Duxon's Archive
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It's not how to start, its how you finish, and by the looks of it you finished great!
Gotta lose to win...
Good job!
Wednesday / November 20, 2019
As I move toward solidifying how I conceptualize trading foreign currency pairs, I'm posting this record of how I picture it at this time to have a permanent record of its configuration as I initially imagined it.
Basically, I'm looking at four sets of directional bias lines: long-term, intermediate, intraday, and short-term; two or three sets of simple moving average envelopes (depending on how you look at it); and a single Donchian channel.
As I move toward solidifying how I conceptualize trading foreign currency pairs, I'm posting this record of how I picture it at this time to have a permanent record of its configuration as I initially imagined it.
Basically, I'm looking at four sets of directional bias lines: long-term, intermediate, intraday, and short-term; two or three sets of simple moving average envelopes (depending on how you look at it); and a single Donchian channel.
Friday / November 22, 2019 / 10:00 p.m. PST
I continue to trade the NPP system using a pseudo-swing style of trading, even though a scalping/guerrilla style would probably be more profitable due to taking advantage of virtually every trade opportunity. I do so to conserve effort, given that day trading can be very labor intensive.
However, I might make the switch at any time now, and am therefore noting the following observations in preparation for this…
Note:
Examples of the type of setups constituting potential entry levels are labeled one through five. When candlesticks begin forming (pulling back) to the outside of the bold Chande-Kroll stop, wait for them to reenter it, especially after having made contact with the outer thick-lined Donchian channel.
Execute trades when reversals are confirmed by candlestick crossing back inside the bold blue frequency wave (which was added due to the original blue frequency waves evidencing too much fluctuation, and the crimson frequency waves exhibiting too much lag).
Exit positions (take profit) when candlestick formation, the Chande-Kroll stop, and the (blue and red) frequency waves all suggest an exchange rate has ended its forward progress on the opposite side of the channels in the direction of the slope of the directional bias trend lines.
(It would appear that the River Banks and Tsunami Shorelines are pretty much ignored at this level.)
I continue to trade the NPP system using a pseudo-swing style of trading, even though a scalping/guerrilla style would probably be more profitable due to taking advantage of virtually every trade opportunity. I do so to conserve effort, given that day trading can be very labor intensive.
However, I might make the switch at any time now, and am therefore noting the following observations in preparation for this…
Note:
- The long-term Universal Directional Bias Trio, otherwise known as “ghost lines,” are omitted from this setup in that their settings were too high to be rendered.
- The intermediate Global Directional Bias Threefold Cord is now recolored chocolate, Peru, and dark goldenrod for this "micromanagement" configuration.
- The intraday Local Directional Bias Duo has been made into a Trio by plotting a grayish moving average between the green and purple ones.
- A shorter-term thin-lined intermediate Donchian channel has been added, as well as a bold inner Chande-Kroll stop channel.
Examples of the type of setups constituting potential entry levels are labeled one through five. When candlesticks begin forming (pulling back) to the outside of the bold Chande-Kroll stop, wait for them to reenter it, especially after having made contact with the outer thick-lined Donchian channel.
Execute trades when reversals are confirmed by candlestick crossing back inside the bold blue frequency wave (which was added due to the original blue frequency waves evidencing too much fluctuation, and the crimson frequency waves exhibiting too much lag).
Exit positions (take profit) when candlestick formation, the Chande-Kroll stop, and the (blue and red) frequency waves all suggest an exchange rate has ended its forward progress on the opposite side of the channels in the direction of the slope of the directional bias trend lines.
(It would appear that the River Banks and Tsunami Shorelines are pretty much ignored at this level.)
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Note that after making the changes, the "Yellow Brick Road" (short-term Directional Bias Cluster) once again adds more rhyme and reason to the micro configuration, with price tending to eventually "drift" to whichever side of the "Road" the crimson moving averages (and blue frequency waves, but only at certain times) are located...
This is of particular value in contexts such as the market structure pictured here, when the longer-term clusters are out of alignment and/or more-or-less neutral, so that the only trade opportunities are short-term scalping/guerrilla attack situations.
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Tuesday / December 3, 2019 / 1:00 p.m. PST
A week-and-a-half later and I have no new thoughts to add nor have I made even a single slight adjustment or modification. I think there is a good chance I can finally put Numerical Price Prediction on complete cruise control now.
I registered for some kind of "CME Group Trade Against a Pro Trading Challenge" about which I wrote that I wasn't sure it would be worth my time, but after having messed with their platform a couple of days, I might change my mind.
It appears winning would require a daily return of approximately $20,000 which is a ridiculous goal for me, but if, for example, I were to trade the maximum number of contracts (10) with respect to a single asset, such as NZQ9, I don't think it is out of the question. Trading for just an hour or two between an intraday range this morning, I managed a return of $1,700...
I tried to enter a position last night, but everything was black and inactive. I don't know if it was the outfit's irritating platform, or something with my connection, but all other websites were working just fine. They also have about the most annoying automatic bouncy drop-down menu I have ever encountered in my entire life!!!
I would imagine if I came close to trading 24/7 I could take advantage of the kind of monster runs I missed last night (see the black oval) and the night before, that would be added to the more modest gains I'm "enjoying" presently (see the blue ovals).
But I still have to decide if the remotely theoretical possibility of winning $2500 would be worth the very real irritation of using their platform as well as missing out on a lot of precious slumber.
A week-and-a-half later and I have no new thoughts to add nor have I made even a single slight adjustment or modification. I think there is a good chance I can finally put Numerical Price Prediction on complete cruise control now.
I registered for some kind of "CME Group Trade Against a Pro Trading Challenge" about which I wrote that I wasn't sure it would be worth my time, but after having messed with their platform a couple of days, I might change my mind.
It appears winning would require a daily return of approximately $20,000 which is a ridiculous goal for me, but if, for example, I were to trade the maximum number of contracts (10) with respect to a single asset, such as NZQ9, I don't think it is out of the question. Trading for just an hour or two between an intraday range this morning, I managed a return of $1,700...
I tried to enter a position last night, but everything was black and inactive. I don't know if it was the outfit's irritating platform, or something with my connection, but all other websites were working just fine. They also have about the most annoying automatic bouncy drop-down menu I have ever encountered in my entire life!!!
I would imagine if I came close to trading 24/7 I could take advantage of the kind of monster runs I missed last night (see the black oval) and the night before, that would be added to the more modest gains I'm "enjoying" presently (see the blue ovals).
But I still have to decide if the remotely theoretical possibility of winning $2500 would be worth the very real irritation of using their platform as well as missing out on a lot of precious slumber.
Note to self...
If and when you should ever desire to revisit the posts from this month on phony prop firms, you will find it here:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/prop-firms-in-knoxville-tn.338427/page-2#post-4974499
If and when you should ever desire to revisit the posts from this month on phony prop firms, you will find it here:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/prop-firms-in-knoxville-tn.338427/page-2#post-4974499
Friday / December 6, 2019 / 9:30 a.m. PST
There is not really anything new, but the way you have arranged things is. This is your most recent favorite 15-minute chart configuration, which you absolutely love...
It was derived from the "5-Minute Binary Option tunnel," and then transported from 60- to 15-minute charts. The indicators are all proprietary except for the Donchian channel (although actually, you also once coded such a thing yourself, but then [re]discovered it already existed.)
There is not really anything new, but the way you have arranged things is. This is your most recent favorite 15-minute chart configuration, which you absolutely love...
It was derived from the "5-Minute Binary Option tunnel," and then transported from 60- to 15-minute charts. The indicators are all proprietary except for the Donchian channel (although actually, you also once coded such a thing yourself, but then [re]discovered it already existed.)
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