This would be true UNTIL the slope of the 17-minute measures reached a minimum threshold level, at which point, the strategy would SWITCH to entering positions following pullbacks in the 17-miniute trend.
Duxon's Journal on Trading Metals
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PRIMARY GUIDES:
Gold: Slope of the (golden) seven-minute price flow channel at 0.06% deviation, which is also the stop loss triggered when gold reverses direction. It is confirmed by the slope of, and its positional relationship with, the (green) 17-minute channel at 0.09% deviation—which is a stop loss for longer-term reversals and the signaler of stronger-than-average trends. Fluctuations in the progress (and pullbacks) within the seven-minute flow are tracked by the three-minute envelope at 0.04% deviation and the one-minute channel at 0.05% deviation.
Silver: Overall progress of the (bumblebee) 17-minute price flow channel at 0.20% deviation. (Due to its instability, its slope at any given moment cannot be trusted.) Extended and/or more radical trends and reversals are signaled by the (dark slate blue) 30-minute channel at 0.33% to 0.45% deviation. Positions are entered and exited as dictated by the interplay between the (cadet blue) six-minute channel at 0.04% deviation, the 8½-minute channel at 0.10% and 0.20% deviation, and the 18-minute envelope at 0.10% deviation.
Foreign Currency Pairs: Overall progress of the (black) 16-minute price flow channel(s) at 0.02% deviation and 0.06% deviation. (Due to their instability, their slope at any given moment cannot be trusted.) The two channels will form three levels, and generally speaking, candlesticks will primarily form within the lower level when the bearish sentiment is strong, or the upper level when the bullish bias is above average. This constitutes the immediate intraday trend. Fluctuations within it are tracked by the (tan) five-minute price range envelope. The longer-term trajectories are conveyed by the (green) 60- and (red) 120-minute measures.
Crude Oil: The intraday course of crude oil is reflected by the positional relationships between the (purple, fluctuating) 10-, (green) 24- and (yellow) 40-minute moving averages, along with the 60-minute temporal support/resistance channel.
Natural Gas: The overall progress of the 20-minute measures. (Due to their instability, their slope at any given moment cannot be trusted.)
Thursday | March 21, 2024 | 8:30 PM PST
Silver woke up this market cycle at around 5:07 PM PST and shortly thereafter rose to the top of the intraday price range. Then at 6:35 PM it broke out to the downside to the point of blazing a trail out to the exterior of even the 30-minute envelope. By 8:10 PM however, most of the bearish momentum had fizzled out.
Gold also became active at 5:07 PM. It spent about 30 minutes ascending, and was then tossed about in the waves until 6:16 PM, at which point it began a descent that was more-or-less still in progress at 8:02 PM.
Crude oil climbed from the beginning of the 24-hour market cycle (2 PM or 3 PM) and then began falling at 5 PM, with no signs of having stopped at 7:55.
At the start of the market cycle, natural gas continued the ascent it began beforehand, and has not stopped as of the time of this posting. (UPDATE: It finally began falling at around 8:47 PM.)
Silver woke up this market cycle at around 5:07 PM PST and shortly thereafter rose to the top of the intraday price range. Then at 6:35 PM it broke out to the downside to the point of blazing a trail out to the exterior of even the 30-minute envelope. By 8:10 PM however, most of the bearish momentum had fizzled out.
Gold also became active at 5:07 PM. It spent about 30 minutes ascending, and was then tossed about in the waves until 6:16 PM, at which point it began a descent that was more-or-less still in progress at 8:02 PM.
Crude oil climbed from the beginning of the 24-hour market cycle (2 PM or 3 PM) and then began falling at 5 PM, with no signs of having stopped at 7:55.
At the start of the market cycle, natural gas continued the ascent it began beforehand, and has not stopped as of the time of this posting. (UPDATE: It finally began falling at around 8:47 PM.)
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Natural gas continued to fall until roughly 12:12 AM, when it essentially died. It got back a little bit of life at 12:54 AM, but then died again from 1:16 AM to 3:34 AM, where it more-or-less revived, taking a short trip south before heading north.
Other than 6:03 PM to 8:02 PM and 12:40 AM to 1:40 AM (when the metal headed south for a second time) gold's price action has been essentially confined between the boundaries set by the projected intraday price range.
Crude oil was bounded by the 40-minute price range from the time bearish momentum fizzled out at around 8 PM until 11 PM, at which time it began seesawing upward until it took off with added momentum at 12:55 AM with no signs yet of reversing south. (This has resulted in the longer-term forecast having now turned bullish.) UPDATE: At 4:45 AM oil has just displayed a significant, if short-lived, plunge.
The ever-vacillating silver kind of leveled until 9:40 PM when it began winding its way south until 12:37 AM. It then headed north again until 2:32 AM, at which time is sort of leveled off until 4:20 AM. It then took a short 30-minute trip south until it shot north at 4:50.
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For silver it is the same as gold... 9 AM PST.
PRIMARY GUIDES REVISED:
Friday's activity led me to reevaluate (tweak) what I wrote about the primary guides for the various asset classes. For example...
Before I wrote that the intraday course of crude oil is reflected by the positional relationships between the fluctuating 10-minute baseline along with the 24- and 40-minute measures. However, that can probably be simplified by just stating it's sufficiently reflected by the slope of the 40-minute price range envelope at 0.30% deviation all on its own.
Also, I wrote that gold's guide was the slope of the seven-minute price flow channel, as confirmed by 17-minute channel. But now I'd say it's just the 17-minute measure alone, with a ten-minute (not seven-minute) envelope helping to pinpoint entries and exits.
For currency pairs, I said that the primary guide was the overall progress of the 16-minute channel, with the longer-term trajectories conveyed by the 60- and 120-minute measures. But after revisiting this class, I'm going to go with 60-minutes alone as the core intraday trend (as confirmed by 120-minutes). And everything from 30 minutes on down—including the 16-minute channel—is merely tracking fluctuations within (with or against) these two dominant trends.
(My opinions on silver and natural gas have essentially remained unchanged.)
Wednesday | March 27, 2024 | 5:10 AM PST
- Gold "popped" at around 2:40 PST this morning, then began "sinking" at 4:43.
- Silver kind of did the same thing, but less dramatically; and it started its descent four minutes earlier, at 4:39 AM.
- 2:40 AM was also roughly the time when crude oil transitioned from bearish to bullish.
Sunday | April 7, 2024 | 7:34 PM PST
Silver and gold took off 10 or 20 minutes after 6 PM PST. Crude oil reversed from bearish to bullish at 6:37 and natural gas is essentially dead. There's no telling when the commodities are going to make their moves, so now that I'm locked in on what I consider to be their key parameters, I need to code corresponding MT5 alert indicators to sound the alarm when I need to leave whatever I'm doing and return to one or more of the charts.
Silver and gold took off 10 or 20 minutes after 6 PM PST. Crude oil reversed from bearish to bullish at 6:37 and natural gas is essentially dead. There's no telling when the commodities are going to make their moves, so now that I'm locked in on what I consider to be their key parameters, I need to code corresponding MT5 alert indicators to sound the alarm when I need to leave whatever I'm doing and return to one or more of the charts.
My Views as of Saturday | April 13, 2024
For gold, silver and crude oil, price action at the micro level can be more-or-less adequately represented using a baseline somewhere in the range of 8 to 10 minutes, and a price flow channel somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 to 23 minutes.
But, not so when it comes to natural gas.
This commodity tends to trade kind of randomly between the upper and lower deviation levels within the 30-minute price range envelope, with fluctuations between these boundaries tracked in a relatively crude manner by three-, six-, ten- and 15-minute measures.
Consequently, it probably makes more sense to attempt trading gas in the direction suggested by the slope of its day-to-day measure, the five-hour trend; as price is rejected at key support/resistance levels represented by a 2½-hour price range envelope.
In the case of gold, its ultimate or eventual destination over the longer-run is perhaps best reflected by the 3⅓-hour trend, with shorter-term fluctuations in the same or opposite direction tracked by the two faster measures mentioned previously.
As for silver, it prefers four hours as its day-to-day indicator, using a two-hour envelope to calculate typical support/resistance levels, again using the two faster measures mentioned previously to recognize rejection when it occurs at these locations.
Unlike the other three commodities, crude oil has a much faster "longer-term" indicator, with its ultimate/eventual destination conveyed by a mere 80-minute channel; as the 10-minute baseline and the 23-minute price flow channel once again trail the fluctuations within.
(Forex relies on three- and 11-hours for its longer-term framework, with 15-, 30- and to a lesser degree, 60-minutes identifying intraday reversals.)
For gold, silver and crude oil, price action at the micro level can be more-or-less adequately represented using a baseline somewhere in the range of 8 to 10 minutes, and a price flow channel somewhere in the neighborhood of 20 to 23 minutes.
But, not so when it comes to natural gas.
This commodity tends to trade kind of randomly between the upper and lower deviation levels within the 30-minute price range envelope, with fluctuations between these boundaries tracked in a relatively crude manner by three-, six-, ten- and 15-minute measures.
Consequently, it probably makes more sense to attempt trading gas in the direction suggested by the slope of its day-to-day measure, the five-hour trend; as price is rejected at key support/resistance levels represented by a 2½-hour price range envelope.
In the case of gold, its ultimate or eventual destination over the longer-run is perhaps best reflected by the 3⅓-hour trend, with shorter-term fluctuations in the same or opposite direction tracked by the two faster measures mentioned previously.
As for silver, it prefers four hours as its day-to-day indicator, using a two-hour envelope to calculate typical support/resistance levels, again using the two faster measures mentioned previously to recognize rejection when it occurs at these locations.
Unlike the other three commodities, crude oil has a much faster "longer-term" indicator, with its ultimate/eventual destination conveyed by a mere 80-minute channel; as the 10-minute baseline and the 23-minute price flow channel once again trail the fluctuations within.
(Forex relies on three- and 11-hours for its longer-term framework, with 15-, 30- and to a lesser degree, 60-minutes identifying intraday reversals.)
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