Dynamic Pivots

Forecasts for July NFP

Employment +200k vs. +146k, median est 180k

- Unemployment Rate 5.0% vs. 5.0%, median est 5.0%

- Avg Hrly Earnings +0.2% m/m vs. +0.2%, median est +0.2%

- Work Week 33.7 hrs vs. 33.7 hrs, median est 33.7 hrs
 
German Factory Orders for June are expected at 10.00AM GMT, provisions are for an unchanged monthly performance, due to the strong rise in May, YoY change is expected up strong at 3.7%.

Everybody will be waiting for the Rate announcement at 11.00GMT by the BOE and after the much talked minutes and vote at the previous MPC meeting it is fair to expect a quarter-percent ease to bring the UK short-term rates to 4.5%.
Such a move should be priced in by the market and not pull any sellers, I’d rather expect a short-term spike of the currency after the announcement.

The ECB is also holding its meeting today and any rate-announcement is expected for 11.45GMT. I think European Central Bankers have made it rather clear in June, that political pressure alone will not be sufficient in changing their stand on stability, expect rates to be left unchanged at 2%.

US Weekly Jobless Claims are due at 12.30GMT. With July Non-farm payroll on the agenda tomorrow, markets may react sensitive to any strong deviation from the expected 315k for the final July-week.
 
MATSYS-R or Reversal Triggers

This is a Reversal System, is a Trading System that we normally don’t use, because we only use the normal system, like with Stop Loss (SL) and Target Price (TP), but with MATSYS-R we don't use SL, because we are always in trading, how?
For example, we Buy 1 lot at 2848, and don't put SL and we only wait for the next new signal, always one Short signal after one Long (buy), and this signal comes, we will Short 2 lots, so this way we will stay with one lot always, and wait again for new signal, in this case, will be again one Long.

Example:

Buy 1 lot - Sell 2 lots - Buy 2 lots - Sell 2 lots and at 21:00 GMT (or before) we close all signals.


MATSYS-T or Trend Following

This is the Trend Following, is the Trading System with a Stop Loss, but never with Target Price. We think that is a interest Trading System, is easy to use, and we only change SL to protect our position, until the sell or Cover signal come to close our position.

Example:

GBP/USD: SHORT AT 1.8452 STOP LOSS AT 1.8481
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8432
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8426
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8421
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8418
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8409
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8400
GBP/USD: STOP LOSS NOW AT 1.8394
GBP/USD: COVER AT 1.8378 (Closed)
 
Daily Comment

Fibo talk

Yesterday we showed our subscribers a chart with Fibonacci
retracement lines. We don't do that often. We just don't believe that
there is a natural or even divine order that is governed by these
simple ratios. However, they are ok to use as a reference, and if
enough traders believe there is resistance at a certain line, there
just might be so. On the eur/usd chart below we have added
retracement lines to the trend line from April high to July low. See
how nicely it fits the theory: strong resistance at 1.2340. Just as
we have seen since last night today. Asians tried to break it, but it
will take more than one attempt. When the day closes above 1.2350 we
will assume the 38.2% fibo line is broken and the next target is the
50% line at 1.2490.
 
EUR/USD is consolidating around 1.2375 after a brief foray above 1.2400
to trigger the latest flurry of barriers. Dealers see an afternoon of
modest position adjustment ahead of tomorrow"s payrolls. Heighten
terrorism fears in the wake of the Zawahri tape this morning are adding
to USD woes as his appearances are generally followed by major attacks
against US interests or those of its allies in the weeks following its
broadcast. 1.2410 is next technical resistance in EUR/USD though most
are more focused on 1.2490. Markets are approaching overbought status
after a strong break to the upside following the break of 1.2250
yesterday. 1.2350 is intraday support on dips.
 
Matsys T trades:

08/04 12:42 USD/CHF BUY 1.2645 1.2632 08/04 13:00 -13
08/04 14:36 GBP/USD BUY 1.7784 1.7801 08/04 15:47 17
08/04 15:51 GBP/USD SHORT 1.7787 1.7806 08/04 16:58 -19


Daily resul on Matsys T (2 lots): -30 pips
 
New voices on Euroland

This sound picture of my little French town has changed compared to the same period last year. To the delight of us residents, the organizers of the music festival "Nuits de Sud" have learned that their public can hear the so-called music quite well at 120dB. The 220dB they broadcasted last year probably cost them ticket sales. Why, the public could hear the concert more than five miles away without paying.

But the sound picture has changes in another way. New languages are mixing with the usual Dutch, English, Japanese, Scandinavian etc. in the little streets here. Czech, Hungarian, Slovak and Slovine are echoing along the walls of the narrow streets. For the past ten years venture capital has traveled east. Judging by the brouhaha of Slavic voices I hear now through my open window some of that money is now returning. If this begins to show up in the statistics this fall, the Return of the Euro may come with force when it comes. So far it seems to have found good support at 1.2350 as we predicted. In 30 minutes NFP numbers and more will be published. Traders are holding their breath (or rather the finger on the mouse button). Let's see what happens. Have a good week-end.
 
Eur comment:

Dealers are getting a bit nervous as the market adopts a near-universal
buy-the-dips mentality. Talk of Middle Eastern bids on dips have been
heard already but real money accounts are predominately sellers so far.
Dealers are marveling at the post-data price action as EUR/USD fell t0
1.2362 immediately after the release before bouncing to 1.2390 before
selling off in earnest. Another nervy bounce to 1.2365 was seen from
the low 1.2340s. Dealers see buying interest still in the 1.2230/40
window with more toward 1.2310. 1.2300 has contained dips since the
Middle East kicked off the buying frenzy on Wednesday. Stops lie below.
 
DYNAMIC PIVOTS (DAILY,WEEKLY,MONTHLY) updated

MR3 12506
MR2 12465
ATR HB 12428
MR1 12427
DPP 12363
MS1 12324
MS2 12274
ATR LB 12261
MS3 12222


WMR3 12556
WMR2 12491
WMR1 12355
WPP 12258
WMS1 12201
WMS2 12134
WMS3 11988


MMR3 1.2723
MMR2 1.2512
MMR1 1.2302
MPP 1.2142
MMS1 1.1932
MMS2 1.1772
MMS3 1.1562
 
DYNAMIC PIVOTS GbpUsd (DAILY,WEEKLY,MONTHLY) updated

MR3 17939
MR2 17894
ATR HB 17873
MR1 17849
DPP 17781
MS1 17738
MS2 17668
ATR LB 17657
MS3 17623


WMR3 17961
WMR2 17778
WMR1 17595
WPP 17434
WMS1 17251
WMS2 17090
WMS3 16907


MMR3 18934
MMR2 18591
MMR1 18247
MPP 18059
MMS1 17716
MMS2 17528
MMS3 17186


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