Saturday / October 23, 2021
So, after spending a couple of months employing the Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) system from a number of angles, my final recommendation is that I trade in the direction of the
24-hour trend as confirmed by the
36-hour baseline. The easiest way to do this is to use one-hour charts loaded with the
36-,
24-,
16-,
8-,
2- and
1-hour baselines, along with the
24- and
8-hour price range envelopes. Entry levels will vary depending on the strength of the daily trend.
When lacking in momentum, reversals with the highest probability of leading to successful trades occur at the outer edges of the 8-hour price range envelope at 0.60% deviation (though less extreme levels which can also work at times are found at 0.45% and 0.30% deviation).
This is especially true when the reversals occur on the "far/wrong" side of the 24-hour baseline. However, when an asset is trending strongly, there is little chance the rate will be able to pull back to such a degree, in which case, the best one can hope for is a pullback behind the 16-hour baseline. And yet, when currency pairs are under the influence of monster momentum, pullbacks behind even the 16-hour measure are rare, making pullbacks behind the 8-hour baseline all that a trader is likely to witness.
In addition to making these trade opportunities more obvious, working with one-hour charts (as opposed to lower time frames) also helps to minimize any temptation to attempt trading less significant fluctuations in price. (By the way, these particular setups would probably be difficult, if not impossible, to recognize/identify on higher time frame charts).
Nonetheless, to enter positions at optimal levels, it is probably a good idea to drop down to at least a 15-minute context, and look for the 15-minute baseline to cross above the 34-minute baseline IF the 34-minute baseline is already sloping or BEGINS to slope in the desired direction (the direction of the daily trend) AND both of these measures are crossing to the corresponding side of the 90-minute baseline (if not the 2-hour baseline as well).
Use the bands of the 2-hour price range envelope at 0.30% deviation to set rational/reasonable stop losses and take-profit targets. (Reversals in the 34-minute price range envelope between and beyond 0.04% out to 0.09% deviation that were referenced in previous posts are too insignificant to be of concern when approaching the market using this particular [longer-term] style of trading.)
