Duxon's Archive

[expiated]

Only two trades were made today...



However, in comparing more detailed charts to the guidelines laid out in post #19, I whittled things down so that when I return to full-time trading in September, God willing, the triple cluster pictured below will be waiting for me to dictate specific entry and exit points, though by then it is likely to be more refined.

 

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If EURUSD closes north of the yellow confirmation moving average it will suggest that the pair is perhaps ready to move north from 1.1231...

So it appears that EURUSD is going to continue heading south...

 

[expiated]

However, in comparing more detailed charts to the guidelines laid out in post #19, I whittled things down so that when I return to full-time trading in September, God willing, the triple cluster pictured below will be waiting for me to dictate specific entry and exit points, though by then it is likely to be more refined.

The indecision of EURUSD has already aided the above-mentioned process of refinement, with the green trend line serving as the primary arbiter of when to enter and exit positions, and the white moving average warning against thinking the longer-term trend has reversed direction, when in reality, it has not.

 

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So then, NPP is basically built on five moving averages or moving average clusters, categorized as follows:

1. A trio of day-to-day moving averages
2. An intraday moving average cluster
3. An hourly moving average
4. A tri-cluster set of short-term moving averages, and
5. An immediate (fluctuating) moving average (on one-minute charts only)

Position entries and exits are made based primarily on the tri-cluster set of short-term moving averages due to the fact that NPP forecast models suggest intraday day trading is the most profitable approach to buying and selling foreign currency pairs, and leads to the highest short-term and long-term success rates.

I am eliminating the intraday moving average cluster due to the fact that further refinement/analysis of my system suggests these lines are too slow to be actionable in terms of deciding when to enter and exit intrday positions, while at the same time, representing a point of view too limited (short-sighted) to be of use in conveying where price is ultimately headed (more than likely) in the long run.

I also deleted two members from the trio of day-to-day moving averages and replaced them with a more functional alternative. No, on second thought, let me rethink this...

The (white) alternative is more like a replacement for the intraday cluster—not those two day-to-day moving averages—except that it represents a significantly longer point of view so that it does a much better job of identifying the ultimate direction of price (more than likely) from an intraday perspective while simultaneously confirming the day-to-day trend via its positional relationship with the now single (green) day-to-day trend line. (If it is above the line, the day-to-day bias is considered bullish. If it is below the line, the day-to-day sentiment is deemed bearish.)

Also, the hourly moving average is now a part of the tri-cluster set of short-term intraday trend lines. So then, NPP is now basically built on four moving averages or moving average clusters, categorized as follows:

1. A day-to-day moving average
2. An intraday moving average
3. A tri-cluster set of short-term (hourly) moving averages, and
4. An immediate (fluctuating) moving average (on one-minute charts only)

 

[expiated]

So then, NPP is now basically built on four moving averages or moving average clusters, categorized as follows:

1. A day-to-day moving average
2. An intraday moving average
3. A tri-cluster set of short-term (hourly) moving averages, and
4. An immediate (fluctuating) moving average (on one-minute charts only)

Or perhaps this would be a more accurate conceptualization...

NPP is now basically built on five moving averages or moving average clusters, categorized as follows:

1. A day-to-day moving average (green)
2. An intraday moving average (white)
3. An hourly triple-moving-average cluster (black)
4. A double-cluster-duo of short-term moving averages (red and blue), and
5. An immediate (fluctuating) moving average (on one-minute charts only)

 

[expiated]

This is an experimental trade stemming from a theory about 4-hour charts...

 

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Those sneaky market makers tried to take out my stop (note the shooting star) before dropping the price...

This underscores the importance of noting typical price range when selecting stop loss and take-profit target levels.

 

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This gives me reason to look further into the use of the related 4-hour chart setup.

 

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The four-hour chart is great for giving me an idea of when to begin looking for reversals in daily trends, but rotten for alerting me as to when such reversals have actually been initiated...

So for this I will have to drop down to the one-hour time frame. However, the purple trend lines were to slow, yet I could not use the green instantaneous moving averages because they were a bit too wobbly, vacillating up and down in spots, as observed in the region I circled in red...

I therefore introduced the black trend lines, which were a bit more stable, yet more precise (actionable) than the purple moving averages. These are the lines I will use to define reversals at day-range support and resistance levels. Here is what the better line looks like when translated/transitioned to the five-minute time frame...

Using five-minute charts when making the final decision about entering or exiting positions will provide me with maximum precision (the code used to generate the trend line is too complex for practical use on one-minute charts).

 

[expiated]

A total of six people showed up today (Sunday) at the Long Beach Forex Day Traders' first meetup at 2:00 p.m. at Panera Bread in the Lakewood Center Mall.