...FOLLOWING a PULLBACK in the 40-, 60-, 90-, and 120-minute moving averages.
Such trades might net only ten or so pips worth of profit:
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Duxon's Archive
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Such trades might net only ten or so pips worth of profit:
Regarding the previous post...
Sure, you made money in this case, but on second thought, I think you gave yourself bad advise...regardless. Remember, the eight-hour trend rules, so I say—never trade against it! Just do the following:
You probably won't need to bother with the NPP Daily Analyses thread anymore. Trading can now be as simple as looking at your one-hour charts, see where you want to trade the four-hour price range and in which direction, paste an arrow at the corresponding spot on the lower panel, and then wait for the oscillator (i.e., price) to come to you.
Sure, you made money in this case, but on second thought, I think you gave yourself bad advise...regardless. Remember, the eight-hour trend rules, so I say—never trade against it! Just do the following:
You probably won't need to bother with the NPP Daily Analyses thread anymore. Trading can now be as simple as looking at your one-hour charts, see where you want to trade the four-hour price range and in which direction, paste an arrow at the corresponding spot on the lower panel, and then wait for the oscillator (i.e., price) to come to you.
Will Duxon Interview
Friday / March 19, 2021 / 4:30 PM PST
QUESTION: You say that within a day-trading context, it is the eight-hour trend which rules the day. So then, does this mean a trader should never enter a position that conflicts with the slope of the eight-hour baseline?
ANSWER: Not necessarily—there are exceptions.
QUESTION: Could you please be more specific?
ANSWER: For instance, you could have a situation where the eight-hour baseline is bearish, but price deviates so far to the north of it—let's say to the upper limit of the eight-hour price range, for example—that price action would actually change the trajectory of the eight-hour baseline from bearish to bullish. Given this scenario, it would be logical to rationalize that structure (i.e., typical price range) and reoccurring price patterns might both dictate that candlesticks soon reverse direction and begin descending—that is, as "regression toward the mean" begins to kick into gear. The rate would be inclined to do so in order to hasten its return to the eight-hour baseline, so that price would actually be falling even as the eight-hour baseline continued rising. Consequently, in this situation, it would make sense to trade with the bearish 90-minute and two-hour baselines, even though they would not be aligned with the bullish eight-hour baseline.
QUESTION: Are there any other conditions under which it would be logical or rational to trade against the eight-hour trend?
ANSWER: Yes. Given the above example, suppose that upon returning to the eight-hour baseline, price breaks right through the indicator, and that at this point, it's not only the 90-minute and two-hour baselines that are bearish, but the four-hour baseline is pointed south as well. It would be as if the pair had never truly altered its original overall bearish bias, a fact that is being conveyed by the faster trendlines. But, because the eight-hour baseline is slightly lagging, it needs a bit more time to catch up, at which point, it too will constitute an accurate and valid representation of overall conditions as they really exist. Here again, as long as the more immediate trendlines continued heading south, one could argue that the logical thing to do would be to remain in the short position and wait to see if the eight-hour baseline eventually aligns itself with the faster, more sensitive moving averages, or if mean reversion kicks into gear once more and pulls the faster baselines north to rejoin the eight-hour trend (or if the asset turns neutral and goes into consolidation) signaling that this leg of the journey is over and it's time to exit the sell position and pocket one's gains.
Friday / March 19, 2021 / 4:30 PM PST
QUESTION: You say that within a day-trading context, it is the eight-hour trend which rules the day. So then, does this mean a trader should never enter a position that conflicts with the slope of the eight-hour baseline?
ANSWER: Not necessarily—there are exceptions.
QUESTION: Could you please be more specific?
ANSWER: For instance, you could have a situation where the eight-hour baseline is bearish, but price deviates so far to the north of it—let's say to the upper limit of the eight-hour price range, for example—that price action would actually change the trajectory of the eight-hour baseline from bearish to bullish. Given this scenario, it would be logical to rationalize that structure (i.e., typical price range) and reoccurring price patterns might both dictate that candlesticks soon reverse direction and begin descending—that is, as "regression toward the mean" begins to kick into gear. The rate would be inclined to do so in order to hasten its return to the eight-hour baseline, so that price would actually be falling even as the eight-hour baseline continued rising. Consequently, in this situation, it would make sense to trade with the bearish 90-minute and two-hour baselines, even though they would not be aligned with the bullish eight-hour baseline.
QUESTION: Are there any other conditions under which it would be logical or rational to trade against the eight-hour trend?
ANSWER: Yes. Given the above example, suppose that upon returning to the eight-hour baseline, price breaks right through the indicator, and that at this point, it's not only the 90-minute and two-hour baselines that are bearish, but the four-hour baseline is pointed south as well. It would be as if the pair had never truly altered its original overall bearish bias, a fact that is being conveyed by the faster trendlines. But, because the eight-hour baseline is slightly lagging, it needs a bit more time to catch up, at which point, it too will constitute an accurate and valid representation of overall conditions as they really exist. Here again, as long as the more immediate trendlines continued heading south, one could argue that the logical thing to do would be to remain in the short position and wait to see if the eight-hour baseline eventually aligns itself with the faster, more sensitive moving averages, or if mean reversion kicks into gear once more and pulls the faster baselines north to rejoin the eight-hour trend (or if the asset turns neutral and goes into consolidation) signaling that this leg of the journey is over and it's time to exit the sell position and pocket one's gains.
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Thursday / March 25, 2021 / 10:40 AM PST
Check this out, bro... When employing more of a "swing style" approach, sometimes it can take a minimum of two days before an asset follows through after the eight-hour baseline signals a reversal...
Consequently, at times you're going to have to look to the 24-hour baseline, or even the two-day baseline, for confirmation.
Check this out, bro... When employing more of a "swing style" approach, sometimes it can take a minimum of two days before an asset follows through after the eight-hour baseline signals a reversal...
Consequently, at times you're going to have to look to the 24-hour baseline, or even the two-day baseline, for confirmation.
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Saturday / March 27, 2021
The 14-hour temporal support/resistance levels would be better! Also, given the importance of the eight- and four-hour trends, you should add the 8- and 4-hour temporal support/resistance levels for clarity with respect to potential entry levels. (The 2-hour temporal support/resistance levels are touched by price far too frequently to be of much, if any, practical value.)
Wednesday / March 31, 2021 / 10:20 AM PST
The essence of day trading Numerical Price Prediction...
Execute trades as the 40-minute baseline transitions from being out of sync with the 2-hour baseline to coming into alignment with it. Exit positions when the 40-minute baseline reverses direction so that it once again counters the 2-hour baseline.
The essence of day trading Numerical Price Prediction...
Execute trades as the 40-minute baseline transitions from being out of sync with the 2-hour baseline to coming into alignment with it. Exit positions when the 40-minute baseline reverses direction so that it once again counters the 2-hour baseline.
Thursday / April 1, 2021 / 12:00 Noon
I seem to recall seeing something similar to this take place with respect to the New Zealand pairs not too long ago. Fortunately, I had no open positions then, nor did I today. But no matter. I'm going to remove the Kiwi pairs from the ones I trade, regardless. I never know when this might happen again, and there's no reason to push my luck!
The same pair of charts, the first two from my OANDA account and the other two from Forex.com:
I seem to recall seeing something similar to this take place with respect to the New Zealand pairs not too long ago. Fortunately, I had no open positions then, nor did I today. But no matter. I'm going to remove the Kiwi pairs from the ones I trade, regardless. I never know when this might happen again, and there's no reason to push my luck!
The same pair of charts, the first two from my OANDA account and the other two from Forex.com:
Monday / April 5, 2021 / 7:50 PM PST
In any case, the original reason I returned to this thread was to note that today I began constructing what I suspect might end up being the definitive descriptions of the various trade setups offered by Numerical Price Prediction. Even so, I managed to identify only one trade opportunity on Sunday...
At least it returned 38 pips, which is a very respectable 24-hour trade for me.
Oh yeah...I forgot all about this! Now I have to decide if I'm going to go ahead and ignore the trade setup I see forming with respect to NZDUSD. I probably won't, so if I enter the position, I will need to remember to delete the Kiwi pairs from my profiles so I'm not tempted to trade them again in the future.
In any case, the original reason I returned to this thread was to note that today I began constructing what I suspect might end up being the definitive descriptions of the various trade setups offered by Numerical Price Prediction. Even so, I managed to identify only one trade opportunity on Sunday...
At least it returned 38 pips, which is a very respectable 24-hour trade for me.