So, based on my performance with the demo account, I could theoretically make more than a thousand dollars a week trading the Baseline Bonanza version of NPP via Nadex starting now, which is why I'm about to head off to FedEx to try to print the required documents so I can fill them out and send them in to the exchange today or tomorrow.
Duxon's Archive
- Thread starter expiated
- Start date
The paperwork is now all filled out, so I just need to mail it off tomorrow.
Thursday / October 15, 2020
I believe there might be an exception to the above, however. If price wanders to the edges of both the intraday and day-to-day price ranges, it seems to me that there is tremendous potential for monstrous gains (without all the intervening potentially stop-triggering fluctuations that plague the four-hour approach) when it turns back toward more typical levels—a theory I'm hoping to test with the Aussie pairs.
Thursday / October 15, 2020 / 9:45 AM PST
However, an evaluation of 15-minute charts suggests that one might be able to get away with entering just after a reversal in the 70-minute baseline, so that's what I'm going to attempt, and have therefore bought both AUDJPY and AUDUSD, anticipating that I will need to hold on to them for at least a day or two, if not longer. However, the day-to-day bias/sentiment has turned bearish over the last two days, so I'm not so sure about that.
From the perspective of a one-hour chart, it appears relatively safe to enter such positions in situations like the one described above once the two-hour, four-hour, and perhaps even the nine-hour baselines have made the turn, though it could be argued that waiting on the nine-hour moving average verges on exercising an excessive/ridiculous amount of caution.
However, an evaluation of 15-minute charts suggests that one might be able to get away with entering just after a reversal in the 70-minute baseline, so that's what I'm going to attempt, and have therefore bought both AUDJPY and AUDUSD, anticipating that I will need to hold on to them for at least a day or two, if not longer. However, the day-to-day bias/sentiment has turned bearish over the last two days, so I'm not so sure about that.
Last edited:
Ahhh! Now I more clearly understand how market cycles can be conceptualized as fractals!
All of the profit below the horizontal red line came from pocketing gains from the swing-style approach to the Baseline Bonanza version of NPP while they were available. (The market is now in its dormant phase following the close of the New York session.) The single loss delivered by GBPUSD was experienced before the idea of this new tactic/technique occurred to me.
The swing-style approach to the Baseline Bonanza version of NPP is a great tactic for entering positions (probably) as illustrated by the image uploaded to Post #306. However, once again, remaining in positions for a day or more simply doesn't make sense to me, logically speaking, when I see how I can pocket gains on surges and then completely avoid drawndowns before they ever manifest.
I probably feel the same way about 24-hour binary option contracts. Yes, the reward-to-risk ratio is better. But, I think I would rather get in and out of a trade in an hour or less, with much less time available for things to go wrong, and then do my best to manage the ridiculous downside as well as I can.
Because it would feel stupid to me not to lock in gains where appropriate, though the above strategy avoids intervening potentially stop-triggering fluctuations, it merely replaces them with intervening guaranteed drawdown fluctuations. Consequently, I find it useful only in terms of designating initial high-probability entry levels and nothing more.
Also, given that AUDUSD has spent much of the last 12 hours below the 0.7080 strike price, I am abandoning the Nadex position at this opportunity, given that I would rather lose -$2.75 now (which I have already more than made up for by means of subsequent trades) than risk losing the -$64.75 at expiry.
Had I done the above in my Forex.com demo account, I could have enjoyed these gains from AUDJPY, AUDUSD, and NZDJPY twelve hours ago instead of waiting until just now...
These thoughts from Thursday (Post #304) are extremely important! Note that attention to the nine-hour baseline is NOT tantamount to exercising a ridiculously excessive amount of caution, and in fact, there is a good chance that the nine-hour baseline is going to play a key role going forward.
Also, your comment about not being sure about holding on to the Aussie pairs for at least a day or two due to the day-to-day bias/sentiment having turned bearish over the last two days was spot on! Moreover, it is closely related to the role likely to be played by the nine-hour baseline.
This constitutes a new way of evaluating Numerical Price Prediction and is being carried out in an attempt to figure out how to purchase Nadex out-of-the-money binary option contracts with a nearly 100% success rate.
Since their nine-hour baselines appear to be on the verge of initiating upward turns, I would not be surprised to see AUDJPY head north from somewhere in the neighborhood of 74.46 and AUDUSD do the same somewhere around 0.7065.
Last edited: