Dunit, gone to cash!

[VicBee]

It's been 6 weeks since taking my 401k to cash. The plan was an all stocks, large caps, top performer among such managed investments anywhere and the barometer for my own trading.

I was also planning to divest and stop trading at the end of this month but got greedy trying to squeeze a last minute bonanza by putting most of my chips on the wrong color, whatever color those crypto related stocks are. Who said the market can't drop 30%? Liar.
Thankfully time is on my side and I'm reasonably convinced that crypto will bounce back in 2022 (2023?) and turn my failed gamble into a smart decision.

In the meantime, the fund in which my 401k was has dropped 5%.

 

[Overnight]

It's been 6 weeks since taking my 401k to cash. The plan was an all stocks, large caps, top performer among such managed investments anywhere and the barometer for my own trading.

I was also planning to divest and stop trading at the end of this month but got greedy trying to squeeze a last minute bonanza by putting most of my chips on the wrong color, whatever color those crypto related stocks are. Who said the market can't drop 30%? Liar.
Thankfully time is on my side and I'm reasonably convinced that crypto will bounce back in 2022 (2023?) and turn my failed gamble into a smart decision.

In the meantime, the fund in which my 401k was has dropped 5%.

Good on you for following your plan and taking money off the table and keeping it off. That was like a "gut-feeling" move. Nothing wrong with that. Wednesday shall be interesting. It should give you guidance for the next year.

 

[deaddog]

Who said the market can't drop 30%? Liar.
Thankfully time is on my side and I'm reasonably convinced that crypto will bounce back in 2022 (2023?) and turn my failed gamble into a smart decision.

In the meantime, the fund in which my 401k was has dropped 5%.

What's the downside of taking a loss and seeing where crypto settles out. What was the downside when your stocks crosses the 50ma?

 

[themickey]

Thankfully time is on my side and I'm reasonably convinced that crypto will bounce back in 2022 (2023?)

Here's my 'prediction'.
In time, crypto stocks will become more difficult to trade, we have Western governments for starters who do not like retail type crypto.
Should crypto be allowed to remain legal, I see it trading similar to fx and gold.
It will not obey TA rules, will become more random, will go the way at times like gold, run hard for a short while then go into long term pullbacks.
The gloss and the hype of crypto will begin to evaporate, something else will take its place.
Predictions of $100k bitcoin will be like waiting for b'jezus.

 

[VicBee]

What's the downside of taking a loss and seeing where crypto settles out. What was the downside when your stocks crosses the 50ma?

Rationally, booking the loss and reentering at a lower point makes absolute sense. Psychologically it's tough because it is recognizing the (substantial) loss while holding is "not lost", just deferred gains (if and when).

Will give it serious consideration!

 

[Nine_Ender]

A 30% drop is basically unthinkable these days. Such would trigger abject panic and cause the markets and financial system to totally implode; recall how things almost blew up over the Treasury basis trade back in 2019 just because the Fed wasn't actively doing QE! The Fed will intervene to directly buy stocks long before we get anywhere close to such levels.

...unless they can't, in which case it's not a knife you want to be catching.

March 2020 we did 30%, no panic. Market recovered in short order. Short term traders especially short side traders lost their shit again but that's not news. Fed doesn't buy stocks nor do they need to. Even in 2008/2009 a far worse crisis all they did was buy a stake in GM and Chrysler.