Dunning Kruger Journal

Side Bet on MaximumPossibleSuffering's Trading Performance

  • Crushes SP500 Performance

    Votes: 3 30.0%

  • Beats

    Votes: 1 10.0%

  • No Better than Average

    Votes: 1 10.0%

  • Worse than Average

    Votes: 2 20.0%

  • Blows Up

    Votes: 3 30.0%
  • Total voters
    10
  • Poll closed .
destriero said:
Ok understood. I'll be curious to hear your rationale of buying the vol ETF before GOOG reported. I suppose the same could be the same for my GOOGL position. GL.
More...

The VXX trade was going to be closed by the end of the day if one of my none of my objectives or stops were hit. I have no problem buying volatility before earnings reports of market moving issues.

Below are my trading performance adjusted standard stop levels:

Current account value as a % of starting value
Less than 103.6%, .18% of account starting value ($33,000) or $59.40
103.6 to 110.5%, .36% of account starting value or $118.82
110.6% to 121.5%, .72% of account starting value or $237.60
121.6% to 132.7%, 1.11% of account starting value or $366.30
132.7% and up, 1.11% of account value

Trading timeouts are reached should I loss three full stops consecutively or net on intraday losses or 3 "timeouts in a week.

There are provisions to increase stop levels to account for long option premium or option spreads, overnight trades, and "high confidence trades". I can double my stop levels in these situations after applying an overnight "stress test" of 5% on ES. The underlying Beta is considered, as appropiate.
 
Finally, after two weeks, good news and positive money flows. There is optimism on NAFTA trade talks with Mexico, industrial based commodities such as crude and copper are strong, FXI(China ETF) is up almost 3% on their Central Bank stimulus ideas, and Dow futures are outperforming probably on trade optimism.

The market is a genius. Why do I argue with it so often?

My preliminary trading plan is as follows: I'm not inclined to pay the overnight markup for an early long. I will buy SPY on short term buy signals above the open or buy VXX on ES sell signals below ES's open of the regular trading session. Should we have a strong morning, I may entertain reversion to mean scalps before lunchtime on select ETFs or Dow stocks.
 
destriero said:
Well, you’re not going to blowup!
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Actually, I have set a "Failure of purpose" criteria and minimum performance requirement in order to keep this short term trading account open.

If this account is not profitable by the last trading day of September or not outperforming the SP500 index(But must be profitable, regardless of SP500 performance) on the last trading day of December of this year, I will close this account.
 
Don't take this wrong as I hope that you'll be more transparent, but what is the point if these trades are posted later than actual? Are you going to produce a fill sheet or something along those lines at the EOD?

You can imagine that people will question it even if you're posting a string of losing trades. Maybe you've addressed this, don't know.
 
destriero said:
Don't take this wrong as I hope that you'll be more transparent, but what is the point if these trades are posted later than actual? Are you going to produce a fill sheet or something along those lines at the EOD?

You can imagine that people will question it even if you're posting a string of losing trades. Maybe you've addressed this, don't know.
More...

As mentioned in earlier posts, I will be providing screen shots of my account. This will show all my trades. As I am trading off of a iPad at the moment, posting here is taking my eyes off my platform. At the time, I dealing with connectivity issues and looking to initiate another trade.

VXX is holding firm in spite of ES rallys. Put a bid more favorable than mid on VXX Aug 3 31.50/33.00 Bull Call spread for over 10 minutes and still no fill. I suppose there is a lot of hedging going on into this rally.
 
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