Duxon's Archive

[expiated]

I would like to try to duplicate this, and perhaps trades that are even more profitable, again and again, if possible. The chart aids in picking optimum entry levels for positions with a longer-term outlook (closer to a swing type of trading style than that of an intraday or scalping kind of trade).

Right now, it looks to me like this is the absolute best set of circumstances for entering a position…

It’s when you have the day-to-day baseline (dark green) and four-hour baseline (dirty red) both sloping in the same direction, but you have the slope of the instantaneous moving average oscillator and the relative position of the thirty-minute price range oscillator both headed in the opposite direction AND the relative position oscillator has pulled back at a minimum to the inner floor or ceiling of the price anomaly channel within the last two or three candlesticks (see the blue circles).

Entering at the red circle would have resulted in a losing trade, which is why it is important to switch to a lower timeframe chart before doing so to make sure price action confirms that the asset is coming out of the pullback before entering the position.

 

[expiated]

Three useful questions to ask and answer with respect to the 30-minute focus:

1. In which direction is the 90-minute price range envelope sloping?
2. In which direction is the 30-minute price range envelope sloping?
3. Is the 30-minute price range envelope located in the upper half, lower half, or middle of the 90-minute price range envelope?

 

[expiated]

Five useful questions to ask and answer with respect to the 30-minute focus:

1. In which direction is the 90-minute price range envelope sloping?
2. In which direction is the 30-minute price range envelope sloping?
3. Is the 30-minute price range envelope located in the upper half, lower half, or middle of the 90-minute price range envelope?
4. What are the slopes of the 15- and 60-minute baselines...
5. ...and where are they located in relation to one another?

On a lower timeframe (five-minute) chart, you're going to want to do the same sort of thing. And eventually, you will probably want to combine the two configurations on the same (lower-timeframe) chart. (Actually, they are already combined on the "Clear Picture" setup.) So then, ask and answer...

1. In which direction is the 15-minute price range envelope sloping?
2. In which direction is the 30-minute price range envelope sloping?
3. Is the 15-minute price range envelope located in the upper half, lower half, or middle of the 30-minute price range envelope?
4. What are the slopes of the 5- and 15-minute baselines...
5. ...and where are they located in relation to each other?

NOTE: When you're trading using this kind of tactic a lot of times it's going to take up to three hours for situations (market structure) to setup properly.

 

[expiated]

Evaluate the profitability of entering positions when there is a pullback withing the 30-minute price range envelope when both the 30-minute and 90-minute price range envelopes are sloping in the same direction and the 30-minute price range envelope is positioned in the corresponding half of the 90-minute price range envelope.

 

[expiated]

Friday / September 4, 2020 / 9:15 AM PST

NOTE: When you're trading using this kind of tactic a lot of times it's going to take up to three hours for situations (market structure) to set up properly.

When all is said and done, it appears that for me everything comes back around to trading one-minute charts. Given the nature of foreign currency pair price action, from my perspective, this is simply what makes the most sense.

The last set of instructions I have in mind for doing so based on all the different tactics employed over the last week or two is relatively obvious, pretty straightforward and very specific to the final one-minute chart configuration I'm using, so writing the directions here would not really serve any purpose since I can sketch them out directly to the notes in my laptop without having to put in any additional thought or analysis.

 

[expiated]

Wednesday / September 9, 2020 / 10:30 AM PST

"When all is said and done, it appears that for me everything comes back around to trading one-minute charts. Given the nature of foreign currency pair price action, from my perspective, this is simply what makes the most sense."

Milestone:

My last two significant losses (EURJPY and AUDUSD) helped me to establish the correct trigger signal for executing swing trades.

So, the above quote notwithstanding, going forward I should be able to combine my so-called mastery of one minute charts with a newfound better understanding of what goes on with price action on a grander scale to unite the two perspectives into a single system where I shoot for larger returns when appropriate, and compile smaller gains in between...

 

[expiated]

Numerical Price Prediction as I now use it relies heavily on an indicator that seems to me to be very much like Lee Leibfarth's Adaptive Price Zone (APZ) technical indicator, first described in the journal: Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities (September 2006 issue: "Identify the Turning Point: Trading With an Adaptive Price Zone").

However, I came up with my indicators, which I call adaptive price range envelopes, sometime after 2015. (I learned of the APZ in March of last year [if I remember correctly] but did not find it to be of much value to me personally.)

The following are the (three) differences in how I use adaptive price range envelopes, and Investopedia's explanation of how to use the APZ...

1. To maximize effective, I find it necessary to use a minimum of two envelopes with differing parameters as opposed to just the one APZ.
2. The APZ is regarded as well suited for choppy markets—but adaptive price range envelopes can be just as useful employed during trending markets simply by applying them a little bit differently.
   
3. Rather than rely on the ADX (created by Welles Wilder) to help determine where a trend is losing strength, and therefore, confirm where price reversals are likely to occur as indicated by the APZ; when it comes to adaptive price range envelopes, this role is filled by key, painstakingly selected simple and/or proprietary moving averages and moving average envelopes.

 

[expiated]

Friday / September 11, 2020

From Post #263...

UPDATE: This looks like a relatively frequent setup you might be able to take advantage of without having to pay extremely close attention to the market. When the orange 60-minute baseline is evidencing a definite slope in a particular direction, enter positions following pullbacks as the candlesticks are reversing direction from behind the yellow 30-minute baseline...

(By the way, did you notice that the 90-minute baseline is no longer on your charts? Are you going to put it back? Also, verify whether a black histogram that is painting beyond the white dotted line is a reliable indication of significant momentum suggesting that price is going to keep running in that direction.)

 

[expiated]

Unlike any other system with which I’m familiar, the way I incorporate moving averages has been to identify a specific baseline to track the direction of price from the perspective of each temporal context of interest to me (i.e., one-minute, five-minute, 15-minute, 30-minute, 60-minute, 90-minute, 2-hour and 4-hour time frames). In other words, I do not use the conventional 10-, 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-period MAs. This means that if I were to use SMA (10) to track the hourly trend on a 60-minute chart, I would use SMA (120) to do the same thing on a five-minute chart, and rely on faster moving averages within that same context to pinpoint precise entry and exit levels from a one-hour perspective, with the result being essentially no lag time/latency. Copyright © 2020 Will Duxon

 

[Overnight]

Friday / September 11, 2020

From Post #263...

View attachment 239195

UPDATE: This looks like a relatively frequent setup you might be able to take advantage of without having to pay extremely close attention to the market. When the orange 60-minute baseline is evidencing a definite slope in a particular direction, enter positions following pullbacks as the candlesticks are reversing direction from behind the yellow 30-minute baseline...

View attachment 239196
(By the way, did you notice that the 90-minute baseline is no longer on your charts? Are you going to put it back? Also, verify whether a black histogram that is painting beyond the white dotted line is a reliable indication of significant momentum suggesting that price is going to keep running in that direction.)

Nobody EVER, IN THE HISTORY OF TRADING, shows a hindsight chart with a loss. Why is that?