E-mini S&P Trade Bands

Hi Michael:

I retired because I had sufficient funds to live a reasonably nice lifestyle without having to check-in to work every morning. As you know the bell rings at 6:30am here on the west coast.

As it turns out, retirement is not for me, and so I still get up to trade, however I only trade occaisonally, and there is no pressure to make a specific amount of money. I am having fun.

Good luck in the markets this week (everyone)


Steve
 
Hi Steve:

I totally agree with everything you've stated.

It certainly is beneficial to observe price action across several time frames, using multiple indicators, looking for convergence. Odds of a good trade are tremendously increased when time, price and pattern converge.

There are many strategies that can produce positive results, some better than others. The problems most traders sometimes experience (me included) are most likely psychological in nature.

My quest for the formula used to produce those accurate numbers continues.

Thanks for the insight.
 
Hi tnc$ddc,

This is just my opinion. I don't really think there are some big boys pulling strings at certain numbers. (Of course they do but not because they do.) Rather the market has some natural order (repeating what Kevin Haggerty said like a parrot) AT TIMES. Personally I think large trend move to be the least natural... not much of a trend trader.

I too believe in confluence but if one add too much to the mix, one ended up with information overload, harder decision and hurt the P/L. Like Zen, one has to be as simple as possible while retaining the essence. I fall prey to this problem last week as I found more S/R but ended up complicating and clouding the decision process. It could also be a matter of getting used to so I will see how it goes this week.

Personally, I don't think anyone here would tell you anything working great. Lotus7 was probably the most generous among all posted on this thread.

Good trading.
 
I have hard time believing that there are "secret numbers" that the "BIG BOYS" collectively look at to base there trades on. This would imply that the Big boys are all aligned and taking the money from the small time loser who did not get the secret numbers. If you look at the Commitment of traders report you will see that the large speculators and the commercials are always competing against each other and make up most of the open interest.

So if the Bigboys are competing against each other don't you think they would try to beat each other to get in front of the secret numbers before there counterparts do. Hence, making the secret numbers worthless.
 
Hi martys:

I respect your opinion, and I totally agree that watching too many charts, with too many indicators, can certainly cause confusion and information over load.

The market does move in repeatable patterns, but I do believe the S&P E-mini market is highly manipulated.

I just don't believe the large brokerage firms enter each trading day hoping they can out maneuver the retailers, and make good profits. They have a plan to systematically move the market, and the money needed to push it where they need it to go, provided the public doesn't become too strong.

They are in business for several reasons, but the most important is to make money for their clients. If they don't, they cease to exist.

You may be right, about no one here giving up what they consider valuable information. But, you never know when a successful trader, understanding how difficult trading can be, will be generous and offer help, help like many of them received from a mentor or fellow traders.

And I agree, Lotus7 was very generous, and has earned my tremendous gratitude.

Thanks for your reply. It's always been interesting to know the different opinions that exist among traders.
 
tnc$ddc,

Here is my 2 cents for the Index Futures market:

1. Start compiling and computing your own statistical data.

2. Create a spreadsheet and compile the open, close, low and high data. Some people use the overnight Globex data, but I prefer the 0930 to 1615 ET time frame since the cash and derivative markets are highly correlated during this time frame.

3. With this data, you can start playing with averages and standard deviations to get a feel for the intraday market structure.

4. Definitions. Long Bias Day: 0930 ET open is much closer to the day's low than the high. Neutral Bias Day: Open is in middle of range. Short Bias Day: Open is much closer to high of day than low.

With this data, start to answer some questions:

1. How often is the market skewed toward either the low or high rather than neutrally biased, relative to the open?

2. When the market has a long bias, on average, how far does the market move to the downside before trading up? What is the deviation of that average? Same question for short bias days.

3. What is the Average Daily Range? What is the deviation of that average?

4. What is the Average True Range? What is the deviation of the ATR?

Remember what a 1 standard deviation range tells you - that 68% of the time, the market will trade within that range. However, it also tells you that 32% of the time, the market will either not make it to that range or trade beyond that range. However, a 68% chance of something happening is a pretty good edge in the trading world. This is information that you did not have before.

Play around with various Breath Indicators of the cash market. This will help you decide if the market is most likely to have a long, neutral or short bias for the day.

This is the hard part of trading: HAVE THE DISCIPLINE TO WAIT FOR THE MARKET TO PRESENT YOU WITH A STATISTICAL EDGE BEFORE ENTERING A TRADE!

Have to go. Good luck!

Charles
 
Quote from CharlesTrader:

tnc$ddc,

Here is my 2 cents for the Index Futures market:

1. Start compiling and computing your own statistical data.

2. Create a spreadsheet and compile the open, close, low and high data. Some people use the overnight Globex data, but I prefer the 0930 to 1615 ET time frame since the cash and derivative markets are highly correlated during this time frame.

3. With this data, you can start playing with averages and standard deviations to get a feel for the intraday market structure.

4. Definitions. Long Bias Day: 0930 ET open is much closer to the day's low than the high. Neutral Bias Day: Open is in middle of range. Short Bias Day: Open is much closer to high of day than low.

With this data, start to answer some questions:

1. How often is the market skewed toward either the low or high rather than neutrally biased, relative to the open?


4. What is the Average True Range? What is the deviation of the ATR?

Remember what a 1 standard deviation range tells you - that 68% of the time, the market will trade within that range. However, it also tells you that 32% of the time, the market will either not make it to that range or trade beyond that range. However, a 68% chance of something happening is a pretty good edge in the trading world. This is information that you did not have before.

Play around with various Breath Indicators of the cash market. This will help you decide if the market is most likely to have a long, neutral or short bias for the day.

This is the hard part of trading: HAVE THE DISCIPLINE TO WAIT FOR THE MARKET TO PRESENT YOU WITH A STATISTICAL EDGE BEFORE ENTERING A TRADE!

Have to go. Good luck!

Charles
More...
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Hi;
1]Good points on 68% & 32%;
& some numbers can be refined.

2]Even if one chose not to refine those numbers, may want to look for what patterns happens when the market does NOT reverse @ those areas .Even when its not an exact turning point, but approximate area.

2.22]ES is like ER2 or GM or any liquid market, the high or low of the day has to be hit by someone
:cool: ;
but dont be discouraged if its not me or you,
not much time or liquidity at those 2 points, /daily hi/low
 
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