Duxon's Archive

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Thursday / September 24, 2020 / 5:45 AM PST

MILESTONE

This is the ideal that you have been shooting for. Average returns above 20ȼ using a trade size of 0.01 lots, with at least two or three trades ranging from 75ȼ to $3.00 or more. A daily success rate of from 85% to 100%, and a daily return in excess of 5%.

 

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From Post #278

I'm not sure from where you got this. But with the configuration you're now employing, I would suggest using designated degrees of day range instead (dependent on how sharply a given asset is trending, and based on further analysis).

 

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NOTE:

In Post #277 you typed "in place of the 15- and 30-minute baselines, your focus has settled on the 15-minute baseline confirmation moving average, which is sort of an intermediate measurement between the two."

However, you just deleted all but one of your 5-, 15- and 30-minute chart configurations—the ones labeled "Heiken Ashi Range." And when it comes to these charts, you are sort of drifting back toward more of a focus on the 30-minute baseline.

I think this is probably because you are beginning to try to incorporate use of the four-hour price range and the 24-hour baseline to a much greater extent in order to realize a lot more 75ȼ to $3.00+ gains per position trading 0.01-sized Lots. And also because you are looking to begin using one-hour charts where the various day range levels have been clearly defined to signal regions where there is increasing statistical probability that a reversal might occur, and where the strength of the day-to-day and four-hour trends (the slopes of their corresponding baselines) are gauged/rated numerically and graphically.

Also, I'm not sure what this post was all about...

But you are NOT (or dropped) using a half-day price range. Yes, you are using the four-hour price range, along with the four-hour directional flow and the typical to maximum day range levels.

 

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Saturday / September 26, 2020
Pasted from the previous post...

You just reconfigured a one-minute chart to go along with your single 5-, 15- and 30-minute configurations, one precisely calibrated to take full advantage of all the recently calibrated parameters associated with the various baselines and their related price ranges. So it should be interesting to see how easy or difficult it will be to trade successfully using this one-minute setup next week, and what kind of daily performance results it yields.

 

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TENTATIVE THOUGHTS...

Forget about trading one-minute or five-minute trends. You are trading 15-, 30- and or 60-minute trends. The only thing that one-minute and five-minute price direction does is tell you when and where to enter or exit your positions, as dictated by the 5-, 15- and 60-minute price ranges. (It would appear that you have found it unnecessary to plot a 30-minute price range envelope on your charts). So in one sense, you are actually trading levels—not trends. This is for intraday trading, however.

If interested in approaching the market from more of a swing-style of trading, you will ideally be looking to enter positions as rates are coming out of pullbacks in the four-hour trend on your one-hour charts. You might also enter, on rare occasions, near an upper or lower band of the four-hour and/or daily price range. However, under routine conditions, these levels are more appropriately used to help determine when to exit longer-term trades with profit.

 

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It would appear that you have found it unnecessary to plot a 30-minute price range envelope on your charts.

I'm not sure what was going on here. The 30-minute price range envelope is very much a key component of my charts, along with the two-hour and four-hour ranges. Basically, I'm looking for a convergence of these strategic levels, with the five- and one-minute price action dictating precisely when and where to execute trades.

 

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I'm not sure what was going on here. The 30-minute price range envelope is very much a key component of my charts, along with the two-hour and four-hour ranges. Basically, I'm looking for a convergence of these strategic levels, with the five- and one-minute price action dictating precisely when and where to execute trades.

My previous post reinforces the above quote. However, I might make a slight adjustment in that trading via the lowest time frames might recommend using the two-hour frame of reference as the system's backbone instead of four-hours.

 

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Friday / October 2, 2020 / 7:15 AM PST

MILESTONE

My previous post reinforces the above quote. However, I might make a slight adjustment in that trading via the lowest time frames might recommend using the two-hour frame of reference as the system's backbone instead of four-hours.

Yes, very nice.

As of yesterday morning, I ended all attempts at broadening the time frames within which I might operate, and now that there is no longer any question whatsoever about the parameters within which my system works best, I'll be focusing almost exclusively on how price behaves in the context on one to 120 minutes and on detailing the exact protocol I'm using to trade the current set of graphics, which are extremely unlikely to undergo any additional fundamental changes.

 

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Monday / October 5, 2020

Dollardogs clicked on this post, which brought it back to my attention.

I'm noting for myself that here it is, more than two years later, and I have now fleshed out "the more nuanced aspects of my forecast model." Not only is my approach still based almost entirely on moving averages and (adaptive) moving average envelopes (i.e., price ranges), but I have gone on to assign temporal values to specific simple moving averages which I feel blesses me with crystal clarity at all times as to what is going on with price movement.

The system relies primarily on three tactics: (1) regression to the mean against the trend; (2) mean reversion with the trend; and (3) baseline reversals. So now, I will simply trade the system, day by day, day in and day out, until I have slowly built up my account to a point where it is generating more revenue than even I had imagined, God willing.