Duxon's Archive

Friday / January 3, 2020 / 11:30 a.m. PST

Last night I started using a configuration involving the number 31 (in case you forget which one you were talking about here) that is ideal for what NPP is all about (i.e., making strategic trades based on the relationships between market structure, horizontal support and resistance levels, reoccurring price patterns, typical price ranges in multiple time frames, and trend lines—also in multiple time frames).

It's not all that different from what I was already using, but it is sort of like more perfectly tuned to the rationale and logic of NPP, with no superfluous lines and an assortment of indicators such that when and where to enter trades has a clarity I do not feel I was operating with previously. Hopefully this is all coming together at the same time that I am restocking discretionary funds (after Christmas) so that when I return to my live account(s) everything will be clicking like clockwork, God willing.
 
Friday, January 3, 2020 / 9:00 p.m. PST

Let this be the last word (I pray) on how I might best implement my Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) Forex trading strategy, with the system protocol being as follows…
  1. First, establish that the relevant asset is clearly evidencing an upward or downward trajectory, as conveyed by what Patrick (VP) of No Nonsense Forex calls the baseline—what I conceptualize as the day-to-day moving average. (All trades will be executed in this direction.)
  2. Wait for the side of the “inner worm” that is away from the direction of the day-to-day trend to make contact with the corresponding shoreline of the tsunami/tidal wave, which in this scenario will also function as the “outer snake.”
  3. Enter trades as the candlesticks bounce off these key statistical support/resistance levels if trading aggressively, or when reversals are confirmed by (the equivalence of) the one-hour instantaneous moving average if trading conservatively. (Do not forget to take the slope of the one-hour IMA and the overall slope of the intraday SMA Envelope into consideration when making decisions on whether to enter or exit positions.)
Basically, it’s as simple as that.

(NOTE: If scalping, the worm and the one-hour IMA will become the primary measures guiding your decisions, and you will have to drop down to a lower time frame where “the worm” will become “the snake” and a new more precisely calibrated worm will be added to the chart.)
 
NUMERICAL PRICE PREDICTION TRADING PROTOCOL:
  1. Establish that the relevant asset is clearly evidencing an upward or downward trajectory, as conveyed by the day-to-day trend. (All trades will be executed in this direction.)
  2. Wait for the side of the “inner worm” that is away from the direction of the day-to-day trend to make contact with the corresponding shoreline of the tsunami/tidal wave, which in this scenario will also function as the “outer snake.”
  3. Enter trades as the candlesticks bounce off these key statistical support/resistance levels if trading aggressively, or when reversals are confirmed by (the equivalence of) the one-hour instantaneous moving average if trading conservatively.
  4. Do not forget to take the slopes of: (1) the one-hour IMA; (2) the intraday SMA Envelope; AND (3) the outer snake/tidal wave/tsunami into consideration when making decisions on whether to enter or exit positions.
  5. Take profit when candlesticks make contact with the side/band of the "inner worm" that corresponds with (matches) the direction of the day-to-day trend if trading conservatively, or if trading more aggressively, wait until candlesticks make contact with the side/band of the tidal wave/tsunami ("outer snake") that corresponds with (matches) the direction of the day-to-day trend.
  6. NOTE: If scalping, the inner worm and the one-hour IMA will become the primary measures guiding your decisions, and you will have to drop down to a lower time frame where the inner worm will become the outer snake and a new more precisely calibrated inner worm will be added to the lower-time-frame chart.
 
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For my consideration...​

Trading the 2020 Numerical Price Prediction chart configuration​
ScreenHunter_7379 Jan. 04 06.32.jpg
 
Saturday, January 4, 2020 / 4:15 p.m. PST

I've made one more of the sure-to-be-final-few refinements to one of my chart setups and what I'm seeing strikes me personally as kind of amazing. I have no idea why no one already did what I'm now doing, or perhaps they did and simply chose not to share it with the public. Even I'm going to be pretty tight-lipped about where I am at this point in my exploration and simply record what happens when today's and future developments (if any) are applied to standard and binary option Forex accounts.
 
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Sunday, January 5, 2020 / 9:35 a.m. PST

As it turns out, I will not be partnering with anyone from Serbia, Pakistan or Nigeria, but I now have another interested party—this time from Saudi Arabia—so it will be interesting to see if this individual is really serious.
 
Sunday, January 5, 2020 / 9:45 a.m. PST

What is Numerical Price Prediction?

NPP is a unique and innovative day trading strategy that evolved out of an effort to abide by two biblical principles: (1) Test everything and hold fast to that which is good. (2) Rightly interpret the signs of the times.

As a result, the approach ended up rejecting the use of most technical analysis indicators, settling instead on a methodology based almost entirely on statistical analysis and mathematical probability—transforming trading from a somewhat subjective enterprise reliant on a certain amount of guesswork to an objective, logic-driven process of determining nearly inevitable outcomes.

Basically, Numerical Price Prediction is a key levels system designed to reveal where multinational institutional Forex traders (i.e., the big banks) are entering or exiting positions with liquidity to reverse market direction—the pivotal zones where buying or selling pressure is greatest. It works by making market forecasts using a methodology similar to that employed by meteorologists when predicting the weather. In other words, it evaluates precise, up-to-date quantitative information and then calculates the odds of rates reaching designated values within a given time period.

It all comes down to correctly interpreting the relationships between market structure, horizontal support/resistance levels, reoccurring price patterns, typical price ranges in multiple time frames, and prevailing trends, also in multiple time frames.

NPP does this by viewing the Forex market from a slightly different angle from what has been the norm. Rather than conceptualize price action as a series of financial transactions more-or-less represented by trend lines, it views price movement as cutting wide swaths of values via wave-like patterns across the domain of the corresponding asset, forming bands of quantifiable amplitude that flow with directional tendency.

This results in a sort of dynamic price range trading technique in which the decision to enter or exit a position is determined by the peaks and troughs occurring near the extremes of the above-mentioned price waves, close to their maximum amplitudes.

The rules are as follows…
  1. Establish that the asset under consideration is clearly evidencing an upward or downward trajectory as conveyed by the designated “baseline.” (If this is not the case, do not trade it.)
  2. Wait for price to reach what market structure, reoccurring price patterns, and typical price ranges interpret as a key level, where the amplitude of the corresponding price wave is at or near its maximum value.
  3. Enter trades as price bounces off these key statistical support/resistance levels, especially after being confirmed by the designated “trigger” line, but only after considering the slopes of all related measures to ensure structure supports the decision being made.
  4. Take profit when price reaches the far side of the price wave that initiated the above transaction.
This is a relatively simple, yet extremely effective approach to day trading.
 
expiated said:
NPP is a unique and innovative day trading strategy that evolved out of an effort to abide by two biblical principles: (1) Test everything and hold fast to that which is good. (2) Rightly interpret the signs of the times.
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Monday / January 6, 2020

It is what it is. At this point, all I’m doing with NPP is trading it. There is now nothing I can see which I have the ability to refine, tweak, adjust or nuance.

ScreenHunter_7393 Jan. 06 15.57.jpg


However, there is another principle I would add to being skeptical of everything and interpreting things correctly, and this is the principle of consensus. There are some who say a trader should use only one moving average, or two at the most; but I find I get a clearer picture from several—and of course, this whole journey began with my “multiple simple moving average envelope” system.

Sure, one can overdo it, and I have, but there is a sweet spot, at least for me, where there are just enough graphics to maximize clarity without clutter.

As the ESV states in Proverbs 11:14, “Where there is no guidance, a people falls, but in an abundance of counselors there is safety.” Or as the NIV puts it, “For lack of guidance a nation falls, but victory is won through many advisers.”

And then there is Proverbs 15:22… “Without counsel plans fail, but with many advisers they succeed.” And finally, Proverbs 24:6 offers the following: “For by wise guidance you can wage your war, and in an abundance of counselors there is victory.”
 
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Saturday / January 11, 2020

Refer to globalprime dot com dot au's article titled: Building a Trading System with a Baseline as Cornerstone posted on 09 July, 2019 when you are ready to write something on the topic.
 
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