Duxon's Archive

[expiated]

Continue to follow these pairs and see if price makes it all the way back to the baseline.

CADJPY took 1¼ hours to regress/revert all the way back to the mean.

USDCHF took 35 minutes and USDCAD took 55 minutes.

Other pairs, such as EURUAD, AUDJPY, AUDUSD, NZDJPY, and NZDUSD are seeing rates pull away from the mean, dragging their corresponding baselines along with them.

 

[expiated]

Monday / May 24, 2021 / 12:00 Noon PST

You know what? On May 14th you wrote that, "The 16-hour baseline is more-or-less the arbiter of whether the intraday bias is bullish or bearish."

You've also written that at the intraday level, you should trade exclusively in the direction of the slope of the four- (and two-) hour baseline(s).

Consequently, I'm thinking you ought to just ignore the four- and eight-hour price range envelopes, and enter positions when the 40-, 120-, and/or 240-minute baselines reverse direction on the far side of the 16-hour price range envelope away from the direction in which it is sloping, anywhere between 0.20% to 0.75% deviation.

 

[expiated]

Wednesday / May 26, 2021 / 8:35 AM PST

I'm returning to this thread after a year-and-a-half so as to make it unnecessary to come up with a name for this final "wee" version of Numerical Price Prediction, which is taking everything that applies from the final DOT-TAB version (with which I am 100% satisfied) and translating it down to the five-minute time frame...

I feel like I’m in a place of relatively satisfying resolution here—where trading is becoming more-or-less routine and I’m simply locking down a few things here and there. Yes, I’m about 95% satisfied with all the claims and assumptions that go along with Numerical Price Prediction as-is.

When the 2- and 4-hour baselines are sloping in the same direction, it's possible that the space between them constitutes prime territory for entering short-term positions.

This still holds true, but at this point, I'm not even incorporating it into my protocol(s).

Well, if the 16- and 8-hour baselines are not up to snuff when it comes to providing a money-making treasure map displaying where price is going at the intraday level, it must be the 4-hour baseline that fills this role (within the constraints of the 8-hour price range envelope).

Naw... it's within the constraints of the 4- and 16-hour price range envelopes.

You can get rid of the 8-hour price range. You're no longer using it. And use two levels for the 16-hour price range, with the typical range being around 0.80% deviation and the extreme range being around 1.35% deviation (not 1.20%). Add the 4-hour price range envelope, with the typical range being around 0.25% deviation and the more extreme level in the neighborhood 0.45% deviation.

This is it here. This is where I'm at... where I've pretty much settled in...

I'll eventually add the 2- and 4-hour baselines to incorporate what I mentioned above about the space between them, but between this main chart and lower panel configuration, I'm likely to be "living" here in the foreseeable future when it comes to trading Forex.

 

[expiated]

 

[expiated]

Culminating Numerical Price Prediction DOT-TAB Trading System as of Friday / May 28, 2021 / 1:05 PM PST:​

1. Check to see in which direction the 4-day 2-day price range envelope is sloping, if at all.
2. Determine in which direction the 16-hour 6-hour baseline is sloping. (Typically, you will only be entering positions when the slope of the 4-hour 2-hour baseline and 4-hour baseline match this trajectory. The 16-6-hour baseline is more-or-less the arbiter of whether the day-to-day intraday bias is bullish or bearish.)
3. If the 4-day 2-day price range envelope is sloping upward, look to enter positions while candlesticks are located in the bottom half of this price range (following upward reversals in the 16-hour 2-hour [to 6-hour?] baseline). If the 2-day price range envelope is sloping downward, look to enter positions when candlesticks are located in the top half of this price range (following downward reversals in the 16-hour 2-hour [to 6-hour?] baseline).
4. The ideal scenario is when the 16-hour 2-day price range envelope and the 4-day 6-hour price range envelope baseline are both sloping in the same direction!
5. The best time to enter positions is when price is bouncing off (as it is rejected by) the 16-hour 20-hour temporal support/resistance level, or the 24-hour temporal support/resistance level, as appropriate. (The use of the 2-hour price range envelope at 0.22% deviation has been temporarily/indefinitely suspended changed to 0.32% deviation).
6. A more-or-less reasonable take-profit target is the "far side" of the 8-hour price range envelope, or the 16-hour 20-hour temporal support/resistance level, as appropriate.
7. You can also enter positions when the 20-, 40-, and 60-minute baselines are crossing BACK over the 2-hour baseline and/or 4-hour baseline AFTER candlesticks have been painting near or beyond the outer edge of the 8-hour price range 2-day price range at 0.90% to 1.50% deviation. This is especially true if price has, at the same time, made contact with or breached the outer edges of the 16- and/or 24-hour 20-hour temporal support/resistance level, as appropriate price ranges as well.

 

[expiated]

Friday / May 28, 2021 / 6:25 PM PST​

 

[expiated]

Saturday / May 29, 2021 / 10:00 AM PST

Not wishing to hassle with all the ins and outs of selling a book on Amazon, I've actually hired someone else to format my manuscript for the company's Kindle Direct Publishing. This has somewhat put my feet to the fire in terms of disciplining myself, given that I said I would forward the finished product by the middle of June.

The process of writing this final version for the consumption of people not familiar with my system, along with the last two weeks’ decisions to delete the 8- and 16-hour baselines and/or price range envelopes from my charts in favor of the 6-hour baseline (joining the 2- and 4-hour baselines as key measures) has resulted in some interesting adjustments in how I view price action with respect to foreign currency pairs.

In addition to what I just wrote, the hourly price range envelope has been assigned new significance. Moreover, the 4-day temporal support/resistance level is now regarded as being much, much more important that the 14-, 16-, 20-, or 24-hour temporal levels, which I'm not even planning to keep on my charts any longer.

It will be interesting to see how all this impacts next week's trading.

 

[expiated]

Saturday / May 29, 2021 / 4:45 PM PST

The protocol for guerrilla style trading suggested by the (5-minute) chart configured for my book is very different from the directions pasted down below (from last Saturday)...

1. First of all, it recommends checking what is the consensus opinion about direction rather than any particular measure, which includes the slopes of the 40-minute, 2-hour, 4-hour, and 6-hour baselines; and especially the slope of the dynamic adaptive 60-minute price range envelope—not to mention the positions/arrangement of the four baselines just mentioned in relation to one another.
2. It is also extremely important to note whether candlesticks are painting above or below the 40-minute baseline, or right on top of it, and to act accordingly.
3. Anticipate intraday reversals at the upper and lower bands of the dynamic adaptive 60-minute price range envelope IF an asset is not trending.
4. Pocket gains when the candlesticks hop back inside the "15-minute shadow envelope" against the direction of the intraday trend, if available.
5. And re-enter positions as candlesticks cross back over the 20-minute baseline to rejoin the intraday trend.

(In testing this out by scrolling 5-minute charts from left to right while making forecasts predicting what will come next, this seems to work very well. But, what happens in real time when actually executing live trades next week is all that's going to matter.)

 

[expiated]

From Post #453

Naw... it's the 4- and 6-hour baselines that fill this role from the more immediate perspective, and the 13-hour baseline from a longer-range outlook; within the constraints of the 4-day temporal support/resistance levels, 13-hour price range envelope, 2-day price range envelope, and 4-day price range envelope.

 

[expiated]

​

"Final" Candidates...

• The 1-hour price range at 0.16% deviation
• The 13-hour price range at 0.60% deviation
• The 2-day price range at 0.90% (typical) to 1.50% (extreme) deviation
• The 4-day price range at 1.25% (typical) to 2.50% (extreme) deviation
• The 12-day price range at 3% (typical) to 7% (extreme) deviation