E-mini S&P Trade Bands

Okay then,

I have a moment here and thats about all this will take.

First, this is classic retail trader thinking. The idea that one or more vendors can put out numbers that are "deadly accurate" on a consistent basis is an old one. We see it here all the time. Apparently this time it is "trending123" and Mohan. Unfortunately thats just not true.

The idea that one needs "deadly accurate" levels to make money is also "not true". One needs only to learn how to determine

1. what levels the market respects intraday
2. how to enter
3. how much to risk
4. how to bet the trade
5. when to take profits

So I checked out Trending 123 and frankly, it is a hodgepodge of all kinds of indicators (both "proprietary" and public of course) which the vendors states makes them "the most popular site" for traders. There's nothing new here, and frankly who needs it, except for newbies, who get sucked into these crappy little sites all the time.

My advice is simple. Learn to trade. Learn to use established levels like pivots and classic support and resistance. Learn to determine the most likely levels by obersevation (like most professionals), by individual research and testing.

Some great examples of traders who have done this;

1. Tony Oz
2. Kevin Haggerty
3. Spydertrader

and there are several others some of whom (as you can see) are ET members.

Good luck

Steve
 
Tnc,

Quote from tnc$ddc:


The numbers I'm looking to compute are "buy" and "sell" numbers (two of each) that I receive daily in a subscription I have with trending. I also receive daily "buy" and "sell" pivot numbers (two of each) from Mohan, at 21st Century Futures. Mohan's numbers are sometimes close to the numbers I receive from Trending, but not as accurate.

The numbers are calculated at the end of each trading day, for use the following day, usually by "Position Traders". They consist of two "buy" numbers and two "sell' numbers. They do not change during the day. One of the numbers is usually hit during each trading day.

These numbers are deadly accurate, and seem to be obvious, daily targets for the "big boys".

More...


Ah Now we are getting somewhere.

Ok Mohan, I know Him and nothing he does is magic (except talk alot). the numbers he post are Modified Market Profile numbers and Floor S/R numbers and then a 10 day MA. Nothing magic about that. His MP numbers are usually a little different from what I have (no Big deal) he may round them for himself or he may have a different data provider who knows. he used to use the LLS numbers.

LLS numbers are detailed in the book sniper trader. anyone who is serious will benefit from reading this book and taking the time to understand the concepts.

I have never seen the Trending 123 so I cant tell you anything about them. I will say there are no magic numbers. the market is the market. buyers and sellers. there are many different players and different time frame traders all having different perceptions on what they are trying to accomplish.

From what you are seeking I hope you are learning about Market Profile. read the threads in this site on the subject. MP is something that most professionals know about.

Lotus 7
 
Quote from Lotus 7:

Marty,





I just posted the Volatility bands to help. I belive each trader who has or will study Hagerty, needs to come to there own terms with the use of the bands. I have always used the VB on the cash market. The VB are not used of and by itself, always in conjunction with other set-ups.

I don't want to get to far off topic here, and make this a Hagerty thread.

Besides I am not sure this is what the original poster is looking for to begin with.

Namaste

Lotus 7
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Hi Mr. 7,

I agree. Sometimes I use the band as "part" of my entry technique and NOT the reason for the trade. I studied some of Haggerty's stuff but I don't really trade them... they just don't quite fit me well (not much of a trader) but I like the bands. I am sure some traders do great with his stuff. But he probably has more influence on me than I care to think. Definitely one of the few "real" guys out there. If you care to start a thread on Haggerty, I will definitely join in for discussion. But with all due respect, market returns "appeared" not to be bell-curve (normal) distribution so the probability assignments are not sound.
 
Steve46:

Thanks for your help.

I presently use the procedures you mentioned, with some success. Believe me, I have paid my dues in time and money.

I've observed the numbers I'm looking to compute for quite some time, and, although I don't consider them to be magical in any way, I am consistently amazed at their accuracy. They are, without a doubt, the most accurate I've seen in several years of trading the S&P E-mini.

The S&P E-mini market is a highly manipulated market and, although I truly do not believe there are any magical numbers, I am convinced that the "big boys" enter each trading day with a definite game plan, including target numbers to buy and sell against. To think otherwise could be construed by others that are experienced, to be a bit naive. The"big boys" manipulate the public, using well known S/R, on the way to their pre-established targets, which these numbers seem to be a large part of.

Even though it's very possible to become successful without these numbers, I'm intrigued with their accuracy. I have access to the numbers daily, but I would really like to know how to compute them myself. You know the old adage "teach a man to fish", etc.

Belive me, if I never learn the formula, it certainly won't be from the lack of trying.

Thanks again for your help.

tnc$ddc
 
There are quants that work for HF's that can reverse engineer anything...If its as accurate as you say than it has already been done...

Your statement that they are so accurate...have you mentioned for how long? Are they more like zones as Steve mentions rather than the exactness that you proclaim they have?

Michael B.


Quote from tnc$ddc:

Steve46:

Thanks for your help.

I presently use the procedures you mentioned, with some success. Believe me, I have paid my dues in time and money.

I've observed the numbers I'm looking to compute for quite some time, and, although I don't consider them to be magical in any way, I am consistently amazed at their accuracy. They are, without a doubt, the most accurate I've seen in several years of trading the S&P E-mini.

The S&P E-mini market is a highly manipulated market and, although I truly do not believe there are any magical numbers, I am convinced that the "big boys" enter each trading day with a definite game plan, including target numbers to buy and sell against. To think otherwise could be construed by others that are experienced, to be a bit naive. The"big boys" manipulate the public, using well known S/R, on the way to their pre-established targets, which these numbers seem to be a large part of.

Even though it's very possible to become successful without these numbers, I'm intrigued with their accuracy. I have access to the numbers daily, but I would really like to know how to compute them myself. You know the old adage "teach a man to fish", etc.

Belive me, if I never learn the formula, it certainly won't be from the lack of trying.

Thanks again for your help.

tnc$ddc
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Michael B.:

I've observed these numbers for over a year, and have actively incorporated them in my trading for 8-10 months, with good success. They don't seem to be part of a zone, but rather appear to be used as particular targets. If I were to strictly trade against these numbers only, my win rate would probably be in the 90 percentile. But, like most other traders out there, at times I fall prey to fear, greed, boredom and hesitation, making some trades I wish I had not, or not making trades I wish I had.

I really don't want to mislead anyone. I honestly don't consider these numbers to be the "Holy Grail", they are not always hit. They usually don't hit on days the "big boys" have gone golfing, or fishing, or are content to let the market meander in consolidation within a tight range for some unknown reason. You can make more money if you incorporate trading against well known S/R on the way to these numbers. I'm just intrigued by the market's reaction to these numbers, on most days.

The first set of buy/sell numbers have different daily spreads, but sometimes stay around a 15.5 or so spread, which is considered by many MM users to be a full daily move. They sometimes match up with MM numbers but most often do not.

I have experienced many days when the market blows right through well known S/R to hit one of these numbers, just for an instant, and then turn on a dime, indicating to me that they were targets for someone playing with enough money to truly move the market.

Most often, if the market is not in consolidation, and reaches one of these numbers, it turns immediately. Although, it will sometimes extend beyond the number, due to momentum, staying within a standard mini S&P move of 1.75 - 2 points. A 1.75 - 2 point protective stop is most always enough. In a hot market, if price extends beyond the number by more than 2 points, the 2nd buy or sell number has usually been targeted.

Again, it's not the "Holy Grail" but I sure would like to know how they're computed.

Thanks.
 
Hello:

The reason that "these numbers" are not the holy grail is simple. Indexes are noisy. That noise is the sound of many different agendas being played out by a variety of participants, each with their own time frame.

When you see support and resistance, or pivots, or EMA's, or the preceding day's high, low or close "being respected" this simply means that a group of participants HAVE CHOSEN TO ACT AT THIS PRICE POINT. There can be several reasons, from tax considerations (profit taking) to simple cost of borrowing money (differences in margin rates). THIS IS WHY it is not important (nor will it be possible) to consistently find a single method to compute "levels" (pivots, S/R, whatever). What is important however is to observe how the market acts intraday as it approaches known levels. Does it stall?, does it move through on a wide range bar?, does it reverse? I have made money (consistently) observing the behavior of these participants and then acting on that information for a little more than a decade. Therefore I figure anyone can do it (if I can).

In a previous thread ("Trading the FOMC") I posted a couple of charts that included the following;

1. LRC (linear regression channel)
2. Pivots
3. EMA's (5,20 and 50 period)

On one of those charts, I observed that when price hit a point where there is a convergence of two of those elements (LRC channel line and a daily pivot for instance) that price tended to stall out or reverse. I observed this on a number of days prior to that one, and then saw it again. Thats what I am talking about.

I hope that helps.

Steve

TNC$DDC
I like your comment about stops (basis the ES). I agree that a stop loss of 1.75 to 2 points is probably pretty good for that market. I also find similar size stoploss is right for the ER (Russell contract) as most pullbacks off a trend or reversal in that market are of 1.3 to 1.7 magnitude.
 
One more thing

Seems to me to be common sense, that if you look at a chart and you have only one item to monitor, while it may simplify things, it also constricts your chances of seeing a useful signal or behavior. After all, you are looking at something (say it is daily pivots) that a specific group of people are monitoring. On any given day, that group may be big, small or in between.

If on the other hand you have a chart with several indicators (Linear Regresson Channel, Daily Pivots, EMA's for instance) and you see price moving towards a point where several of these indicators come together, there has to be a significantly larger group "seeing" and "reacting" to what you see. In my opinion, what you see in that case is significant in that a potentially bigger group of traders may decide to act on that information. I think there is an edge there.

Steve
 
good stuff Steve....Damn, why did you retire?


Quote from steve46:

One more thing

Seems to me to be common sense, that if you look at a chart and you have only one item to monitor, while it may simplify things, it also constricts your chances of seeing a useful signal or behavior. After all, you are looking at something (say it is daily pivots) that a specific group of people are monitoring. On any given day, that group may be big, small or in between.

If on the other hand you have a chart with several indicators (Linear Regresson Channel, Daily Pivots, EMA's for instance) and you see price moving towards a point where several of these indicators come together, there has to be a significantly larger group "seeing" and "reacting" to what you see. In my opinion, what you see in that case is significant in that a potentially bigger group of traders may decide to act on that information. I think there is an edge there.

Steve
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