DXO/DTO Traders out there?

Quote from S2007S:

Remember everyone calling for $200 oil now the opposite is happening, this analyst predicts $17, I agree oil is headed further down due to the economic recession worldwide, I think we see $1.00-$1.25 average at the pump sometime over the next 12-18 months. Gas will average under $1.00 in some states by the time oil touches under $20 a barrel, anyone wishing and hoping for $100 better wait a LONNNNNNNNG TIME, oil will not be $100 + for quite some time at least 5 years, and $200 is certainly out of question for at least a decade or 2.


Charts Predict: Oil Heading towards $17

Sectors:Oil and Gas
By: CNBC.com | 16 Jan 2009 | 09:49 AM

The price of a barrel of oil could slump toward $25 and even lower as the economy continues to falter, Phil Roberts, technical analyst from Barclays Capital, told CNBC Friday.


“The downside risks are still very much there and this trend, you've got to respect it,” he said. “The deflationary cycle is still in play,” he added.
More...

===============
S2007;
Agree with much of that.Personaly i hope the demand destruction continues for gasoline. I enjoy trying to figure out more demand destruction for gasoline , including but not limited to ''electric lawnmower'' LOL:D

However CNBC or charts are not really predictions, if that were true, we would all be billionares:cool:

As far as respecting the trend, sure it could go down 50%/+ more;
and also respect its had 20days+ of higher lows, higher closes.
=======================================

Also, that 's simply an assumption that the war on terror will go as smoothly as since 9-11-2001/$150 oil . Extraordinary assumption;
epecially since merely pulling out of a country does not stop a terror war @ all. Never has, never will.

Also that is simply another assumption that hurricanes.................................................................................. will be as favorable in future years ,as the past years, which may or not be true at all.

:cool:
 
i am still having problems udnerstanding the risk in volatility. if in 30 days crude oil drops 50%, this goes to zero. what happens if crude rips up 50% in 30 days?
 
Quote from mindmerge2k:

i am still having problems udnerstanding the risk in volatility. if in 30 days crude oil drops 50%, this goes to zero. what happens if crude rips up 50% in 30 days?
More...

It would go down, but not to zero.

Oil went from 140 to 40... a 75% loss and it ain't zero.....

It is compounded daily. The following is the important part to remember.

*Oil would have to lose half in one day for DXO to go to zero.*

Otherwise, as days goes by, DXO takes smaller and smaller dollar cuts as the price shrinks, even though the % should be roughly 2x oil.
 
Quote from Haroki:

It would go down, but not to zero.

Oil went from 140 to 40... a 75% loss and it ain't zero.....

It is compounded daily. The following is the important part to remember.

*Oil would have to lose half in one day for DXO to go to zero.*

Otherwise, as days goes by, DXO takes smaller and smaller dollar cuts as the price shrinks, even though the % should be roughly 2x oil.
More...
==============================
Thoughtful points.Several other observations DTO[double bear] buy & sell volume really slimmed down at these price levels.

In DxO [ double bull ], losing 50% in one day, whatever the probabilities of that;
probably would not close @50% down/zero, due to super short profit covering [end of day.....] & some buyers jumping on the 50% level.
Not a pediction:cool:
 
Why the hell is DXO down 8% today?? Crude is down 53 cents and USO is off less than 1%.

I can't find much on the "Deutsche Bank Liquid Commodity index - Optimum Yield Oil Excess Return" either, which is the index this ETF seeks to track (X 2).
 
I've been watching DTO/DXO a lot over the last month, and today was easily the weirdest day I have ever seen with these stocks.

Crude went from around $34 to $38 a barrel, and DXO went from it's previous close of $2.53 to $2.36. Completely the opposite of what you would normally expect to see.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top