Duxon's Archive

[expiated]

That should have said "the 13-minute price range envelope," and NOT "the 26-minute price range envelope."

While it's true that if the 8-hour, 90-minute and 26-minute baselines are all aligned, I should enter positions when the 4½-minute price range envelope pulls back behind the 13-minute baseline/moving average, it IS the 26-minute baseline that represents the general flow of the intraday intermediate trend and NOT the 13-minute price range envelope; which might best serve to help gauge stop loss and take-profit levels (at 0.7% deviation), along with the use of its mean and the 4½-minute price range envelope to determine optimal entry levels.

(More conservative take-profit targets might be set as suggested by the 8½-minute price range envelope 0.04% deviation.)

 

[expiated]

As of today, I am electing to plot the 10- and 12-hour baselines on my charts along with the eight-hour measure to help this general flow of price action stand out more prominently.

Also, in moving out to one-hour charts, it is clear that the eight-hour trend, and even the day-to-day trend, sometimes move against the direction to which rates are genuinely committed, which is more faithfully represented by the 48-hour baseline.

But, this does not mean that I look to the two-day moving average to alert me as to when a given currency pair might be reversing direction. The measure exhibits far too much lag to function in this capacity. Rather, I always want to be trading in sync with the eight-hour trend.

Accordingly, if the “triple cluster” described above pulls back against the two-day (and/or 1½-day) trend line(s) in the middle of a well-established trend that is obviously supported by a substantial amount of momentum, I am more likely to wait to see if the faster trend lines reverse direction to rejoin the slower ones, and to then enter positions in the direction of this more established course, if and when they do.

On the other hand, if the triple cluster pushes on to venture beyond the 1-, 1½- and/or two-day baseline(s), I am likely to enter positions as rates come out of pullbacks in the 90-minute trend to begin making progress in the direction of the newly established "horizon."

In short, I have no interest whatsoever in trying to predict or forecast what will happen ahead of time—but want to simply obey the present or current dictate of the triple cluster (i.e., the slope(s) of the eight-, ten- and 12-hour moving averages).

 

[expiated]

I always want to be trading in sync with the eight-hour trend.

A closer looks suggests that in reality, I always want to be trading in sync with the two-hour trend. So, to maximize the likelihood of trading profitably, I should only trade in the direction of the two-hour trend when it matches the slope of the eight-hour baseline.

Also, looking to confirm when the eight-hour measure is aligned with the more general flow of price action, I plan to try using the 16-, 18- and 20-hour measures as "landmarks." Hence, I'll want to be trading in sync with the two-hour trend when it is aligned with the eight-hour measure when the eight-hour baseline is in turn headed in the same overall direction as the 16-, 18-, and 20-hour moving averages...

 

[expiated]

A closer looks suggests that in reality, I always want to be trading in sync with the two-hour trend.

Enter positions as the 17-minute tend line begins to advance (along with the 4½-minute baseline) and exit positions when it/they begin to retreat (inside the 90-minute price range envelope).

 

[expiated]

So, to maximize the likelihood of trading profitably, I should only trade in the direction of the two-hour trend when it matches the slope of the eight-hour baseline, looking to enter positions as the 17-minute trend line begins to advance (along with the 4½-minute baseline) and exit positions when it/they begin to retreat (inside the 90-minute price range envelope), with the retreat and/or advancement of the 17- and 4½-minute baselines confirmed by the 24- to 30-minute moving average cluster.

 

[expiated]

The last 24 hours have confirmed all of the above, making Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) as precise as I can get it, as well as clarifying how to best implement it. That frees me up this weekend to do whatever I want. There is nothing else to do on this front..

 

[expiated]

There is nothing else to do on this front.

And yet, I found room for improvement...

The red 2½-hour baseline reflects the general flow of intraday price action, as does the 3½-hour price range envelope(s). The orange 47-minute baseline conveys the immediate intraday bias/sentiment, with the 4½-, 10-, 17-, and 34-minute moving averages tracking price fluctuations above, below, and across this measure.

 

[expiated]

 

[expiated]

Thursday, September 30, 2021
Well self, after having pretty much tried it all, let's just say that in the final analysis, you are NOT a set your trades and walk away kind of operator.

You might not be a "set your trades and walk away" kind of operator, but I suspect if you focus on...

1. The slope of the 24-hour baseline
2. The 24-hour price range envelope and where candles are forming within this domain
3. The slope of the 48-hour baseline
4. The 48-hour price range envelope(s) and where candles are forming within it/them
5. The trajectory of the 16-hour baseline and its relationship with the 24-hour trend line
6. When rates are coming out of pullbacks in the 16-hour baseline
7. When rates are reversing direction after testing the outer limits of the 24- and/or 48-hour price ranges

...that you might very well be able to capitalize on some monster moves in price action. Let's make this your focus in the upcoming week, as you use the 4½-minute to 2½-hour measures to confirm any trade decisions you make based on the above longer-term sign posts.

 

[expiated]

You might not be a "set your trades and walk away" kind of operator, but I suspect if you focus on...

1. The slope of the 24-hour baseline
2. The 24-hour price range envelope and where candles are forming within this domain
3. The slope of the 48-hour baseline
4. The 48-hour price range envelope(s) and where candles are forming within it/them
5. The trajectory of the 16-hour baseline and its relationship with the 24-hour trend line
6. When rates are coming out of pullbacks in the 16-hour baseline
7. When rates are reversing direction after testing the outer limits of the 24- and/or 48-hour price ranges

...that you might very well be able to capitalize on some monster moves in price action. Let's make this your focus in the upcoming week, as you use the 4½-minute to 2½-hour measures to confirm any trade decisions you make based on the above longer-term sign posts.

EURAUD pulled back behind the 16-hour baseline when the 16-, 24- and 48-hour baselines were all still bearish. But, now that the 4½- to 26-minute moving averages have all flipped from bullish to bearish, I went ahead and entered a short position (rather than wait for the 2- and 4-hour moving averages to turn south as well, as I probably should).