Earnings: IC vs Short Strangle

Quote from EliteTraderNYC:

Hey guys, where would I find information on FDA announcements like VVUS?
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I used to scan the FDA web site but that place is a black hole that can suck hours out of your life.

Try FDAnews.com :)
 
Quote from babutime:
The market is pricing a $50 move. And it has always jumped higher on earnings. Fundamentally though they have so many customers going to Europe and the European tourism env. woith higher hotel costs is prolly gonna show up in their guidance which for the first time might cause the stock to drop. Not to mention the street this time has much higher expectations. So how would I remodel the option with that outlook?

Overall I do expect it to rise
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Quote from ForexForex:
Take a look at:
  • PCLN @ $590.00
  • Buy Mar16 2012 615.00 Calls @ $16.50
  • Sell Mar16 2012 650.00 Calls @ $6.30
  • Debt about $10.00
Based on your observations and expectations in your previous posts that position will be about a 3x return if PCLN reaches $590.00 + $50.00+ = $640.00+.
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Good call babutime, your orginal assessment on PCLN before earnings was right on. But you are easily lead astray and your following posts degenerated to a point where you lost focus on the earnings. Try and say focused in the future, good luck next time.

With PCLN @ $632.76 after earnings the Mar16 2012 615/650 Call Spread is at about $20.00. It could go down or up at this point with 2 weeks to expiry, but it is sitting at a healthy 2x profit.

:)
 
Quote from ForexForex:

Good call babutime, your orginal assessment on PCLN before earnings was right on. But you are easily lead astray and your following posts degenerated to a point where you lost focus on the earnings. Try and say focused in the future, good luck next time.

With PCLN @ $632.76 after earnings the Mar16 2012 615/650 Call Spread is at about $20.00. It could go down or up at this point with 2 weeks to expiry, but it is sitting at a healthy 2x profit.

:)
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I still stand by what I quoted. I was making a reference to convexity with my "flip-flop". I didn't make the trade because IB flagged me with a potential pattern-day trader warning. But I would've gone and made the long put trade.

I like being wrong for the right reasons. Sure that short vertical would've made me some money and at a large risk. But everyone knows those trades.
 
Quote from babutime:

I still stand by what I quoted. I was making a reference to convexity with my "flip-flop". I didn't make the trade because IB flagged me with a potential pattern-day trader warning. But I would've gone and made the long put trade.

I like being wrong for the right reasons. Sure that short vertical would've made me some money and at a large risk. But everyone knows those trades.
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It's rare here someone will admit their view was wrong and then move on. Good qualities.
 
Quote from babutime:

Humility never hurts...
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The best traders I ever met were humble they were wrong and arrogant when they were right... made them unpleasent to talk to, but they made moeny.

Being right doesn't really matter anyway. It's about making money. You can be wrong 90% of the time and be profitable or be right 90% of the time and be unprofitable.
 
Quote from newwurldmn:


Being right doesn't really matter anyway. It's about making money. You can be wrong 90% of the time and be profitable or be right 90% of the time and be unprofitable.
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Exactly. I'll still make money on PCLN regardless. I've been focusing on it and Apple for the past two weeks. My two big money makers.

Profits are always so lopsided...
 
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