Earnings journal

NTNX looks overdue for a sudden move. Earnings report due on Feb 28th, median miss 20%.
NTNX.JPG
NTNX earnings.JPG
 
The histogram is the range of the last 3 bars. The magenta bars represent high volatility with % price change > 20 day MA + 1 std deviation. The cyan bars are % price change < (20 day MA + 1 std)/3. There are 14 cyan/magenta "pairs", 11 of 14 (78%) have high volatility shortly after a cyan bar prints. If options are priced right there is money to be made with long straddles.
 
GoLions said:
The histogram is the range of the last 3 bars. The magenta bars represent high volatility with % price change > 20 day MA + 1 std deviation. The cyan bars are % price change < (20 day MA + 1 std)/3. There are 14 cyan/magenta "pairs", 11 of 14 (78%) have high volatility shortly after a cyan bar prints. If options are priced right there is money to be made with long straddles.
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We know there is going to be volatility around earnings. It moves about 7% around earnings (if I can remember correctly). Are you saying the implied volatility is cheap? If so, what do you think fair value is? I currently do not see how you are extracting alpha
 
The March straddle is Priced at 12% of the underlying, (@ 43% IV) which is not cheap relative to the historical 5 bar volatility spikes of up to 19% ;

NTNX stradle 2-15-19_LI.jpg
 
About these earnings releases, don't get to focused on the sizes of the previous misses. I had indicator alert on KO the other day. On 2/13 the straddle was cheap, premium only 2.3 % of the underlying price but the median earnings miss was only 2%, and the magenta volatility spikes were recent and not cyclical, so I decided to pass. 2 days later, the actual earnings miss was zero but the stock tanked over 9% and the straddle nearly doubled;
KO 2-15-19.JPG
KO earnings 2-14-19.JPG
 
This is my trade for Tuesday if the price is still there. Not a earnings play , just a cheap straddle price, cyclic volatility and a bullish wedge;

VZ straddle 2-15-19.JPG
 
GoLions said:
This is my trade for Tuesday if the price is still there. Not a earnings play , just a cheap straddle price, cyclic volatility and a bullish wedge;
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I don't want to be mean, but this journal is more quantitive and it would be nice if we could keep it that way. I don't want to start attracting all the technicians.

On another note if you expect VZ to breakout of a bullish wedge, you would expect vol to drop and hence an expensive straddle px (deltas and vol are highly correlated for large caps and indexes). Lastly, where is this cycle you speak of? I see 2 spikes in vol because of earnings reports and I see one spike in vol due to the overall mkt sell off in December.

Overall, I have no idea what you have been talking about since you started posting here.
 
My earning season ends with Wal Mart. Went and looked back at KHC, based on my metrics I would have been short KHC straddle. Dodged bullet here.

@Kevin Schmit is right. I have to take serious look at only Fly for short earnings vol next season.
 
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