Use 8¾ hours instead of 20.
Duxon's Archive
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Wednesday / June 9, 2021 / 7:45 AM PST
NEW INSIGHT!
The two-hour price range envelope has taken on new significance. As a result, you can probably dispense with the six-hour price range envelope, which is rendered even less necessary by the 20-hour temporal support/resistance channel, though the six-hour baseline maintains its function and importance.
The 16-hour price range envelope maintains its function and importance as well. However, the slope of the four-day price range envelope probably has no relevance with respect to intraday trading, with the range itself being the only aspect of the measure that need ever be consulted.
If you're able, look into this, since you've still been using 20. Is this really true? Should you be using this measure instead? I kind of doubt it.
NEW INSIGHT!
The two-hour price range envelope has taken on new significance. As a result, you can probably dispense with the six-hour price range envelope, which is rendered even less necessary by the 20-hour temporal support/resistance channel, though the six-hour baseline maintains its function and importance.
The 16-hour price range envelope maintains its function and importance as well. However, the slope of the four-day price range envelope probably has no relevance with respect to intraday trading, with the range itself being the only aspect of the measure that need ever be consulted.
My best [educated?] guess is that the 8¾ measure only applies when there is a pronounced trend in the 16-hour price range envelope and one is looking to enter positions as price is rejected by temporal support or resistance following pullbacks.
Hopefully, with this new perspective, whatever last bit of residual "mystery" was remaining in my technical analysis view of the Forex market has now seen the light of day. So, if I can maintain this morning's success rate for the remainder of this week…
…and hopefully even improve on it as I apply the guidelines generated by the final versions of my 60- and 5-minute charts (wait...I just realized there's only two days left) I will seriously consider raising the average size of my trades another increment beginning next week..
The only loss stemming from this morning's activity was delivered by EURUSD...
But, as the image below illustrates, this was not due to any kind of failure in the system, but rather, happened as a result of the shenanigans of the big institutional players...
Thursday / June 10, 2021 / 10:25 AM PST
I've probably written in the past that rather than stating "the trend is your friend," from my perspective, it would be more accurate to say that… "the trend is a friend."
It seems to me that what would have to be considered at least equally important is the location of rates within the entirety of a given asset's price distribution...
However, this idea cannot be referred to as "position trading" given that this term already constitutes a long-term buy-and-hold method of investment.
So, in trying to think of another way to refer to it, I've settled on the notion of consensus trading.
Investors often speak of trend lines. But, I've ceased to think of trends as being represented by lines, and have come to conceptualize them instead as "belts," with the location of price within the expanse of values constituting the width of these strips being just as important as the general direction each "breadth of values" is headed (when I'm deciding exactly where to enter and exit positions).
My final decision is always made based on the consensus of various input data, sampled in multiple time frames, including: baselines, market structure, temporal support and resistance, horizontal support and resistance, price ranges (i.e., statistical support and resistance), and reoccurring chart patterns.
This is what constitutes Numerical Price Prediction in a nutshell.
I've probably written in the past that rather than stating "the trend is your friend," from my perspective, it would be more accurate to say that… "the trend is a friend."
It seems to me that what would have to be considered at least equally important is the location of rates within the entirety of a given asset's price distribution...
However, this idea cannot be referred to as "position trading" given that this term already constitutes a long-term buy-and-hold method of investment.
So, in trying to think of another way to refer to it, I've settled on the notion of consensus trading.
Investors often speak of trend lines. But, I've ceased to think of trends as being represented by lines, and have come to conceptualize them instead as "belts," with the location of price within the expanse of values constituting the width of these strips being just as important as the general direction each "breadth of values" is headed (when I'm deciding exactly where to enter and exit positions).
My final decision is always made based on the consensus of various input data, sampled in multiple time frames, including: baselines, market structure, temporal support and resistance, horizontal support and resistance, price ranges (i.e., statistical support and resistance), and reoccurring chart patterns.
This is what constitutes Numerical Price Prediction in a nutshell.
Saturday / June 12, 2021 / 9:45 AM PST
...Yeah Baby!!!
The configuration from the previous post is awesome! It's marvelous for swing trading, but after transposing it to my five-minute charts this morning, I see how it has the potential to revolutionize what is already a wildly successful approach to day trading. I then went ahead and adapted it to one-minute charts as well, and even though I'm already profitable, I would not be surprised to witness this fresh perspective take things to a whole new level!
The guy I was paying to format (for Kindle Direct Publishing) the book I'm writing (for a lump sum payment of $100) contracted his compensation in two installments. I sent him the first $50 yesterday after he completed the first milestone, but when I asked him a number of questions about the document he submitted, he refunded my money, essentially stating that he did not think the job he was doing was meeting his own standards and expectations.
Of course, I'm not going to argue with him, and I'll gladly take back the money. I'm kind of thinking this might be an omen of sorts not to publish the book just yet, but rather, to wait until I've already made gobs of dough via trading the system (God willing) and then decide what to do at that point.
I've read that Jim Simons launched his fund in 1982 from a strip mall in Long Island using an expanded form of Leonard Baum's mathematical models, improved by algebraist James Ax, to explore correlations from which they could profit; and that Elwyn Berlekamp was instrumental in evolving trading to shorter-dated, pure systems driven decision-making.
(The Baum–Welch algorithm is a special case of the EM algorithm used to find the unknown parameters of a hidden Markov model (HMM), making use of the forward-backward algorithm to compute the statistics for the expectation step.)
(An expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm is an iterative method to find (local) maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates of parameters in statistical models, where the model depends on unobserved latent variables. The EM iteration alternates between performing an expectation (E) step, which creates a function for the expectation of the log-likelihood evaluated using the current estimate for the parameters, and a maximization (M) step, which computes parameters maximizing the expected log-likelihood found on the E step. These parameter-estimates are then used to determine the distribution of the latent variables in the next E step.)
So, after I finish the entire book, hopefully by the end of this month, rather than publish it, I plan to begin seriously seeking the advice from people I respect regarding the feasibility of formally partnering up with a James Ax or Elwyn Berlekamp type individual (though not at their level) who knows math and computers and would be genuinely interested in working with me to automate my system.
(Over a six-month period, Elwyn Berlekamp worked with Simons, Sandor Straus, and consultant Henry Laufer to overhaul Medallion's trading system. In 1990 Elwyn led Medallion to a 55.9% gain, net of fees, and then returned to teaching at Berkeley after selling out his Axcom shares to Simons at six times the price he had paid 16 months earlier. Straus took the reins of Medallion's revamped trading system, and Medallion returned 39.4% in 1991, 34% in 1992 and 39.1% in 1993. They continued hiring mathematicians, engineers, and scientists and expanded into trading stocks as well as futures. The Medallion fund became the most successful hedge fund ever, averaging a 71.8% annual return, before fees, from 1994 through mid-2014.)
...Yeah Baby!!!
The configuration from the previous post is awesome! It's marvelous for swing trading, but after transposing it to my five-minute charts this morning, I see how it has the potential to revolutionize what is already a wildly successful approach to day trading. I then went ahead and adapted it to one-minute charts as well, and even though I'm already profitable, I would not be surprised to witness this fresh perspective take things to a whole new level!
The guy I was paying to format (for Kindle Direct Publishing) the book I'm writing (for a lump sum payment of $100) contracted his compensation in two installments. I sent him the first $50 yesterday after he completed the first milestone, but when I asked him a number of questions about the document he submitted, he refunded my money, essentially stating that he did not think the job he was doing was meeting his own standards and expectations.
Of course, I'm not going to argue with him, and I'll gladly take back the money. I'm kind of thinking this might be an omen of sorts not to publish the book just yet, but rather, to wait until I've already made gobs of dough via trading the system (God willing) and then decide what to do at that point.
I've read that Jim Simons launched his fund in 1982 from a strip mall in Long Island using an expanded form of Leonard Baum's mathematical models, improved by algebraist James Ax, to explore correlations from which they could profit; and that Elwyn Berlekamp was instrumental in evolving trading to shorter-dated, pure systems driven decision-making.
(The Baum–Welch algorithm is a special case of the EM algorithm used to find the unknown parameters of a hidden Markov model (HMM), making use of the forward-backward algorithm to compute the statistics for the expectation step.)
(An expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm is an iterative method to find (local) maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates of parameters in statistical models, where the model depends on unobserved latent variables. The EM iteration alternates between performing an expectation (E) step, which creates a function for the expectation of the log-likelihood evaluated using the current estimate for the parameters, and a maximization (M) step, which computes parameters maximizing the expected log-likelihood found on the E step. These parameter-estimates are then used to determine the distribution of the latent variables in the next E step.)
So, after I finish the entire book, hopefully by the end of this month, rather than publish it, I plan to begin seriously seeking the advice from people I respect regarding the feasibility of formally partnering up with a James Ax or Elwyn Berlekamp type individual (though not at their level) who knows math and computers and would be genuinely interested in working with me to automate my system.
(Over a six-month period, Elwyn Berlekamp worked with Simons, Sandor Straus, and consultant Henry Laufer to overhaul Medallion's trading system. In 1990 Elwyn led Medallion to a 55.9% gain, net of fees, and then returned to teaching at Berkeley after selling out his Axcom shares to Simons at six times the price he had paid 16 months earlier. Straus took the reins of Medallion's revamped trading system, and Medallion returned 39.4% in 1991, 34% in 1992 and 39.1% in 1993. They continued hiring mathematicians, engineers, and scientists and expanded into trading stocks as well as futures. The Medallion fund became the most successful hedge fund ever, averaging a 71.8% annual return, before fees, from 1994 through mid-2014.)
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Monday / June 14, 2021
FINAL CONCLUSIONS:
A lot of people say that one-minute charts are random. In a way, that's true, but in another sense, that's not true at all. Traders who say one-minute charts are random simply don't see the ways in which these charts (in the context of the Forex market) constitute orderly systems. Those who say trading one-minute charts is tantamount to trading noise are simply speaking for themselves. It's only noise if one doesn't know what he or she is looking at.
Swing trading profitably using Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) is very doable, but even so, this is very inefficient. Trading efficiently, with maximum precision and accuracy and minimum draw down, requires intraday trading—bobbing and weaving in and out of waves and cycles so that one catches every single surge and avoids every single retreat (theoretically) or takes advantage of both advances AND pullbacks to generate profits in BOTH directions.
FINAL CONCLUSIONS:
A lot of people say that one-minute charts are random. In a way, that's true, but in another sense, that's not true at all. Traders who say one-minute charts are random simply don't see the ways in which these charts (in the context of the Forex market) constitute orderly systems. Those who say trading one-minute charts is tantamount to trading noise are simply speaking for themselves. It's only noise if one doesn't know what he or she is looking at.
Swing trading profitably using Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) is very doable, but even so, this is very inefficient. Trading efficiently, with maximum precision and accuracy and minimum draw down, requires intraday trading—bobbing and weaving in and out of waves and cycles so that one catches every single surge and avoids every single retreat (theoretically) or takes advantage of both advances AND pullbacks to generate profits in BOTH directions.
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So then, when it comes to the ICT version of NPP (for irreducible complexity trading—not for information communication technology) the two-day price range at 0.45%, 0.90% and 1.35% deviation constitutes three key thresholds.
Post #119 from the "Beta Testing the New Nadex Trading Platform" thread:
But, regarding the recommendation that reversals where rates are exiting any of these levels be confirmed via the 6-hour baseline, it should be noted that this measure itself (the 6-hour baseline) has its own pivotal threshold, at 0.25% deviation, that should always be considered in relation to the associated envelope’s location within the 2-day price range, as well as the direction in which the 2-day price range envelope is sloping.
Post #119 from the "Beta Testing the New Nadex Trading Platform" thread:
But, regarding the recommendation that reversals where rates are exiting any of these levels be confirmed via the 6-hour baseline, it should be noted that this measure itself (the 6-hour baseline) has its own pivotal threshold, at 0.25% deviation, that should always be considered in relation to the associated envelope’s location within the 2-day price range, as well as the direction in which the 2-day price range envelope is sloping.