Duxon's Archive

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It should be noted that this measure itself (the 6-hour baseline) has its own pivotal threshold, at 0.25% deviation.

Make sure this is not supposed to be 0.40%.

 

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Saturday / June 19, 2021 / 10:56 PM PST

You are completely throwing out your view of the 16-hour baseline as conveying the overall flow of currency pairs from a day-to-day perspective. Though this assessment might be true, the measure simply is not precise enough to make it actionable. For the "ultimate" direction at the intraday level, you want to rely on the 6-hour baseline; with the 2-hour trend being more immediate, as confirmed by the 4-hour baseline; and the 20-minute baseline conveying the short-term trend, as confirmed by the 40-minute measure.

The longer-term "gist" of price flow is represented by the two-day price range, where you are actually more interested in the relative position of rates within the range itself than in the slope of the measure, which doesn't really figure into much of anything.

Regarding this post from earlier...

You are actually looking at a range (or region/zone) stretching from about 0.30% to 0.50% deviation.

 

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Sunday / June 20, 2021 / 9:00 PM PST

I haven't increased my standard trade size to 0.03 lots yet, but if the ICT version of NPP continues to bear fruit like this during the remainder of this week, that's probably what I'm likely to do beginning next week.

 

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You are completely throwing out your view of the 16-hour baseline as conveying the overall flow of currency pairs from a day-to-day perspective. Though this assessment might be true, the measure simply is not precise enough to make it actionable. For the "ultimate" direction at the intraday level, you want to rely on the 6-hour baseline; with the 2-hour trend being more immediate, as confirmed by the 4-hour baseline; and the 20-minute baseline conveying the short-term trend, as confirmed by the 40-minute measure. The longer-term "gist" of price flow is represented by the two-day price range, where you are actually more interested in the relative position of rates within the range itself than in the slope of the measure, which doesn't really figure into much of anything.

So then, it would seem that for intraday trading, you want to enter positions when the 2- and 4-hour baselines are aligned, as price is rejected by support or resistance (as appropriate), as identified by the upper or lower band of the forty-minute price range envelope, and/or the nine-hour temporal support or resistance level, and/or the upper or lower band(s) of the twenty-minute price range envelope.

Prime entry points?

However, unless candlesticks have just make contact with the nine-hour support/resistance level, trades should only be executed when the 20- and 40-minute baselines are aligned with the slopes of the 2- and 4-hour baselines, or at the very least, when they are more-or-less neutral!!!

 

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I haven't increased my standard trade size to 0.03 lots yet, but if the ICT version of NPP continues to bear fruit like this during the remainder of this week, that's probably what I'm likely to do beginning next week.

I went back down to 0.01 while experimenting with ICT, but this seems to be the culmination of all the fiddling, subtle adjustments and nuanced insights to the absolute best settings and parameters for trading Numerical Price Prediction.

Consequently, this morning I began to go back to trading 0.02-sized lots, and as I wrote above, I'm hoping that by next week ICT will have proven itself valid and reliable enough to justify my moving up to 0.03.

(P.S. A reasonable take-profit target might be the 9-hour temporal support or resistance level, as appropriate.)

 

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Tuesday / June 22, 2021 / 7:45 PM PST

So then, it would seem that for intraday trading, you want to enter positions when the 2- and 4-hour baselines are aligned, as price is rejected by support or resistance (as appropriate), as identified by the upper or lower band of the forty-minute price range envelope, and/or the nine-hour temporal support or resistance level, and/or the upper or lower band(s) of the twenty-minute price range envelope. However, unless candlesticks have just make contact with the nine-hour support/resistance level, trades should only be executed when the 20- and 40-minute baselines are aligned with the slopes of the 2- and 4-hour baselines, or at the very least, when they are more-or-less neutral!!!

Consider simply using the 30-minute price range envelope at 0.09% and 0.20% deviation rather than using both the 20- and 40-minute price range envelopes.

Also include the 2-hour price range envelope at 0.20% deviation for periods of low volatility/liquidity, 0.28% for normal/typical volatility/liquidity, and 0.65% for strongly trending markets.

Compare the two-hour temporal support/resistance level with nine hours and evaluate whether it actually makes sense to include the nine-hour measure. (I just took a look and it appears that the only reason for possibly including nine-hour temporal support/resistance is if you wish to use this measure to help clarify when a wholesale reversal in the intraday trend might be in progress.)

 

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At some point in the future, you're likely to want the information from this entry you posted in the "Anyone use moving Average indicators?" thread, and not be able to find it... so go ahead and re-post it here, just in case:

 

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Tuesday Evening, June 22, 2021

In reading recent posts to the above-mentioned thread, it just dawned on me that I am very much in the process of moving away from scalping, which used to be my bread and butter, and for me, meant averaging around two to seven pips per trade, with a maximum of perhaps 10 pips every now and then.

Most recent trades...

 

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THOUGHTS ON TRADING ONE-MINUTE CHARTS:

The gist of intraday price flow is reflected by the 20-, 30- and 40-minute price range envelopes, and you used to think the 40-minute baseline was "the man," but are now inclined to throw the 40-minute measures out as being a bit too slow.

So then, let's say the 20-minute price range envelopes at 0.09% to 0.14% deviation convey general price flow within this time frame, with the 7- to 10-minute baselines tracking the waves and suggesting entry and exit points/levels along with the 20-minute price range envelope at 0.05% deviation and above, and the 60-minute temporal support/resistance levels.

Key bands for defining the more typical limitations of price fluctuations depending on market volatility/liquidity are the 35-minute price range envelopes at 0.9%, 0.20% and 0.30% deviation, and the 2-hour price range envelopes at 0.20% through 0.30% deviation.

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That leaves you with these two chart configurations as the only ones you've saved out of the hundreds and hundreds you've tried out over the last ten years.