After a great deal of experimentation between November 2011 and November 2015, I developed what I regarded as a successful guerrilla warfare style of scalping the Forex market, which I called a Multiple Simple Moving Average Envelope (Ms. Mae’s) trade strategy.
Between August of 2016 and August 2018, I refined Ms. Mae’s strategy and called the modified version of my approach the Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) trading system.
Due to circumstances that took me away from full-time trading, I was forced to make an attempt to adapt NPP’s scalping methodology to more of a pseudo-swing style of trading, even though prior to this, all my attempts to trade profitably using anything other than a short-term approach to intraday trading proved futile.
However, unlike all my previous efforts, this time the majority of my "longer-term" trades (though usually no more than 24 hours) were ending with a positive result. This has motivated me to start a new thread (this one) for evaluating this recent offshoot of NPP, which I am calling Dynamic Probability Trading (DPT).
To oversimplify the system, DPT is built on typical price range from the perspective of three different time frames and on the intraday trend.
Despite warnings not to attempt to pick tops and bottoms, this is exactly what the system is designed to do.
The chart setup is essentially comprised of three proprietary price range envelopes and two proprietary moving averages, greatly simplifying my former arrangement. The envelopes are generated using statistical calculations based on a sampling of historical data.
In a nutshell, whenever the candlesticks make contact with the upper or lower band of a price range envelope, there is an increased likelihood that price will reverse direction—a likelihood that is heightened in proportion to the number of price range envelopes involved.
Reversals are confirmed via the moving averages, though in actual application, positions are entered and exited as dictated by what is happening on lower time-frame charts.
I am very hopeful that the system will continue to work, so the main function of this thread will be to help me maximize and standardize the way in which I employ it.
Between August of 2016 and August 2018, I refined Ms. Mae’s strategy and called the modified version of my approach the Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) trading system.
Due to circumstances that took me away from full-time trading, I was forced to make an attempt to adapt NPP’s scalping methodology to more of a pseudo-swing style of trading, even though prior to this, all my attempts to trade profitably using anything other than a short-term approach to intraday trading proved futile.
However, unlike all my previous efforts, this time the majority of my "longer-term" trades (though usually no more than 24 hours) were ending with a positive result. This has motivated me to start a new thread (this one) for evaluating this recent offshoot of NPP, which I am calling Dynamic Probability Trading (DPT).
To oversimplify the system, DPT is built on typical price range from the perspective of three different time frames and on the intraday trend.
Despite warnings not to attempt to pick tops and bottoms, this is exactly what the system is designed to do.
The chart setup is essentially comprised of three proprietary price range envelopes and two proprietary moving averages, greatly simplifying my former arrangement. The envelopes are generated using statistical calculations based on a sampling of historical data.
In a nutshell, whenever the candlesticks make contact with the upper or lower band of a price range envelope, there is an increased likelihood that price will reverse direction—a likelihood that is heightened in proportion to the number of price range envelopes involved.
Reversals are confirmed via the moving averages, though in actual application, positions are entered and exited as dictated by what is happening on lower time-frame charts.
I am very hopeful that the system will continue to work, so the main function of this thread will be to help me maximize and standardize the way in which I employ it.
Last edited:
