Earnings journal

[sfwind]

second thought, why not risk reversal; hence, sold 20 put for $0.95

 

[sfwind]

correction:chased PE with vertical call spread may 17; 20/22.5 for $1

 

[sfwind]

another chase: xlnx May 17 risk reversal; sold 125/120 put, bot 135/140 call

 

[sfwind]

last two: ms april 42 calls; gs april 210/220 call spread

 

[TheBigShort]

Long CSX straddle going into earnings. Implied move is just under 3%. EVERYONE is bullish on this stock and its about to break to all time highs. So if it misses, I think we see a pretty big plunge and if it beats, it will break to all time highs. The earnings moves also show some seasonality with the larger moves happening this quarter. Avg move this quarter over past 16 quarters is 4.2%.

On the fundamental side of things CSX Debt level is @ all time highs. As we are all aware of the debt/volatility correlation. CSX looks like a good long vol play here (I rarely am long vol, but this is really juicy).

I am long 76/75.5 strangles Avg Px of 2.19.

edit* debt to equity vol correlation

 

[TheBigShort]

FWIW I am short ABT vol as well. Short 71/76.5 76.5/82 for 2.25. They have been pretty transparent with their on going projects in Mar and Feb. We also have a implied move of 3.2% which is almost double actual.

Edit* I think the earnings move already happened today. ABT down 1.3%

 

[TheBigShort]

I dont want to count my chickens before they hatch but CSX almost @ 80 right now. Did anyone else take this trade?

 

[sfwind]

Long CSX straddle going into earnings. Implied move is just under 3%. EVERYONE is bullish on this stock and its about to break to all time highs. So if it misses, I think we see a pretty big plunge and if it beats, it will break to all time highs. The earnings moves also show some seasonality with the larger moves happening this quarter. Avg move this quarter over past 16 quarters is 4.2%.

On the fundamental side of things CSX Debt level is @ all time highs. As we are all aware of the debt/volatility correlation. CSX looks like a good long vol play here (I rarely am long vol, but this is really juicy).

I am long 76/75.5 strangles Avg Px of 2.19.

edit* debt to equity vol correlation
View attachment 200903

Which month?

 

[OptionsOptionsOptions]

Did anybody trade NFLX?

IMO ..... An "Earnings journal" has to include a stock such as NFLX.

 

[oldmonk]

IMO ..... An "Earnings journal" has to include a stock such as NFLX.

Ironically, the best earnings trades are often in less popular stocks that no one talks about. NFLX was a weird one - It's vol was too expensive (top quartile of earnings vol among all stocks) to buy, and too cheap (relative to past realized earnings moves) to sell. Anyone who bought a straddle on this would've been very disappointed though.