Duxon's Archive
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Friday / March 13, 2020 / 8:30 PM PST
Yesterday (I believe) my charts morphed into a configuration that, for the time being at least, I am simply referring to as my "Path" setup...
The way I began using it as this week's sessions drew to a close led to nonstop trading, which is good for me, since I get bored waiting around for the right structure, and making dozens of trades per hour should add up to what amounts to a reasonable daily income for me personally, even though only using a mere $200 trading account. The configuration makes it possible to string together relatively decent chains of successive trades...
Nonetheless, I did not always use the configuration as competently as I would have liked. But thankfully, it only took a little bit of analysis after the markets closed to figure out why (if I'm not mistaken). Making the necessary adjustments will once again require waiting for the right structure to enter positions, but I think the arrangements I will be looking for occur with more-or-less regular frequency. If this is true, then at least the waiting will involve shorter intervals (and the typical trade should hopefully average somewhere between $1 to $4 with nothing lower than this).
Yesterday (I believe) my charts morphed into a configuration that, for the time being at least, I am simply referring to as my "Path" setup...
The way I began using it as this week's sessions drew to a close led to nonstop trading, which is good for me, since I get bored waiting around for the right structure, and making dozens of trades per hour should add up to what amounts to a reasonable daily income for me personally, even though only using a mere $200 trading account. The configuration makes it possible to string together relatively decent chains of successive trades...
Nonetheless, I did not always use the configuration as competently as I would have liked. But thankfully, it only took a little bit of analysis after the markets closed to figure out why (if I'm not mistaken). Making the necessary adjustments will once again require waiting for the right structure to enter positions, but I think the arrangements I will be looking for occur with more-or-less regular frequency. If this is true, then at least the waiting will involve shorter intervals (and the typical trade should hopefully average somewhere between $1 to $4 with nothing lower than this).
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Saturday / March 14, 2020
I just merged the "Path" configuration, the best of my lower-time-frame setups, with the best of my higher-time-frame setups to get a conglomeration I plan to begin using at the start of next week, which I'm hoping will lead to my best results ever, God willing...
I just merged the "Path" configuration, the best of my lower-time-frame setups, with the best of my higher-time-frame setups to get a conglomeration I plan to begin using at the start of next week, which I'm hoping will lead to my best results ever, God willing...
I continue to be amazed by observations on how trading systems will work for a while and then stop. It's probably because I'm such a simple-minded guy that I don't get it. For example, J.M. Hurst's cyclic theory holds that there are an infinite number of harmonically related cycles making it impossible to forecast price movement with 100% accuracy. But why even try? Why not simply buy and hold so long as price is rising, and then short whenever price is falling. Below is an image of a Dow Jones 100-year historical chart.
Exactly where on this chart does up stop being up and down stop being down? I keep hearing people say don't sell now, and I agree, because it's too late now. One might as well ride it out at this point. The time to sell was way back here...
It just seems to me that you can never go wrong it you buy when the numbers keep climbing higher and sell when they keep falling lower, so long as you do it in a timely fashion.
Exactly where on this chart does up stop being up and down stop being down? I keep hearing people say don't sell now, and I agree, because it's too late now. One might as well ride it out at this point. The time to sell was way back here...
It just seems to me that you can never go wrong it you buy when the numbers keep climbing higher and sell when they keep falling lower, so long as you do it in a timely fashion.
Sunday / March 15, 2020
Between the end of 2015 (when I settled on multiple [simple] moving average envelopes as the way for me to go) and today, there is not a lot that has changed as far as the way I regard the different parameters. So, in thinking about: "What have you been doing then for the last four years?" I have a couple of thoughts…
The first is that, though there is not a lot of difference in how I see most settings, it took me this long to ultimately decide which ones to look at and which ones to more-or-less ignore. There is a finality and specificity as to how I regard each indicator at this point that had not been established up until now.
Also, though I use configurations that enable me to check higher and lower time frame market sentiment all on one chart—without toggling back and forth from one chart setup to another—I nonetheless had to clarify why I still found it necessary to switch back and forth anyway, and what all was involved.
In short, though I pretty much have the same things on my one-minute charts that I have on my one hour-charts, the one-hour charts are lacking in detail, and the one-minute charts have a hard time doing an adequate job of conveying the big picture.
Five-minute charts are a happy medium, but they don't paint the big picture as clearly as one hour charts, nor do they reveal what is happening in detail as clearly as one-minute charts. So, I find it necessary to use all three.
This implies I have concluded 15-minute charts and 30-minute charts are of little use to me, which is indeed the case. Moreover, as far as the practicality of using longer-term charts on a daily basis is concerned, I have little use for weekly and monthly charts as well, and only refer to daily charts on a somewhat infrequent basis, as I feel the need arises.
Between the end of 2015 (when I settled on multiple [simple] moving average envelopes as the way for me to go) and today, there is not a lot that has changed as far as the way I regard the different parameters. So, in thinking about: "What have you been doing then for the last four years?" I have a couple of thoughts…
The first is that, though there is not a lot of difference in how I see most settings, it took me this long to ultimately decide which ones to look at and which ones to more-or-less ignore. There is a finality and specificity as to how I regard each indicator at this point that had not been established up until now.
Also, though I use configurations that enable me to check higher and lower time frame market sentiment all on one chart—without toggling back and forth from one chart setup to another—I nonetheless had to clarify why I still found it necessary to switch back and forth anyway, and what all was involved.
In short, though I pretty much have the same things on my one-minute charts that I have on my one hour-charts, the one-hour charts are lacking in detail, and the one-minute charts have a hard time doing an adequate job of conveying the big picture.
Five-minute charts are a happy medium, but they don't paint the big picture as clearly as one hour charts, nor do they reveal what is happening in detail as clearly as one-minute charts. So, I find it necessary to use all three.
This implies I have concluded 15-minute charts and 30-minute charts are of little use to me, which is indeed the case. Moreover, as far as the practicality of using longer-term charts on a daily basis is concerned, I have little use for weekly and monthly charts as well, and only refer to daily charts on a somewhat infrequent basis, as I feel the need arises.
Monday / March 30, 2020 / 12:50 PM PST
I finalize my one-hour chart setup a couple of weeks ago and the best two versions of my five-minute chart configuration this week and last. This has led to the one-minute chart pictured below which I'm satisfied communicates to me what is going on in the market relatively clearly, as evidenced by my last ten trades...
Below is the current (and probably close to final) version of my consideration checklist for deciding precisely when and where to enter and exit positions:
I finalize my one-hour chart setup a couple of weeks ago and the best two versions of my five-minute chart configuration this week and last. This has led to the one-minute chart pictured below which I'm satisfied communicates to me what is going on in the market relatively clearly, as evidenced by my last ten trades...
Below is the current (and probably close to final) version of my consideration checklist for deciding precisely when and where to enter and exit positions:
- Where is the red moving average in relation to the short-term (yellow) baseline?
- What are the slopes of the short-term (yellow), intermediate (blue and green moving average cluster), and longer-term (gray) baselines and how flat or steep are they?
- Where are these three baselines (thin yellow, blue-green cluster, and bold gray) in relation to each another?
- Where is price located within the immediate (thin double-lined) price range?
- Where is price located within the intermediate (tan) price range?
- Where is price located within the maximum (bold black) price range?
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Tuesday / March 31, 2020 / 12:00 Noon
The trades I made this morning reinforce the importance I attribute to monitoring and managing my positions (if I have the time to do so) when it comes to implementing my system profitably. Had I simply placed my orders and walked away, I would have probably been stopped out of almost half these trades for losses.
In fact, that I suffered only one literal loss is due in part to my having actually violated one of the cardinal rules of trading, that being—do not widen your stops!
In the words of the School of Pipsology: "Traders, especially the more inexperienced ones, often question themselves and lose…objectivity when the pain of losing kicks in and brings in negative thoughts like, 'Maybe the market will turn right here. I should hold a bit longer and then it will go my way.'"
However, trading using the Cycles, Waves & Envelopes version of Numerical Price Prediction paints a very clear picture as to which direction rates are headed, the ranges of amplitudes and frequencies that fall within a realistic realm of possibility, and when the market is evidencing dramatic changes in dynamics.
When I saw my positions about to be stopped out without a dramatic change in dynamics, and without violating the ranges of amplitudes and frequencies that fell within a realistic realm of possibility, I adjusted my stops (and take-profit targets) accordingly and waited for the almost inevitable reversals to manifest, which they eventually did within the projected parameters/limits forecast by the system.
Again, according to the School of Pipsology: "If the market has reached your stop, your reason for the trade is no longer valid and it’s time to close it out."
But, this is true only if I set my stops at the most extreme levels of all the possible options, which I do not. This is because, rather than select entry and exit levels on the basis of reward-risk ratios (such as 3:1), I do so based on the sole objective of walking away with a profit.
If I can do this with a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio…wonderful! However, the numbers in which I am primarily interested have to do with mathematical odds and statistical probability, and it is these figures that dictate my actions—not reward-to-risk ratios or a dogmatic rule such as “stick to your stops,” which is wonderful for helping traders avoid making decisions based on emotions, but does not necessarily apply to situations where the rationale for one’s actions is based almost totally on logic.
The trades I made this morning reinforce the importance I attribute to monitoring and managing my positions (if I have the time to do so) when it comes to implementing my system profitably. Had I simply placed my orders and walked away, I would have probably been stopped out of almost half these trades for losses.
In fact, that I suffered only one literal loss is due in part to my having actually violated one of the cardinal rules of trading, that being—do not widen your stops!
In the words of the School of Pipsology: "Traders, especially the more inexperienced ones, often question themselves and lose…objectivity when the pain of losing kicks in and brings in negative thoughts like, 'Maybe the market will turn right here. I should hold a bit longer and then it will go my way.'"
However, trading using the Cycles, Waves & Envelopes version of Numerical Price Prediction paints a very clear picture as to which direction rates are headed, the ranges of amplitudes and frequencies that fall within a realistic realm of possibility, and when the market is evidencing dramatic changes in dynamics.
When I saw my positions about to be stopped out without a dramatic change in dynamics, and without violating the ranges of amplitudes and frequencies that fell within a realistic realm of possibility, I adjusted my stops (and take-profit targets) accordingly and waited for the almost inevitable reversals to manifest, which they eventually did within the projected parameters/limits forecast by the system.
Again, according to the School of Pipsology: "If the market has reached your stop, your reason for the trade is no longer valid and it’s time to close it out."
But, this is true only if I set my stops at the most extreme levels of all the possible options, which I do not. This is because, rather than select entry and exit levels on the basis of reward-risk ratios (such as 3:1), I do so based on the sole objective of walking away with a profit.
If I can do this with a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio…wonderful! However, the numbers in which I am primarily interested have to do with mathematical odds and statistical probability, and it is these figures that dictate my actions—not reward-to-risk ratios or a dogmatic rule such as “stick to your stops,” which is wonderful for helping traders avoid making decisions based on emotions, but does not necessarily apply to situations where the rationale for one’s actions is based almost totally on logic.