Dunning Kruger Journal

Side Bet on MaximumPossibleSuffering's Trading Performance

  • Crushes SP500 Performance

    Votes: 3 30.0%

  • Beats

    Votes: 1 10.0%

  • No Better than Average

    Votes: 1 10.0%

  • Worse than Average

    Votes: 2 20.0%

  • Blows Up

    Votes: 3 30.0%
  • Total voters
    10
  • Poll closed .
The market and current money flows indicate some comfort in risk taking. TSLA filled its interday gap and them some as well as now well below its opening price. May short again if TSLA nears its open again, with an objective of 351 or so. Stop would be a little beyond high of day. I do have a concern related to strong performance of other active and high priced tech stocks.

Update:
TSLA is currently displaying weak relative performance and has been spending a lot of time in the gap fill area. Is TSLA getting ready to drop from here?
 
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Bought 50 VXX @ $29.4785 at 10:51:11. This is a counter intraday trend play. Low probability of profit, but risk seems high enough to justify trade. Stop is $29.33. Objective is an unreasonable high of day.

TSLA has not approached open again and appears to have gone asleep.

Correction, TSLA is showing a big red 5 minute bar. Should be support at 350 to 351. After that, say 345 to 346. From there, fundamentals should kick in to save the day. Oh wait...
 
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Looks like with got a little bounce in the ES off of the previous session's low. Still early. Maybe 2830 a good area to short for a retest of the low on the day?

TSLA is making a bit of a comeback. Flows away from risk don't seem to be exceptionally strong. Perhaps the low of the day will be able hold against a retest for ES.

No sooner than I wrote the above, we are testing the ES low of the day and previous session's low again. Now we are through it. An outside down day on ES? Is it possible? Kaboom!

Next stop 2800 this week? Or even Sooner?
 
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Sold 15 VXX @$30.9415 at 12:39:04 because of big red 5 minute bar. Will probably keep remaining 10 shares overnight. Should have been out closer to $31.10 to $31.15, but got distracted. Damn, looks like I got out at possible low of move.

Ever since today's apparent top, there have only been "baby" rallys is ES so far. Could still be a big down day?

May look to create bearish option spread near the end of the trading session on ES or SPY. Or may do a Bullish option spread on VXX.
 
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Sold 10 VXX @ $30.90 at 13:30.34 because of potential double top formation and TSLA now up again on day. Risk taking is still alive and well enough to keep this market from having a big down day. Now flat on day and may wait for any overnight trade ideas.

Here we go again. Was shaken out twice today perhaps. This time, I was in the restroom. Might have to read up on resting orders more and anticipate market developments in real time such that I can exit when the odds appear to be exceedingly against me.
 
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Bit of a late start and am busy, but managed to fire off a few trades as follows:

Bought 100 PAAS @ $16.50 at 07:34:19 on multiple country currency weakening plans may encourage investment in alternative stores of value, such as silver. PAAS has a decent balance sheet and reasonable earnings considering weakness of silver prices. This is intended to be a position trade.

Bought 100 WBK @ $21.68 at 07:37:20 because I am brain damaged. Will close shortly.

Bought 50 VXX @ $31.0775 at 07:50:30 because of surprising market turn combined with slightly weak flows to risk.

Sold 50 VXX @ $31.05 at 08:20:31 because earlier bullish broad market trend appear to have returned.

Sold 100 WBK @ $21.68 at 08:47:35. All times are US Mountain (Add 2 hours for NY time).
 
If it can't go down, it must go _________ ? Why did I not go long SPY when I exited VXX? Trying to multitask can yield some interesting results.

Looks like a possible intraday double top on ES. It is around lunchtime, but VXX seems perky. Event risk is high and there are possibilities of trade related contagion affecting financial markets in an increasing way over time. Post Summer seasonal volatility should start kicking in soon as well as US Midterms and potential budget battles adding to risk.

I expect we will stay reasonabily strong on ES today.
 
Here are some trade updates, 1 from yesterday and several over night:

Sold 50 PAAS $16.5616 at 13:53:17 yesterday on weak close concerns and potential negative next day follow through.

Sold 1 YMU @ 25235 at 00:18:14 because industrial commodities were very weak with copper down over 2% and crude weakening. Nikkei was down near 1%. I feel the global financial markets are connected and the US could start to see risk aversion.

Bought 1 YMU @ 25244 at 00:32:23. Covered my short at loss because ES held apparent important support at 2035 a couple of times. I did feel I chased the YM trade, though.

Sold 1 YMU @ 25245 at 01:06:05. Industrial commodities were getting hit some more and NQ started to show a little weaker relative performance, possibly indicating increased risk avoidance.

Bought 1 YMU @ 25248 at 01:23:36. I was too skittish here, but needed to go to sleep, wanted a short index position, but did not know where to put my stop, and did not want to risk more than my current risk tolerance of about $56.00.

Bought 1 ES Bear Spread: Long 1 ES Aug 17 2820 Put / Short 1 ES Aug 17 2805 Put for debit of $4.35 @ 01:38:45. I strongly considered shorting NQ after ES broke 2835. If my bear spread trade returns near maximum profit, It may allow me to reach the next higher tier of risk tolerance.

Sold 50 PAAS @ $16.37 at 09:30:05 on resting order. The market was showing strong growth concerns and it appears the long term downtrend in precious metals is intact. There appears to be overriding deflationary concerns.

Times are based on US Mountain Time, I believe. Will post screenshot of my trading statements this weekend.

China is down over 4% hitting new low on year, copper and crude are each down over 3%, and Nikkei down almost 2%. These are not small numbers. VXX is up over 10% and even this does not seem to fully price in potential risk right now. As of the moment, ES has avoided testing 2800. It seems to me, the chances of a big down day are high.
 
Correction on bear spread: I bought the Aug 17 ES 2835 Put / Sold the Aug 17 ES 2820 Put for a debit of $4.35. Closed position at $9.25 on ES tick action. May get better prices to sell again later. Also potential intraday double bottom. Trade time 10:14:52. IB may be using exchange time for my confirmations. In addition, I am frequently in different time zones which adds to my confusion of what time to show here. I may be able to change settings in TWS for uniform trade reporting times.
 
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