Duxon's Archive

Thursday / July 2, 2020 / 4:15 PM PST
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It is my hope that the above two errors will be among the last few significant mistakes I make in my trading “career” going forward. I am no longer seeking any additional insights at all, and am beginning to feel very settled into when I want to trade, and how I want to go about doing it.
 
expiated said:
Rentals in America...

According to Housingwire dot com, South Dakota had the lowest median rent in 2018 at $525 per month, followed by New Mexico at $576, Arkansas at $582, and Oklahoma at $613.
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Wayyyyy better than rent prices out here in Hawaii... $1,300 gets you a very small studio (although its right next to a gorgeous beach)... I guess its all about location.
 
Friday / July 3, 2020
expiated said:
I am no longer seeking any additional insights at all, and am beginning to feel very settled into when I want to trade, and how I want to go about doing it.
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And yet, in plotting my "settled" configuration on four-hour charts, I see a very simple way of designating "trade zones."
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In extrapolating this setup to my five-minute charts, it should fit very nicely into my newly adopted "relaxed" trading style in which I enter positions only at extraordinarily strategic locations where the payoff is virtually guaranteed and likely to be significantly above average.
 
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Saturday / July 4, 2020
expiated said:
In extrapolating this setup to my five-minute charts, it should fit very nicely into my newly adopted "relaxed" trading style in which I enter positions only at extraordinarily strategic locations where the payoff is virtually guaranteed and likely to be significantly above average.
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Interpreting the ("Price Anomaly Channel") lower panel indicators is very simple. When the black oscillator climbs above the “Chop Zone” (above the horizontal green line), the numbers qualify the market as trending with significant bullish momentum, signaling prime conditions for entering long positions whenever the goldish-brown oscillator pulls back to the red and/or blue-gray lower levels.

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Conversely, when the black oscillator crawls below the “Chop Zone” (below the horizontal red line), the numbers qualify the market as trending with significant bearish momentum, signaling prime conditions for entering short positions whenever the goldish-brown oscillator retreats (pulls up) to the green and/or upper blue-gray levels.

(Take profit when the goldish-brown oscillator peaks after returning to the opposite side of the Price Anomaly Channel.)
 
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studentofthemarkets said:
Do you mind sharing what you mean by "price ranges?" Is that like a measured move or the range of the low to high of a cycle? Thanks!!
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I trade using a system I call Numerical Price Prediction (NPP), which is based on the biblical principle of testing everything and holding fast only to that which can be verified as true (among others), from which there stem three beliefs that dictate when and where to enter positions.
  1. The first is that the best predictors of price action are moving averages and (adaptive) moving average envelopes.
  2. The second is that these measures should be interpreted as graphic representations of statistical variance (i.e., price deviation/range) and rate of change (i.e., slope/trend).
  3. The third is that by analyzing data generated from these measures within multiple time frames a trader can pinpoint optimal levels for entering and executing trades.
As you can see from the images below (sampled from various entries posted over the last couple of years) this is ultimately a waves/envelopes/cycles approach to trading Forex which incorporates Edgar Peters’ fractal market hypothesis (which views financial markets as fractal in the sense that they follow a cyclical and replicable pattern) along with cycle theory (which holds that cyclical forces, both long and short, drive price movements, and can be used to anticipate turning points).

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I see my view of the markets as being not unlike that of J.M. Hurst and Brian J. Millard. Elsewhere, I have described my system as "conceptualizing price action as a spectrum of values forming cyclical waves of given amplitude, that cut swaths of area bounded by dynamic adaptive price range channels with directional tendency, to inform a decision-making process based entirely on mathematical odds and statistical probability, which has an uncanny ability to unveil the key levels where market makers reverse direction to enter/come out of positions with liquidity."

According to Millard, Hurst’s work was based on five main concepts:
  1. Maximum profits are obtained from shorter trades
  2. Some 23% of price motion is based on cyclic movements in nature
  3. These cycles are additive
  4. The cycles can be seen clearly if envelopes are constructed around the price movement
  5. The ideal buying point is when several such cyclic components are reaching their low points
It is the amplitude, or width, of the above-mentioned cycles (waves) that I think of as price ranges.
 
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