Duxon's Archive

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Saturday, January 30, 2021

I am identifying this as my "bread and butter" moving average.

Used in conjunction with a key baseline along with a unique, newly developed way of incorporating temporal support and resistance (I just checked, and I cannot find the approach described, explained, or even briefly mentioned anywhere online) it clarifies when to enter and exit positions, and in which direction to trade.

A common criticism often thrown my way is that I am overfitting or curve fitting my strategy, resulting in a false confidence in its robustness. But, I disagree.

If I were indeed curve fitting, then future data points would fail to follow the past, resulting in poor predictive value. But, since future data points follow just as well as past data points, my approach should not be characterized as such.

I think what these critics are trying to communicate is that my measures are so tailored for the particular instruments I trade that they will not be able to adapt to a change in markets; or for a particular time frame, that they will not be able to adapt to another. They see such inflexibility as a bad thing. But, even if this is a reality, and I’m not saying that it is, so what?

I regard the adapting of a strategy to closely fit a given asset class to be a strength—not a weakness. So, if this methodology works next week, I will be using it going forward in that it seems to eliminate any remaining flaws in the final three iterations of NPP I’ve implemented so far this year.

 

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Wednesday / February 3, 2021 / 1:50 a.m. PST

Today I established a simple trading routine that didn’t involve my doing any scalping at all. This was accomplished by combining my Secret Sauce-Temporal-Structure-based approach to Numerical Price Prediction with 24-hour-market-cycle-based entries. This leads to a relatively laid back style of trading the requires very little of my attention.

I was thrilled with the results. But even so, I missed a 100% success rate by just a couple of pips, because even AUDUSD ended up turning in my favor just after the pair stopped me out...

So, does this mean I should have used a wider stop loss? No, because that would have meant exposing myself to the possibility of suffering a greater loss than what I am willing to accept. Therefore, if I had it all to do over again, I would do everything exactly the same.

 

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Wednesday / February 10, 2021

Today I established a simple trading routine that didn’t involve my doing any scalping at all. This was accomplished by combining my Secret Sauce-Temporal-Structure-based approach to Numerical Price Prediction with 24-hour-market-cycle-based entries. This leads to a relatively laid back style of trading the requires very little of my attention.

Though the above-mentioned approach requires little of my attention, it does not optimize efficiency. For this reason, I plan to lay aside the structure-based 24-hour market cycle aspect of what I was doing. But I still found the exercise valuable in that it clarified exactly how I ought to be handling entries and exits.

While going through this process, I delayed increasing the size of my trades (as I had planned to do). But, if I verify the new modified approach during the rest of this week, I intend to double the 0.01-sized lots I've been trading to 0.02 next week, and continue along these lines to hopefully arrive at trading a full 1 Lot per transaction as soon as possible. Then after this Covid-19 mess stabilizes, perhaps relocate outside the U.S. so I can take advantage of trading NPP via outfits such as Binary.com...

 

[expiated]

Though the above-mentioned approach requires little of my attention, it does not optimize efficiency. For this reason, I plan to lay aside the structure-based 24-hour market cycle aspect of what I was doing. But, I still found the exercise valuable in that it clarified exactly how I ought to be handling entries and exits. While going through this process, I delayed increasing the size of my trades (as I had planned to do). But, if I verify the new modified approach during the rest of this week, I intend to double the 0.01-sized lots I've been trading to 0.02 next week, and continue along these lines to hopefully arrive at trading a full 1 Lot per transaction as soon as possible. Then after this Covid-19 mess stabilizes, perhaps relocate outside the U.S. so I can take advantage of trading NPP via outfits such as Binary.com...

ANOTHER MILESTONE ?

I want to record some coded language here as well as the explicit text I've written in my personal notes in that I think this information might be significant enough that I should do everything in my power to ensure it stands apart from the myriad of words I've recorded previously.

This information is in relation to the template I've dubbed the "5-Minute from 1-Hour DAY RANGE PULLBACK." The foundation of this configuration is the two-hour baseline. Second in importance are the four- and ten-hour temporal support and resistance levels. These measures are followed by the 23-minute baseline with the five-hour price range envelope rounding out the key indicators.

 

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Friday, February 12, 2021

I want to record some coded language here as well as the explicit text I've written in my personal notes in that I think this information might be significant enough that I should do everything in my power to ensure it stands apart from the myriad of words I've recorded previously.

So then, the 40-minute baseline, which you previously designated as being a key measure, you are now kicking to the curb..

It is too prone/susceptible to price fluctuations to give me a valid and reliable read on where rates are ultimately headed, hence my reliance on the two-hour baseline instead; and it is too slow to convey intraday reversals in a timely manner, hence the substitution of the 23-minute baseline.

 

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Saturday, February 13, 2021
INTRODUCING A CONCEPT I'M CALLING "PRESSURE"

Today I am injecting a new concept into Numerical Price Prediction for the purpose of clarifying expectations. The idea, which I’m labeling as "pressure," is designed to differentiate between the influence brought to bear by structure associated with the various time frames.

For example, if a given exchange rate is at the very top of the three-day price range, there will be a significant amount of "bearish pressure" exerted on price to fall. Yet, if the rate is at the same time below an upward sloping five-hour baseline, in this context, there will be a tremendous amount of "bullish pressure" exerted on price to continue rising. To get a full picture of what is going on, the impact/influence of both of these structures and how they are likely to interact with one another must be taken into consideration.

Accordingly, the above scenario would be viewed quite differently than would one in which a given exchange rate is at the very bottom of the three-day price range, AND is at the same time crossing above the five-hour baseline after having just bounced off the very bottom of the five-hour price range. This would be a virtually ideal buying situation given that it would almost be as if the rate had nowhere to go but up! Under these circumstances, the probability of realizing a profit by buying the asset would be calculated as MUCH greater than it would in the first situation. Moreover, the AMOUNT of potential profit that might be available would be much greater as well.

 

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It seems like
Shadow Trader
refers to consolidation as "balance area," and to looking at individual market sectors—such as technology, real estate, materials, energy, health care, communications, consumer discretionary, financial, industrial, etc.—as "getting granular."

 

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Yet, if the rate is at the same time below an upward sloping five-hour baseline, in this context, there will be a tremendous amount of "bullish pressure" exerted on price to continue rising.

In Post #396 I was confusing a five-period instantaneous moving average on a four-hour chart with the five-hour baseline. Consequently, instead of referring to "five-hour," I should have been referring to "20-hour" (5 × 4 = 20).

 

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Thursday / February 18, 2021 / 7:35 PM PST

Today's results were stellar for someone like me, but I had to wait two or three days for some of these trades to pan out. So, I decided to evaluate whether there might not be some way I could integrate all my strategies to shorten the wait time on collecting profits, yet still avoid scalping.

At this time, it looks to me like the solution may be to enter positions as rates oscillate above and below the four-hour baseline. However, this answer seems almost too simple to be true, so I'm curious to see if it will actually work...