle/strange into report. I got two huge winners in the last 48 hours ( UARM and DP) ; the r/r was excellent .

 

[trkarl]

Since this thread's topic was buying straddles or strangles on earnings plays I figured I would post this here. I put this trade on for AMZN earnings...

BTO 10 jun 37.50 calls 1.15 debit 1165.00
STO 5 may 35.00 calls 1.90 credit 935.00
BTO 10 jun 32.50 puts .90 debit 915.00
STO 5 may 35.00 puts 1.50 credit 735.00

total debit 410.00

My thoughts were if it sat still the IV crush on the may straddles would profit. If it ran either way the 2x june strangles would profit. Now the hardest part is waiting.
Depending on what happens by may exp. I may then sell june 35 straddles or convert the strangles to verticles. Any thoughts?

T

 

[IV_Trader]

Quote from trkarl:

Since this thread's topic was buying straddles or strangles on earnings plays I figured I would post this here. I put this trade on for AMZN earnings...

BTO 10 jun 37.50 calls 1.15 debit 1165.00
STO 5 may 35.00 calls 1.90 credit 935.00
BTO 10 jun 32.50 puts .90 debit 915.00
STO 5 may 35.00 puts 1.50 credit 735.00

total debit 410.00

My thoughts were if it sat still the IV crush on the may straddles would profit. If it ran either way the 2x june strangles would profit. Now the hardest part is waiting.
Depending on what happens by may exp. I may then sell june 35 straddles or convert the strangles to verticles. Any thoughts?

T

maybe you should just closed it and move on. You do realize that you can lose more than 410$ on this trade , right ? Even if you planing to close all at May expirations

 

[xtrhvydty]

Also look for a sector which is crumbling and watch one after another drop like flies after the announcements. Compare the RS graphs to find stocks which closely correlate with the sector's top cap stocks. Check for insider selling and options volatility skews on OTM options for further clues. I have found it is often a higher r/r to just buy a strangle after the announcement than buy a long put before due to inflated IV. It all depends on the particulars of course. All in all the peace of mind of direction-neutral trading is worth a millon bucks.

 

[IV_Trader]

Quote from xtrhvydty:

I have found it is often a higher r/r to just buy a strangle after the announcement than buy a long put before due to inflated IV.

Now you talking ! Potential high reword with "graceful" exit in case it didn't worked out !

 

[neophyte321]

Does anyone know where one can find Raw Earnings Data?
Symbol,Date,Earnings ... in csv format


Would greatly appreciate any info!!!!