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Here is your thread on this topic...
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/thre...e-financial-aspect-of-building-wealth.340718/
NUMERICAL PRICE PREDICTION UPDATE:
Here is what I have confirmed and corrected since last October (three or four months ago):
Here is what I have confirmed and corrected since last October (three or four months ago):
- Actually, I want to trade in the general overall direction of the eight-hour baseline—NOT the six-hour baseline.
- This will in turn be directed by the slope of the 90-minute measure ONLY (the 2½-hour measure is too lagging) along with a slightly faster measure that shall remain nameless.
- But even so, the gist of price direction from an immediate standpoint is conveyed by the 16-minute baseline.
Dealing effectively with this "exceptionally challenging environment in which most currency pairs have been reluctant to sustain/maintain a given trend in one direction or another for any appreciable stretch of time" has come to mean virtually ignoring the eight-hour baseline and being directed primarily by the slope of the 45-minute, rather than the 90-minute, trend.
The other most-closely-monitored measures are the 20-minute price range envelope(s) at 0.11% and 0.19% deviation, and the four- and eight-hour baselines.
HOW I DESCRIBE MY SYSTEM TODAY...
I came up with my own strategy for trading Forex, which I call "Numerical Price Prediction" (or NPP).
It depends as much as possible on statistical analysis and mathematical probability, and is patterned after the methodology (and computer models) used by meteorologist to predict the weather.
The strategy stems from the application of five biblical principles, chief among them being: (1) test everything and only keep what proves to be valid and reliable; (2) learn to rightly interpret clues offered by what you see; (3) good plans usually result from consulting with several counselors; and (4) systems operate at peak performance when all their component parts are in sync.
The first principle led me to reject all standard indicators except for moving averages and moving average envelopes (i.e., no stochastic oscillators, RSI, CCI, MACD, etc.). It also led me to dismiss nearly every other system out there, such as Elliot waves, Fibonacci ratios, harmonic patterns, pivot points and the like.
So then, the foundation of NPP is the use of baselines—key moving averages designed to inform traders as to whether a given asset's sentiment is bullish, bearish, or neutral. However, the big difference is that the moving averages I use are calculated with respect to physical time rather than defined by periods...
In a sense, the system also incorporates the idea of cycle theory, which holds that cyclical forces, both long and short, drive price movements, and can be used to anticipate turning points. It is also compatible with Edgar Peters' fractal market hypothesis, which views financial markets as fractal in the sense that they follow cyclical and replicable patterns—ones consisting of fragmented shapes that break down into parts which then replicate the shape of the whole...
So then, when all is said and done, my strategy (it seems to me) is akin to what was put forth by Jim Hurst in the 1970s. (But, his ideas did not come to my attention until after my own system had already been established.)
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