Dynamic Pivots

DYNAMIC PIVOTS GbpUsd (DAILY,WEEKLY,MONTHLY) updated


MR3 12756
MR2 12709
ATR HB 12694
MR1 12633
DPP 12598
MS1 12537
MS2 12521
ATR LB 12502
MS3 12441


WMR3 12918
WMR2 12833
WMR1 12711
WPP 12683
WMS1 12543
WMS2 12476
WMS3 12411


MMR3 1.3341
MMR2 1.3166
MMR1 1.2991
MPP 1.2701
MMS1 1.2526
MMS2 1.2237
MMS3 1.2062
 
Weekly trades:

08/01 06:30 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2169 1.2182 08/01 06:56 -13
08/01 07:03 EUR/USD BUY 1.2189 1.2173 08/01 07:57 -16
08/01 07:59 EUR/USD BUY 1.2190 1.2189 08/01 08:09 -1
08/01 07:02 GBP/USD BUY 1.7626 1.7666 08/01 08:40 40
08/01 07:03 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2814 1.2780 08/01 08:41 34
08/01 10:38 GBP/USD BUY 1.7679 1.7673 08/01 11:31 -6
08/01 10:38 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2757 1.2758 08/01 11:33 -1
08/01 11:31 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7671 1.7677 08/01 11:47 -6
08/01 10:39 EUR/USD BUY 1.2228 1.2219 08/01 11:53 -9
08/02 01:30 GBP/USD BUY 1.7706 1.7712 08/02 02:37 6
08/02 01:16 EUR/USD BUY 1.2207 1.2209 08/02 02:41 2
08/02 00:33 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2771 1.2764 08/02 02:57 7
08/02 04:12 GBP/USD BUY 1.7723 1.7711 08/02 04:28 -12
08/02 05:52 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7698 1.7697 08/02 07:26 1
08/02 07:08 USD/CHF BUY 1.2779 1.2761 08/02 07:29 -18
08/02 07:35 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2745 1.2741 08/02 08:19 4
08/02 07:35 GBP/USD BUY 1.7711 1.7722 08/02 08:53 11
08/02 07:34 EUR/USD BUY 1.2217 1.2221 08/02 09:19 4
08/02 12:31 EUR/USD SHORT 1.2207 1.2221 08/02 12:37 -14
08/02 12:32 USD/CHF BUY 1.2748 1.2730 08/02 12:42 -18
08/02 12:31 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7718 1.7734 08/02 12:48 -16
08/02 12:48 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2718 1.2724 08/02 13:05 -6
08/02 12:43 EUR/USD BUY 1.2226 1.2221 08/02 13:06 -5
08/02 13:06 USD/CHF BUY 1.2732 1.2768 08/02 17:06 36
08/02 21:26 GBP/USD BUY 1.7722 1.7710 08/02 22:16 -12
08/03 06:24 GBP/USD BUY 1.7682 1.7697 08/03 07:39 15
08/03 08:43 GBP/USD BUY 1.7734 1.7801 08/03 10:50 67
08/03 06:21 EUR/USD BUY 1.2178 1.2308 08/03 10:58 130
08/03 06:24 USD/CHF SHORT 1.2781 1.2668 08/03 11:04 113
08/04 12:42 USD/CHF BUY 1.2645 1.2632 08/04 13:00 -13
08/04 14:36 GBP/USD BUY 1.7784 1.7801 08/04 15:47 17
08/04 15:51 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7787 1.7806 08/04 16:58 -19


Total weekly results (2 lots): +604 pips
 
Dynamic Pivots


EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF

Average True Range High Band
1.2461 1.7934 1.2703
Matsys Resistance
1.2409 1.7866 1.2643
Pivot Point
1.2353 1.7818 1.2578
Matsys Support
1.2301 1.7753 1.2521
Average True Range Low Band
1.2276 1.7701 1.2462
 
Daily comment

Sun 7 Aug 2005

The longer term

Thursday, the euro closed at 1.2388. We assumed then that there would be good support at 1.2350 for further gains. We also thought this level to hold through the announcement of NFP and initial claims. But the numbers were much better than expected, and it triggered some euro sell-off -- maybe corporate profits returning to the USA. However, persistant buyers stepped in on the scene whenever the price went below 1.2320, and the week ended at 1.2360. Friday's fight between the bulls and the bears may continue Monday, but we think it will be short-lived, and we are in a period of euro retracement since the low in early July.

On our web at we show three long-range Matsys-T charts. For the most parts the forex community does not have the patience to wait 3-4 months or more, so it is not interesting to publish long range signals. However, you will notice that we have closed eur and gbp short and usd/chf long, and a new position on eur long has been opened. There may be more opportunities to buy into eur at dips below 1.2320 for a longer term strategy.
 
Market comments

With the broader market fixated by the FOMC meeting tomorrow the JPY
attracted much of the attention overnight after the postal vote defeat
for PM Koizumi meant [EUR/JPY] flows dominated the direction. Into
Europe and with no key data the USD was initially favoured and trading
eased towards 1.2315 before more Middle-Eastern accounts again bought
in good size. The pair rallied and removed stops above 1.2360 before
selling at 1.2375 capped the move. After a period of consolidation the
next leg higher was put through on the back of cable triggering stops
and trading ran up to 1.2390 before the next layer of offers were
found. The market reaction to the much hyped 25bp hike will be key but
bulls are still looking for the EUR to get a boost from the EZ Q2 GDP
data due Thursday. Stops are noted above 1.2400 while there is also
talk of a possible expiry at the price at the NY cut (14:00 GMT). If
the EUR rally can extend to above 1.2400 then the option barriers at
1.2420, 1.2450 and 1.2500 will continue to draw speculation as to the
size of the protection that is noted ahead of them.
 
The CHF took no initial comfort from the Swiss data released this
morning, Swiss Unemployment for July was reported at 3.5% to match
expectations, as the overnight news from Japan kept the USD underpinned
on the back of JPY weakness. Into Europe and USD selling across the
board was again the theme and more Middle-Eastern buying of the EUR
helped [USD/CHF] offers at 1.2675/80 to cap. Spot was then sold-off
back to 1.2590 as the higher levels offered better levels to sell. With
trading now holding near 1.2600 after stops were taken out the next
layer of sell-stops are noted below 1.2580. Offers are seen at
1.2615/20 with good bids 1.2575. Dealers suggest that until the
1.2565/2675 range is broken the short-term direction maybe sideways.
Much of the focus is directed at the FOMC rate decision tomorrow where
another 25bp hike is expected. [EUR/CHF] trading has pivoted around
1.5600 in Europe after the failure last week at 1.5625. [GBP/CHF] Early
two-way between UK names worked a Franc weakness angle and trading ran
up to 2.2530/35 where better sized offers capped emerged to cap.
 
NY opening

August 8: High and rising interest rates, widening rate differentials,
a significant growth differential over the Euro zone, none of these are
helping the USD much is this morning as the market focuses on reserve
diversification by oil producing nations. With oil trading close to
$63, that trend is likely to remain with us for a while. EUR/USD
stalled at Friday"s post-payrolls high of 1.2390, but pullbacks have
been shallow. 1.2360 should provide support on dips near-term while
barriers at 1.2420 should provide some supply on rallies as the holders
defend them. The US calendar is empty so expect oil prices to dominate
the early action with higher oil leading to a higher EUR.
 
Hi Gwac,

Our Dynamic Pivots ara based on *********** program and our trades on Matsys and also Dynamic Pivots.

Thank you.


Best regards,
Eurfxwintrades
 
Small stops are eyed


EUR/USD is modestly easier, trading just below 1.2370. Dips are shallow
as oil maintains its strong gains, trading just a dime shy of the $63
level. Prospects of continued Fed tightening and perhaps even an
acceleration in tightening in the months ahead are helping push
interest rate differentials to the widest level in years today. Two-
year spreads favor the USD by 185 bp, a new high for the move while ten-
years are at 108 bp, retesting recent highs. Small stops are eyed in
the 1.2355 area but the market retains an overwhelming "buy the dips"
mentality.
 
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