Duxon's Archive
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Friday / February 19, 2021 / 4:25 p.m. PST
This simple strategy echoes the fanning moving averages taught by Nick McDonald of Trade with Precision, and seems like it ought to be a foolproof plan. It merely requires me to:
ANOTHER MILESTONE?
This simple strategy echoes the fanning moving averages taught by Nick McDonald of Trade with Precision, and seems like it ought to be a foolproof plan. It merely requires me to:
- Wait until the eight-, four-, and two-hour baselines are properly aligned in sequential order.
- Once they are, enter positions as soon as the instantaneous ("zero lag"), 13-minute, 40-minute, and 2-hour baselines are also aligned in sequential order.
- Exit when the instantaneous, 13-minute, 40-minute, and 2-hour baselines go "out of wack."
- If the eight-, four-, and two-hour baselines remain in "proper" alignment, reenter positions every time the instantaneous, 13-minute, 40-minute, and 2-hour baselines go back into alignment, and exit them every time these four baseline go back out of wack.
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(In Post #403, by "previous post" I meant Post #402... along with Posts #401 and #400.)
A FOOLPROOF PLAN FOR BINARY OPTIONS?
I've done stuff like taken a $10,000 Nadex demo account up to as much as $15,000 in six months, and even in as little as one week. But, I've yet to devise a methodology that can work the same magic starting with a $100 opening balance—a situation in which there is virtually no room for error.
However, I think the following looks promising. It is another very simple strategy:
UPDATE #2: After conferring with another chart, I've determined that I should probably be using the six- and eight-hour baselines in place of (or along with) the two- and three-day baselines.
A FOOLPROOF PLAN FOR BINARY OPTIONS?
I've done stuff like taken a $10,000 Nadex demo account up to as much as $15,000 in six months, and even in as little as one week. But, I've yet to devise a methodology that can work the same magic starting with a $100 opening balance—a situation in which there is virtually no room for error.
However, I think the following looks promising. It is another very simple strategy:
- If the two-day and three-day baselines are bullish, wait for price to drop down to the 24-hour temporal support level (at which point, you will probably want to switch to trading on a five- or one-minute chart).
- Purchase an in-the-money (or perhaps even an out-of-the-money) binary option contract. (But is it best to select expiry at one or two hours, or close to 24 hours, or somewhere in between?)
- If the two-day and three-day baselines are bearish, wait for price to climb up to the 24-hour temporal resistance level, and reverse the actions described above.
UPDATE #2: After conferring with another chart, I've determined that I should probably be using the six- and eight-hour baselines in place of (or along with) the two- and three-day baselines.
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Monday / February 22, 2021 / 10:15 AM PST
I've determined that the two- and three-day baselines evidence a tad bit too much lag, and that the 1½-day baseline better tracks actionable price action, with its corresponding simple moving average envelopes fitting quite nicely with price action as well...
Wednesday / February 24, 2021 / 8:00 AM PST
SWING STYLE PROTOCOL:
The steps listed below probably work just fine, but in looking to implement Numerical Price Prediction with its biggest bang for the buck—which is to say, for the maximum amount of return with the minimum amount of effort—during the last 24 hours I started using a four-hour chart configuration in concert with a routine that can probably be followed by any rank beginner...
...It basically comes down to this...
If the eight-, twelve- and twenty-hour baselines are all sloping in the same direction; enter positions during (or following) pullbacks behind the instantaneous (zero-lag) moving average. You're essentially entering during four-hour pullbacks in the eight-hour trend. However, to pinpoint the best entry levels, it's probably recommendable to drop down to a five-minute chart and wait for the forty-minute, one-hour, and two-hour baselines to reverse direction coming off support or resistance.
SWING STYLE PROTOCOL:
The steps listed below probably work just fine, but in looking to implement Numerical Price Prediction with its biggest bang for the buck—which is to say, for the maximum amount of return with the minimum amount of effort—during the last 24 hours I started using a four-hour chart configuration in concert with a routine that can probably be followed by any rank beginner...
...It basically comes down to this...
If the eight-, twelve- and twenty-hour baselines are all sloping in the same direction; enter positions during (or following) pullbacks behind the instantaneous (zero-lag) moving average. You're essentially entering during four-hour pullbacks in the eight-hour trend. However, to pinpoint the best entry levels, it's probably recommendable to drop down to a five-minute chart and wait for the forty-minute, one-hour, and two-hour baselines to reverse direction coming off support or resistance.
Wednesday / February 24, 2021 / 5:20 PM PST
For quite some time it was my desire to come up with a style of trading with a longer-term outlook than scalping, but without damaging my 85%+ success rate. I think that might be what I’m looking at as of this year, even though I gave up on that effort back in 2018. (It kind of just happened on its own.)
For quite some time it was my desire to come up with a style of trading with a longer-term outlook than scalping, but without damaging my 85%+ success rate. I think that might be what I’m looking at as of this year, even though I gave up on that effort back in 2018. (It kind of just happened on its own.)
Thursday / February 25, 2021 / 9:05 AM PST
From my perspective, there has been a significant shift in the angle from which Numerical Price Prediction comes at the task of "rightly discerning the signs of the times."
The system still collects, analyzes and interprets precise, up-of-date, quantitative information—in multiple time frames and at specific times and locations—to use in making accurate predictions as to what price is likely to do in the not too distant future.
But whereas the framework underlying the approach was previously viewed as consisting of waves, cycles and envelopes; its methodology is now conceptualized as relying primarily on a set of multi-temporal baselines and support/resistance levels. The system remains the same, but its emphasis/focus has changed somewhat drastically.
From my perspective, there has been a significant shift in the angle from which Numerical Price Prediction comes at the task of "rightly discerning the signs of the times."
The system still collects, analyzes and interprets precise, up-of-date, quantitative information—in multiple time frames and at specific times and locations—to use in making accurate predictions as to what price is likely to do in the not too distant future.
But whereas the framework underlying the approach was previously viewed as consisting of waves, cycles and envelopes; its methodology is now conceptualized as relying primarily on a set of multi-temporal baselines and support/resistance levels. The system remains the same, but its emphasis/focus has changed somewhat drastically.
Sunday, February 28, 2021
Revised opinions concerning previous observations:
What I wrote above notwithstanding, I don’t think it's fair to characterize four-hour measures as "lagging." From where I now stand, that kind of thinking stems from not having a comprehensive view of overall market structure, and in fact, the four-hour baseline is a critical component in terms of discerning exactly where price is headed at the intraday level.
However, it does seem that Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) has abandoned the use of four-hour price range envelopes. As the system is now being implemented, I can't even imagine where such envelopes would fit in. It turned out that this measure is not a reliable representation of the full extent to which price can vary. Indeed, it is the eight-hour price range that seems to fill this role with the greatest amount of validity under normal circumstances, at least from a "big picture" perspective. I therefore suspect the four-hour range has been replaced by the temporal support/resistance levels that began to take on added responsibility in September of 2020.
In any event, now that the application of NPP has be fully fleshed out—from scalping all the way up to position trading—it is the eight-hour baseline that has emerged as the foundation on which the rest of the system is built—with the forty-minute baseline taking on special significance at the intraday (day trading) level, and the twelve-day and thirty-six-day trends serving as key measures when moving up to position trading.
Revised opinions concerning previous observations:
What I wrote above notwithstanding, I don’t think it's fair to characterize four-hour measures as "lagging." From where I now stand, that kind of thinking stems from not having a comprehensive view of overall market structure, and in fact, the four-hour baseline is a critical component in terms of discerning exactly where price is headed at the intraday level.
However, it does seem that Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) has abandoned the use of four-hour price range envelopes. As the system is now being implemented, I can't even imagine where such envelopes would fit in. It turned out that this measure is not a reliable representation of the full extent to which price can vary. Indeed, it is the eight-hour price range that seems to fill this role with the greatest amount of validity under normal circumstances, at least from a "big picture" perspective. I therefore suspect the four-hour range has been replaced by the temporal support/resistance levels that began to take on added responsibility in September of 2020.
In any event, now that the application of NPP has be fully fleshed out—from scalping all the way up to position trading—it is the eight-hour baseline that has emerged as the foundation on which the rest of the system is built—with the forty-minute baseline taking on special significance at the intraday (day trading) level, and the twelve-day and thirty-six-day trends serving as key measures when moving up to position trading.
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So, I guess at this point trading pretty much becomes a routine endeavor. I have no comments to make this morning. Everything is unfolding as the computer models forecast. Glory to Yahweh, I pray that a year from now my main focus will be on where to direct excess funds to do the greatest good.