Duxon's Archive

expiated · Oct 9, 2019

Tuesday / October 8, 2019 / 9:20 p.m. PST

These are good results for me personally, given that I am trading the Dynamic Price Range system improperly, using a pseudo-swing style of trading rather than the hands-on full-time monitoring and managing methodology for which it was designed.

Theoretically, when I switch to full-time (supposedly next year, though it was supposed to be last month until I ended up with a source of discretionary funds probably greater than I could have initially generated trading full-time) I should be able to grind out an even bigger daily haul than I managed yesterday, because I can: (1) take advantage of every opportunity; (2) enter positions at the precise time and place the forecast model suggests is optimum; (3) let my winners run; and (4) exit positions as soon as circumstances turn against me for a small profit or minimum loss as opposed to being stopped out after being deprived of a significant chunk of chain like the loss handed to me by AUDJPY.

It will be funny and ironic if I find instead that my performance actually suffers due to over trading (not REALLY funny). But given the way the system is designed, I don't seriously think that's likely to turn out to be the case, especially when combined with the discipline I've developed over a grand total of about eleven years of trading (counting stocks, futures, and Forex).

expiated · Oct 15, 2019

MONTHLY PRICE RANGE STRATEGY

I created a monthly chart setup recently that, as a day trader, I practically never use. However, I'm curious as to how much validity it might have, or lack thereof. Yet, I don't really want to create another thread for this purpose, so I decided probably the best place to record my thoughts would be here.

So if GBPJPY closes out October up around 138.80, I would think that, unless the fundamentals have flat out reversed market sentiment to bullish, November will see the pair form a red candlestick.

The same is true of GBPUSD, which is currently at 1.2757. The opposite is true of EURGBP, which is presently at 0.8645, except that the Euro-Pound looks like it might already be evidencing a legitimate southbound reversal, in which case, perhaps another (fourth) red candlestick would not be out of the question.

AUDJPY has been headed south for two years now. So given that September's candlestick was green, if October remains green as well, I would think November will be red, provided this pair intends to remain bearish—especially if the pair climbs up around the 75.50 neighborhood by the end of the month (but that would be another 200 pips).

The same is true of CADJPY, though it has only been falling for about a year, and not as dramatically. At 82.39, it would need to climb up to around 83.75 near the end of the month to maximize the likelihood of November forming a red candlestick. Ditto EURJPY, currently at 120.00, with the top of the range estimated to be around 122.25.

I would also look for USDJPY to form a red candlestick in November provided it closes October somewhere in the neighborhood of 110.60.

expiated · Oct 18, 2019

Friday / October 18, 2019 / 7:00 p.m. PST

Not too long ago I responded to a thread asking about the differences between position trading foreign currency pairs and position trading equities. In my post I commented on my feeling that currency pairs tend to trend better and I included a screen shot of AUDJPY to make my point.

In an effort to make a guaranteed profit whenever possible, now that I am no longer developing the Numerical Price Prediction, Dynamic Price Range or Cycle Theory systems (and have piqued my own curiosity with respect to position trading Forex) I am going to turn some of my attention to this last topic, and might as well start with AUDJPY.

As I commented previously, the pair has been falling since mid to late 2017. However, it has been climbing all of September and October. Consequently, I will get real interested in pinpointing the right time to short this pair long term if it climbs a couple hundred more pips to find itself above the 75.41 level. (75.49 on the monthly chart)

I'll very interested in shorting AUDUSD (which has been falling during the same span of time) above 0.6985. (0.6974 on the monthly chart)

I am already interested in shorting CADJPY, but would prefer to see it climb just a tad bit higher before it begins its descent (if it actually does) at least up to 82.76. (83.88 on the monthly chart)

EURGBP has been range bound for the past two years, and I believe I see significant support at the 0.8500 handle, so if it drops another hundred pips down to that level, I will definitely be looking for opportunities to buy.

Having spent all of 2018 and 2019 in decline, EURJPY (122.25 on the monthly chart) is in a similar situation to CADJPY's, but EURUSD would have to climb all the way up to 1.1285.

GBPJPY and GBPUSD are already far into sell territory (on their monthly charts as well). I just need to wait for the correct moment to do so, provided there have been no fundamental changes in the fundamentals (a question I am unqualified to answer, given the Brexit situation).

I will get very interested in selling USDJPY once it climbs above 108.96. (Or perhaps not, since it is still well within the monthly price range.)

expiated · Oct 19, 2019

Friday / October 18, 2019 / 9:45 p.m. PST

I just used the weekly position trading chart to configured a daily position trading chart, and am now going to try blending the result with my daily mis-colored candlestick chart...

New Daily Position Trading Chart

expiated · Oct 19, 2019

expiated said:
I just used the weekly position trading chart to configured a daily position trading chart, and am now going to try blending the result with my daily mis-colored candlestick chart...

Comparing the result (on the right) with a daily chart I recalled using in the past, I see a number of similarities. However, I was not using the old chart for position trading, and in any event, I think the second chart is better suited for it.

expiated · Oct 26, 2019

Saturday / October 26, 2019

This month has seen an unexpected development in that I am now incorporating charts and principles from a position trading strategy in my day trading system. As a result, I have sort of resolved to stick to one (pseudo swing style) trade setup which virtually guarantees a favorable outcome and pretty much eliminates scalping altogether...

Results from Tuesday and Thursday

Unlike the position-trade-like opportunities I took advantage of this last week (which resulted in my being able to pocket my gains only two days out of four) the above-mentioned setup should theoretically enable me to lock in profits virtually every day.

My belief is that in using the setup, my daily take will easily outstrip 5% of my trading capital, far exceeding the 1.8% originally set as my target. So next week I will be curious to see whether or not this actually turns out to be true.

(P.S. Considering the potential reversals I observed on my daily charts this last week, and looking forward to November, I would not be surprised to see the thoughts I recorded in Post #72 come to fruition next month, God willing.)

expiated · Oct 27, 2019

expiated said:
This month has seen an unexpected development in that I am now incorporating charts and principles from a position trading strategy in my day trading system. As a result, I have sort of resolved to stick to one (pseudo swing style) trade setup which virtually guarantees a favorable outcome and pretty much eliminates scalping altogether...

Sunday / October 27, 2019

I forgot to mention that the setup referenced above is a simple matter of waiting for pullbacks in the hourly trend to then execute trades as it reverses direction to join the intraday and day-to-day trends.

expiated · Oct 29, 2019

Tuesday / October 29, 2019 / 9:50 a.m. PST

By the way, the name you gave the 15-minute configuration in your MT4 files is "White and Black 2."

expiated · Oct 30, 2019

It's looking to me like it might very well make sense not to execute trades until candlesticks cross over the maroon directional-tendency trend line. I will have to continue to observe to verify whether this is true.

expiated · Oct 30, 2019

expiated said:
It's looking to me like it might very well make sense not to execute trades until candlesticks cross over the maroon directional-tendency trend line. I will have to continue to observe to verify whether this is true.

Had I waited to short this pair I would have been late to the party, so clearly the above does not always hold true.