Dynamic Pivots

Daily Comment

Thu 11 Aug 2005 Evening (gmt)

Correction or Trend?

The euro turned on a steeper upward slope yesterday afternoon. Was
this in anticipation of negative news for the greenbag - retail sales
today, trade unbalance, consumer confidence, etc, tomorrow?
Expectations about these data probably accelerated the retracement
which has been with us for more than a month now. The upward momentum
was steady, but it lacked the bursts which we like to see to make
Matsys-T hold the positions. Matsys-T triggers on level breakthrough,
but if the breakthrough is not confirmed within a certain time,
safety mechanisms take effect to limit losses. This happend several
times in the past 24 hours resulting in premature closings of the
positions, and all we got for the effort was a few measly pips. We
will work on tuning Matsys-T to give more slack, but first we would
like to see the upward movements of the euro confirmed as a trend.
Three daily closes above 1.2500 -- the 50% level in the retracement --
might do it. However, if the trend is not confirmed, Elliot Wawe
soothsayers will call this the fourth wave, and they will expect the
fifth wave to hit rock bottom. We are not fortune tellers, but we
don't believe that is a likely scenario.
 
Into Europe and further stabs

Support at 1.2450 based the decline yesterday and overnight bids at the
price continued to hold the focus. Into Europe and further stabs lower
have been noted but with the USD looking resolute ahead of the trade
data the Franc has not managed to make any significant headway. Talk is
of buyers lined up back to 1.2400 with decent stops below, while offers
are seen up at 1.2470/75. US data today will be key to deriving the
short-term direction going into the weekend as US structural issues are
back on the agenda. Thus the trade data (12:30 GMT) will be scrutinized
for reasons to sell the USD. A number close to USD57/58Bn is the
current consensus compared with the previous USD55.35Bn number. Any
number below USD55Bn will have [USD/CHF] looking to bounce with 1.2500
offers likely to initially prove a stalling point. Above, 1.2620 is key
to any US unit reversal as it is a double-day high (Aug 9th/10th) and
the 38.2% fibo of the 1.3060 to 1.2435 move also resides at 1.2622. On
the M&A front Swiss private bank Julius Baer today announced that it
needs foreign "acquisitions" to become a leading Swss private
institution.
 
Daily Trades:

08/12 00:21 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8093 1.8102 08/12 02:06 -9
08/12 06:15 GBP/USD BUY 1.8103 1.8152 08/12 09:58 49
08/12 12:47 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2447 1.2418 08/12 12:49 29

Daily results on Matsys T (2 lots): + 138 pips
 
Dynamic Pivots

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF

Average True Range High Band
1.2451 1.8165 1.2617
Matsys Resistance
1.2409 1.8118 1.2576
Pivot Point
1.2361 1.8076 1.2511
Matsys Support
1.2348 1.8033 1.2488
Average True Range Low Band
1.2311 1.7988 1.2444


Reversal Triggers - MACD Optimizer

MACD - slow-fast-smooth

EUR/USD
07-03-06

GBP/USD
10-08-12

USD/CHF
09-07-04
 
Daily trades:

08/15 05:38 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2405 1.2382(Add Lot) 1.2373 08/15 10:44 32
08/15 05:39 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8126 1.8121(Add Lot) 1.8098 08/15 10:46 28
08/15 05:39 USD/CHF BUY 1.2504 1.2521(Add Lot) 1.2543 08/15 10:47 39
08/15 13:11 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8094 1.8082 08/15 13:48 12
08/15 13:13 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2356 1.2361 08/15 13:55 -5
08/15 13:55 EUR/USD BUY 1.2361 1.2355 08/15 15:57 -6
08/15 17:13 GBP/USD BUY 1.8097 1.8116 08/15 18:57 19


Daily results on Matsys T: +292 pips
 
Dynamic Pivots

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF

Average True Range High Band
1.2436 1.8179 1.2646
Matsys Resistance
1.2384 1.8133 1.2588
Pivot Point
1.2333 1.8074 1.2541
Matsys Support
1.2312 1.8028 1.2482
Average True Range Low Band
1.2282 1.7983 1.2449



Reversal Triggers - MACD Optimizer

MACD - slow-fast-smooth

EUR/USD
07-03-06

GBP/USD
10-08-12

USD/CHF
09-07-04
 
Daily trades:

08/16 06:02 EUR/USD BUY 1.2353 1.2362 08/16 08:06 9
08/16 07:11 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2549 1.2558 08/16 08:32 -9
08/16 07:01 GBP/USD BUY 1.8101 1.8122 08/16 08:41 21
08/16 09:21 GBP/USD SHORT 1.8094 1.8097 08/16 10:11 -3
08/16 08:32 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2351 1.2328 08/16 10:32 23
08/16 08:33 USD/CHF BUY 1.2562 1.2594 08/16 11:23 32


Daily results on Matsys T (2 lots): +146 pips
 
Daily Trades:

08/17 05:14 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2577 1.2596 08/17 06:28 -19
08/17 06:31 USD/CHF BUY 1.2600 1.2607 08/17 08:32 7
08/17 06:07 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2308 1.2295 08/17 08:33 13
08/17 08:31 GBP/USD BUY 1.8072 1.8100 08/17 11:14 28
08/17 10:47 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2596 1.2588 08/17 11:15 8
08/17 10:47 EUR/USD BUY 1.2296 1.2298 08/17 11:19 2
08/17 12:57 GBP/USD BUY 1.8111 1.8089 08/17 14:02 -22
08/17 23:39 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2263 1.2265 08/18 01:12 -2
08/17 23:40 USD/CHF BUY 1.2624 1.2617 08/18 01:16 -7


Daily results on Matsys T (2 lots): +16 pips
 
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