Dunit, gone to cash!

[VicBee]

A 30% drop is basically unthinkable these days. Such would trigger abject panic and cause the markets and financial system to totally implode; recall how things almost blew up over the Treasury basis trade back in 2019 just because the Fed wasn't actively doing QE! The Fed will intervene to directly buy stocks long before we get anywhere close to such levels.

...unless they can't, in which case it's not a knife you want to be catching.

Talking about catching knives, a few months ago I was cutting bread with my very favorite big, extra sharp, bread knife which handle is heavier than the blade. When resting it on the counter the handle wasn't and the knife flipped and dropped. On the way down it caught the little finger of my right hand. Soon enough I was in emergency surgery to stich back my artery and nerve (missed the tendon) and ended up with 17 stitches. Done catching knives!

Anyway, a 2020 like drop would be ideal.

 

[KevinBB]

In the coulda woulda shoulda section, this year could have been better than last but I failed to let my winners run and watched significant profits run away from me

umm .. but isn't this what you are doing when you go to cash?

An alternative might have been to raise stops, take out some form of hedge, invest in non-correlated assets, or maybe just take out (say) 20% of assets each step down in your favourite major index.
KH

 

[VicBee]

umm .. but isn't this what you are doing when you go to cash?

An alternative might have been to raise stops, take out some form of hedge, invest in non-correlated assets, or maybe just take out (say) 20% of assets each step down in your favourite major index.
KH

Yeah, I was waiting for someone to bring this up. This could well be another example of watching the market jump up right in front of my eyes, or it could be lucky timing. Hindsight will settle that one.

This is a 401k retirement account that I've been treating like an all or nothing product. I told the rep that I would put everything back into that same plan once I'm more positive about the near future.

 

[Handle123]

By end of the year am getting out of stocks where dividends just not paying enough, so approx 60% plus and moving funds to commodities and options. Returns much better. Between real estate huge increases, people flipping them like back in 2006-2008, USA printing money, stock market making insane steep angle up. Back testing proves to me trailing stops never worked for me, most of my positions were bought in 2009, think am doing smart move in 401k. But I have seldom ran with the crowd.

 

[Clubber Lang]

I still can't believe the market goes up with everything the way it is.

Two words- THE FED

 

[KCalhoun]

Right re fed, sounds like they're going to spend less moving forward, so maybe a correction starts this afternoon, who knows....

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/02/federal-reserve-is-about-to-set-its-post-crisis-policy-course.html

 

[deaddog]

I still can't believe the market goes up with everything the way it is.

Someone wiser than me said the market climbs a wall of worry. As long as everyone thinks it's too high it'll more than likely keep climbing. When you start hearing "this time is different" it'll be time to bail.

 

[volpri]

Well, you are going to have plenty of opportunity starting at 1:50 PM EDT tomorrow, running all the way into end of RTH!

Scalpel has already been operating this morning. All trades profitable. TR trading. Trading probing gaps and fading outer edges of TR. Stopping for a bit as I have some other work to do. Why is price in a range till Fed speak. Because there is always a bullish and bearish interpretation of their comments. Disagreement among institutions and they move the markets. Even if they are expecting a bearish sentiment if it is not as bearish as they thought things can quickly turn bullish. The chart will show it. The chart will show which side wins. Always.

 

[volpri]

Did you make your surgical strike @Overnight? I did. Got to run and do other things.

 

[murray t turtle]

By end of the year am getting out of stocks where dividends just not paying enough, so approx 60% plus and moving funds to commodities and options. Returns much better. Between real estate huge increases, people flipping them like back in 2006-2008, USA printing money, stock market making insane steep angle up. Back testing proves to me trailing stops never worked for me, most of my positions were bought in 2009, think am doing smart move in 401k. But I have seldom ran with the crowd.



View attachment 270495

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Good points;
but angles never mean much its log or linear. An exception could include/ but not limited to a a huge steep run for month$ into SEPT/...............................................
LOL but that'S more SEPT sells \ THAN any ANGLE, ; i like some dividend paying stuff , but seldom buy for dividend mainly/ qld, tqqq, spxl upro,xlf