Duxon's Archive

[expiated]

Thursday / January 23, 2020 / 8:30 a.m. PST

Based on last night's activity, where I thought the Aussie pairs might be in the process of reversing direction due to employment figures, but then concluded that they were not, forcing me to take action to ensure I finished the day with more money in my account than when I started... I am now inclined to operate under the notion that it is best to trust that the parameters defining my trading system will hold unless the most extreme fundamental factors have come into play, such as a change in interest rates, some type of election, or an announcement by a government official informing everyone of some world-changing decision.

Given the amount of faith I have in the above-mentioned parameters, the likelihood that they are going to change at some point in the future is virtually zero. So all I am doing at this point is executing trades in accordance with a uniform set of actions that seem to naturally follow given the logic of the overall system.

However, this protocol is not yet defined with crystal clarity, so to correct this situation, I am listing the steps I am using as I now perceive them so that I can describe them better over time as I get a better handle on exactly what I am doing, when I am doing it, and why…

To make the best use of Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) a trader should conceptualize price action as waves of designated frequencies cutting swaths of area inside the market domain with an observable degree of directionality (i.e., the aforementioned Shoreline Touch Strategy).

With this in mind, an individual can trade profitably if he or she operates in the following manner:

1. Establish the direction of the day-to-day trend
2. Determine whether the hourly trend is bullish or bearish
3. Note the slope of the riverbank envelope
4. Note the slope of the shoreline envelope
5. Establish the location of price within the day range
6. Establish the location of price within the shoreline envelope
7. Note the position of price within the riverbank envelope
8. Note the hour of the day

The ideal trade setup exists when one aspect of the above features is out of whack with all the rest. For example, if price is located at the top of the riverbank envelope, and the day-to-day trend, shoreline envelope, and riverbank envelope are all sloping downward, then one is looking at a set of conditions ideally structured for entering a short position.

The same would be true if the day-to-day trend were bearish and price was located at the top of the shoreline envelope.

In one sense, these situations could be viewed as pullbacks in the predominate trend. In another, they might be seen as examples of mean reversion or regression toward the mean. Either way, the point is to analyze the relationships between trend, average price range, horizontal support and resistance, reoccurring price patterns, and market structure to make an accurate prediction as to where price is likely to be in the not-too-distant future.

The main point is that at the core of this system is a reliance on mathematical odds and statistical probability. The decision-making process should involve as little subjectivity as possible. This is a data crunching system where a trader's level of success is dependent on the degree to which he or she is willing to do exactly what the numbers demand and nothing else because the numbers are all based on objective reality.

 

[expiated]

I'm posting this same information in the three threads where I might look for it in the future so that I will be able to find it easily if necessary.

This is a data crunching system where a trader's level of success is dependent on the degree to which he or she is willing to do exactly what the numbers demand and nothing else because the numbers are all based on objective reality.

This is a perfect example of what I’m talking about (see below). And the trader should be prepared to take profit here, even though it is only about five pip’s worth of gains. Price could go higher, but if the asset begins to exhibit any signs of weakness at all, what the trader should plan to do is exit here and then reenter a long position somewhere around 120.68 because THAT’S what the historical data, reoccurring price patterns, average price ranges, and statistical support levels all indicate price might very well opt to do. It’s all about key levels and knowing where to enter and exit trades in advance.

 

[expiated]

Updated NPP Decision-making Checklist:

1. Establish the direction of the day-to-day trend
2. Determine whether the hourly trend is bullish or bearish
3. Note the slope of the riverbank envelope
4. Note the slope of the shoreline envelope
5. Establish the location of price within the day range
6. Establish the location of price within the shoreline envelope
7. Note the position of price within the riverbank envelope
8. Note the hour of the day
9. Review the economic calendar

 

[expiated]

Memorize the Passages Quoted Below

It is possible I could begin trading via my Nadex live account as early as next week, and probably no later than next month. I won't be risking that much in raw terms...just a hundred dollars, but I will be breaking the 1% rule about as flagrantly as can be done. However, the Shoreline Touch version of Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) has an extremely high win rate, so that if I use it successfully and double my take every week, it is not inconceivable that I could hypothetically see weekly returns as high as $3,200 by the seventh week.

Accordingly, I intend to begin preparing now by planning where I will be focusing my thoughts in advance. For one thing, I plan to recite Deuteronomy 8, verses 17 and 18a at the end of every successful day of trading at the very least, if not after every successful trade...

"Beware lest you say in your heart, 'My power and the might of my hand have gotten me this wealth.' You shall remember the Lord your God, for it is he who gives you power to get wealth..."

Also, because it is easy to begin to feel superior when one makes a lot of money, I have rearranged verses I memorized in the past on the perils of pride so that I can memorize them again more easily, for reciting probably on a daily basis as well…

“God hates pride and arrogance. Everyone who is arrogant in heart is an abomination to the Lord. Be assured, he will not go unpunished. Haughty eyes and a proud heart—the lamp of the wicked—are sin. So, let another praise you and not your own mouth; a stranger and not your own lips. Do not boast about tomorrow, for you do not know what a day may bring. The Lord tears down the house of the proud. It is better to be of a lowly spirit with the poor than to divide the spoil with the proud. Pride goes before destruction and a haughty spirit before a fall. Before destruction a man’s heart is haughty, but humility comes before honor. When pride comes, then comes disgrace. But with the humble is wisdom. One’s pride will bring him low, but he who is lowly in spirit will obtain honor.”

 

[expiated]

Tuesday Morning / January 28, 2020 / 11:5 AM PST

I could not trade this morning because the Internet was out at the place where I'm currently living, but it would appear to me that my scalping days (as I define scalping) are now over. My trade decisions are, at this point, all under the dictate of the math (i.e., the numbers). Trading is, as it should be, essentially a waiting game. It is all about being patient until and unless rates arrive at key, statistically derived, predesignated levels where the market makers seek to drive price against the prevailing trend so they are able to reverse direction and exit these select regions with liquidity.

Consequently, the minimum number of pips I expect a given trade to yield will, generally speaking, be no less than ten, with 15 to 30 constituting the norm. (More than this is atypical in that, unless driven by some unusually strong fundamental influence, rates, do not tend to take a direct path toward their targets.)

In theory, I should almost never experience a losing trade when operating in this manner, except on those occasions when the market makers reverse the predominant trend. Even then, there should often be times when I can escape such losing positions at break even, and if not, my losses should be very limited stemming from where I place my stops...

I am, as of this moment, now 100% into what I hope and believe to be the final iteration of Numerical Price Prediction (NPP)—the Shoreline Touch Strategy—with the last open positions remaining from previous techniques having been exited as recorded above.

 

[easymon1]

waiting

They should call it Waiting instead of Trading.
The alternative is called go broking. lol
cued,why wait when you don't have to, lol

 

[expiated]

DEALING WITH THE ANTICS OF THE MULTINATIONAL BANKS

I used to be of the opinion that, even if one had the trend correct, a retail trader needed to allow for about 35 pips-worth of “wiggle room” to avoid being stopped out by the market makers’ shenanigans. However, I’m hoping to discover that this no longer applies when implementing the Shoreline Touch Strategy in that compensation for the “big boys’” high jinks is already built into the system so that ten pips of wiggle room should be sufficient.

 

[expiated]

Friday / January 31, 2020 / 11:00 a.m. PST

I think this is probably a new era for me. In reviewing each of the currency pairs for the last 24 hours, as I am noting several five-minute chart trade setups and their rationale in my laptop's "lessons" file, I am struck by how everything is very clear and logical so that the possibility of changing any configurations going forward is very tiny.

I will probably soon catalog all the indicators I'm currently using and delete all others—another sign that the previous phase is over. That I am closing out a chapter is also suggested by my looking into newly discovered theories similar to my own (purely out of curiosity) rather than attempting to develop my system any further (which I do not see any way of doing). So a new phase of activity has perhaps begun, with a final destination that is unclear to me at this time.

 

[expiated]

24/7 Wall Street

Here are things to do (and not do) if you become wealthy in an instant or in a very short time period.
by Jon C. Ogg

1. Get Immediate Tax and Legal Representation, Ahead of Time If Possible

Having proper tax and legal professionals is a must for most of the newly wealthy (and those who are already wealthy as well). Knowing your tax burden for a sudden slew of money is of the utmost importance. When possible, speak to tax and legal professionals in depth before you sign a deal or before you receive the cash. Doing so may possibly save you thousands, or even millions, of dollars.

To accomplish proper tax and legal representation, getting a certified public accountant (CPA) is a must, and it may require a tax attorney. Maybe this sounds expensive up front, but it is more than just worth it — it should be mandatory.

2. Get a Very Reputable Financial Advisor

After you find out what your rights to the money are from your new lawyers, and after you find out what your tax burden is on your new fortune, lining up a reputable financial advisor is paramount. This is where you need to avoid penny-stock brokers or people who try to sell you complex financial products that are hard to understand with high commissions.

A good financial advisor from a very reputable firm is going to know that you will need money sometimes or regularly. They will know what mix of stocks, bonds and other asset classes are appropriate for your situation and your life ahead. They probably even will be a crucial part of your creating a budget, and they will help to set proper expectations of what your assets can do for you. Lastly, introduce your financial advisor to your legal and tax professionals. Remember, the left hand needs to know what the right is trying to do, particularly ahead of each tax time.

3. Keep It Under Wraps

If you can, keep the fact that you just became rich to yourself for as long as you can stand it. Even then, give it another week. If you run out and brag and tell everyone you know, you might have just become a target. Your friends and family may ask you for help or to participate in financial dealings in which you don’t want to be or shouldn’t be involved. Other friends or family may become envious or treat you differently. Then there is the worst of the lot: scam artists or criminals who go after you. Maybe you’ve heard of kidnap and ransom insurance before (yes, it’s real). Sadly, at least two lottery winners have turned up murdered after winning the lottery.

4. Be Sensible About Your New Life and How You Want to Live

Consider what lifestyle you grew up with or are used to, and be realistic about what sort of lifestyle you would really like to have after becoming wealthy. Do you want to keep working, or do you want to phase that down or quit work entirely? Think about what you want to buy, and be sensible. This will play into a budget that you keep getting preached to about throughout. It is important to avoid the temptation to become an instant high-roller or to live too large.

5. Create a Budget That You Can Live With

Now that you’ve received all the upfront advice, it’s time to think about what you would like to do with your money, after you have thought about how you really want to live. Getting with your new financial advisor and coming up with a budget is imperative for your future financial health. If you suddenly come into $1 million, a budget of $10,000 will last you for just over eight years, without considering income or losses. Averaging just 2% per year for the very conservative barely moves the needle on how long the money will last.

7. Make Your Money Work for You

This is where your financial advisory, lawyers and tax pros cumulatively are going to help you, and it lays the foundation for all of your contingencies inside of a budget. Some people who quickly become super-rich change very little about their lives. Some even keep working every day. But for those who will quit work entirely, or for the most part, it’s important to consider the phrase “It takes money to make money.”

10. Know Yourself and Your Limitations

With a team of professionals trying to keep your life set for the years or decades ahead, it is very important to be smart about your own limitations and skills. Again, becoming rich comes with responsibility. Making a smart investment or having a liquidity event at work does not always mean you are a master of money and finance. It is important to know how to protect yourself ahead of time if people come asking you for money, because chances are high someone you know will.

11. Being Careful About Friends, Family and Acquaintances

Remember how you were told to keep it a secret that you just became rich? Now you might have to remain protected from your friends and family, and old acquaintances may suddenly be calling you. Don’t feel like you have to set up the Bank of Family & Friends, and don’t feel like you need to go buy everything for everyone. It is important to protect your assets, which again goes back to your budgeting. If you didn’t get rich by your own efforts in business, chances are high that you should avoid becoming everyone’s business backer. If you knew nothing about venture capital and private equity last week, getting a big check today is not likely at all to change your knowledge any time soon. It is also important to know that how you give money to people may create tax events for them—or for you!

 

[expiated]

Here are things to do (and not do) if you become wealthy in an instant or in a very short time period.
by Jon C. Ogg

1. Get Immediate Tax and Legal Representation, Ahead of Time If Possible

Here are some Los Angles area CPAs and financial advisers to look into, if and when the time should come...