short strangle this morning...
Earnings journal
- Thread starter TheBigShort
- Start date
Had a great morning closing CSX @ 3.71 and ABT @ 1.82. We have some real juice in the UNP long straddle. Long 177 avg @ 4.32.
First UNP is implying a 2.4% move. Margin for error is quite high. Avg move last 16 quarters is 3.6%. But as I have learned implied mv/avg mv is not enough to implement a trade. If you read any of the recent reports from the UNP board/ the Q1 out look from there last report. The optimism is through the roof! From all the guidance reports I have read starting this quarter, UNP is at the top. I am not saying it is not achievable, but the tail risk is really there even with the recent share buy back in place. I think we could see UNP plunge 5%-8% if it misses tonight. However, if the company does hit the target that they pumped up. UNP will see all time highs and in my opinion have a massive move to the upside!
Last but not least my favourite indicator for more increased tail risk is increased dividend + higher debt/equity. UNP raised their div 10% in February and debt/equity is at all time highs. I believe worst case scenario I have to close the option for $3.00 @ 9.40 am.
I have some other EA trades on tn to but will leave it at this.
First UNP is implying a 2.4% move. Margin for error is quite high. Avg move last 16 quarters is 3.6%. But as I have learned implied mv/avg mv is not enough to implement a trade. If you read any of the recent reports from the UNP board/ the Q1 out look from there last report. The optimism is through the roof! From all the guidance reports I have read starting this quarter, UNP is at the top. I am not saying it is not achievable, but the tail risk is really there even with the recent share buy back in place. I think we could see UNP plunge 5%-8% if it misses tonight. However, if the company does hit the target that they pumped up. UNP will see all time highs and in my opinion have a massive move to the upside!
Last but not least my favourite indicator for more increased tail risk is increased dividend + higher debt/equity. UNP raised their div 10% in February and debt/equity is at all time highs. I believe worst case scenario I have to close the option for $3.00 @ 9.40 am.
I have some other EA trades on tn to but will leave it at this.
Interesting. I've not really looked at using fundamentals to predict earnings surprises. I basically rely on just the implied / avg move, and I find that to be quite a robust estimator by itself (I've made 50+ earnings trades so far). Since I mostly trade only liquid stocks, I assume that any fundamental information and other news is already priced in before earnings (thanks to the army of overpaid sell-side analysts), and that the earnings tail risk is inherently unpredictable. So, in my view, selling earnings vol risk premium is equivalent to selling insurance, and carries similar risks.
Are you short DHR? I just got filled on a short. I think the move just happened. Implied move pretty steep.
I agree with you that you are collecting idiosyncratic risk premium. However I recently got in touch with Euan about this topic and he said recently there has been some major banks that are doing just that! This is really eroding away @ the risk premium + our account is not big enough to spread across all stocks with an equal weighting by implied standard deviation. We can find a cleaner/longer lasting edge by being selective in my opinion.
It's working right now, but who knows how long that will last!
Ps. What are you currently short? A ton of names to look at today.
It's definitely worth looking into. I'm always trying to improve my system, and maybe including some fundamental data would help.
I'm short AXP (104/112/120 @ 3.4cr) and GPC (106/113/120 @ 3.4cr).
I dont see the juice in AXP! Any reason for not selling DHR?
AXP straddle breakeven 2.8% (was higher when I got filled), average move 0.5%. What are your numbers? DHR strikes are $5 apart, but it looks good otherwise. May enter near the close if it stays in this range.
I have avg mv 3% last 16 quarters. %5 moves are not uncommon. But all the major banks have released so I cant see AXP moving to much. Good Luck!
I might be wrong, but this chart tells me it's barely moved in the last several quarters:
