E-Mini S&P Elliott Wave Discussion: July, 2010

[EWT]

Last night I gave the game plan for today's trade. Price almost reached the target of 1091.25 then headed south. I've noticed that this has happened twice this week,... where fills are scarce around my #s. I shade my orders by .50 but larger market players seem to be stepping up in front and dictating the direction. I've seen this game before.

Since the ON stole our trade and price have traded back down to key support, the pattern we spoke about is void and we will have to re-evaluate.

Best of Trading

Quote from EWT:

Looking at the 15 minute chart, I've shown a zig-zag set up where wave a = wave c at 1091. 25. The pattern should be as symmetrical in slope as noted by the cloned blue lines. Should the market print below key support, all bets are off.

Let's see what develops overnight. It is also possible that wave (iv) could develop into a more complex correction negating this outlook.

Best of Trading

 

[EWT]

The Market spent most of the week falling in an impulsive manner but it doesn't appear that we have a completed wave 1 down from 2 (blue). At the daily chart level, price has yet to break the trendline. Doing so would add the the bearish case. Final confirmation that wave 2 blue has indeed ended occurs on a break of critical support (1053).

For the early part of next week, I'll be looking for the completion of wave 1 of 3 (blue), then a retracement for wave 2 of 3. There represents a low risk entry for a significant decline of wave 3 of 3.

I'll calculate some preliminary targets early next week. Until then...

Best of Trading

 

[EWT]

The overnight session hasn't shown its card but we will be relying on the wave count to provide our directional bias which remains down. On Friday we had an "inside day" on a daily chart of ES1. Inside days often lead to trending price action. So be alert to this possibility. What a trader needs to be aware of is that trend days can reverse during the same day and lead to a powerful move in the opposite direction.

Examining the current move down, the wave count is mature... meaning that we are in wave (v). Most of the decline is done; therefore, there is limited downside potential and greater risk of a countertrend move.


Best of Trading

Quote from EWT:

The Market spent most of the week falling in an impulsive manner but it doesn't appear that we have a completed wave 1 down from 2 (blue). At the daily chart level, price has yet to break the trendline. Doing so would add the the bearish case. Final confirmation that wave 2 blue has indeed ended occurs on a break of critical support (1053).

For the early part of next week, I'll be looking for the completion of wave 1 of 3 (blue), then a retracement for wave 2 of 3. There represents a low risk entry for a significant decline of wave 3 of 3.

I'll calculate some preliminary targets early next week. Until then...

Best of Trading

 

[EWT]

I warned about the possibility of trending price action and a reverse during the same day. Examining the move down off the open, it appears that wave (v) has been struck but the powerful reversal never materialized. I have relabeled the wave sub structures to better reflect the size of the decline. Nothing changes the larger degree trend. A failure to hold 1066.25 (critical support) would indicate that wave (i) was still extending.

Minuette wave (ii) is currently unfolding. Since the most common retracement for a 2nd wave is .618, the target is 1103.75 (+/_ ). Attaining this level isn't an absolute requirement. My minimal expectation is for the gap between 1090 - 1096 ( +/_ ) to be filled.

Best of Trading

Quote from EWT:

The overnight session hasn't shown its card but we will be relying on the wave count to provide our directional bias which remains down. On Friday we had an "inside day" on a daily chart of ES1. Inside days often lead to trending price action. So be alert to this possibility. What a trader needs to be aware of is that trend days can reverse during the same day and lead to a powerful move in the opposite direction.

Examining the current move down, the wave count is mature... meaning that we are in wave (v). Most of the decline is done; therefore, there is limited downside potential and greater risk of a countertrend move.


Best of Trading

 

[gettinglucky]

If shii breekz beluw zis trendlayene... Look out b'low!!!

 

[EWT]

GettingLucky - Also draw the trendline from the low on a daily chart and then take another look. Interesting? You can see the significants of a break below the trendline a few posts back.

The trendline should be eclipsed on the next trip down. Right now, a retracement up is the game.

Thanks for the post.

Best of Trading

 

[EWT]

Early action in the overnight session is progressing as anticipated in an upward fashion. If the current rally is to unfold in a simple zig-zag, then the target(s) for the completion of wave c of wave (ii) is:

wave c = wave a @ 1087.25

wave c = .618 wave a @ 1081.75 (already reached)

wave c = .,618 wave a past wave a @ 1089.71

wave c = 1.618 wave a @ 1096.25

As a reminder... from last night's Market Wrap, I mentioned possible targets of at the gap between 1090-1096 and the .618 retracement at 1103. Together these represent our "Zone" for the termination of wave (ii).

Let's see what unfolds.


Best of Trading

 

[EWT]

Just a short note here tonight. Today may have marked the end of wave (ii) purple right in the area of our Fibonacci cluster points. Getting below 1083.25 would bolster the case that wave (ii) had indeed ended.


Best of Trading

Quote from EWT:

If the current rally is to unfold in a simple zig-zag, then the target(s) for the completion of wave c of wave (ii) is:

wave c = wave a @ 1087.25

wave c = .618 wave a @ 1081.75 (already reached)

wave c = .,618 wave a past wave a @ 1089.71

wave c = 1.618 wave a @ 1096.25

As a reminder... from last night's Market Wrap, I mentioned possible targets of at the gap between 1090-1096 and the .618 retracement at 1103. Together these represent our "Zone" for the termination of wave (ii).

Let's see what unfolds.


Best of Trading

 

[gettinglucky]

Quote from EWT:

Just a short note here tonight. Today may have marked the end of wave (ii) purple right in the area of our Fibonacci cluster points. Getting below 1083.25 would bolster the case that wave (ii) had indeed ended.


Best of Trading

/ooqz /1k3 1t n41/3d z3 0.500000 f113 r3tr4c3mant r1ght 0/\/, /\/\4t3!

 

[EWT]

Interesting day in that what appeared to be the start of something big to the downside fizzled. By 3:30 pm est., the market had clawed its way back up to challenge the near term top of wave (ii). Until a break of 1089.5, the current wave count stands (see chart).

Best of Trading