Dumb luck..........?

MarkBrown said:
Actually there is a great way to use lagging indicators to trade with. Example you could keep track of how far a price spikes above and below an average before it turns opposite direction. Also those inflection points when failed usually signal the beginning of a momentum move in the same direction.
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Agreed. The point is that I accomplish this with my trading plan without indicators. This is not something that is complicated or a convoluted approach but one I have used now for 19 years without modifying it (no need to as it works). I have changed one thing: eliminated Stops.

However, I respect your point made and agree -- perhaps just a different approach. Thanks for the comment.
 
It is called Dynamic Hedging. If done properly there is no need for stops. I do understand your cynicism as well as skepticism -- used to this and expect it. I assume you mean that without stops you would certainly lose often and lots of money. If you are not trading as I am that would be true. Taking a long or short position (eg: ES future Long) is, as you know a "50/50 Bet". Most will enter long or short with a Risk vs reward of say 1:2 using a stop limit order. May work for you and others. Does not work for me. I do not use stops which often stops one out with a loss because the stop ("was not well placed") or their Risk vs Reward was incorrectly made. Perhaps they were scalping for just a few ticks and want to do that many times a day -- does not work either. One determination that I make before entering any trade is what is my target and long it will take to get there. I am sure you gentlemen have heard the saying, "Duration Trumps Direction". This probably does not give you the answer you were fishing for but it is not easy to "compete" for Love in ET.

If you know Dynamic Hedging that is what I am doing. Not my invention. Paid $3500 for a 1-day course to learn it from a mentor. Happy I did. Thanks.
 
OK -- Attack if you wish. This is why it is of no value and often a waste of time posting here. (Moderators should perhaps be more active -- and watch for the "one-liners" and questionable intent.)
 
MACD said:
OK -- Attack if you wish. This is why it is of no value and often a waste of time posting here. (Moderators should perhaps be more active -- and watch for the "one-liners" and questionable intent.)
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Meanwhile: The OP is not even responding. ?
 
MACD said:
It is called Dynamic Hedging. If done properly there is no need for stops. I do understand your cynicism as well as skepticism -- used to this and expect it. I assume you mean that without stops you would certainly lose often and lots of money. If you are not trading as I am that would be true. Taking a long or short position (eg: ES future Long) is, as you know a "50/50 Bet". Most will enter long or short with a Risk vs reward of say 1:2 using a stop limit order. May work for you and others. Does not work for me. I do not use stops which often stops one out with a loss because the stop ("was not well placed") or their Risk vs Reward was incorrectly made. Perhaps they were scalping for just a few ticks and want to do that many times a day -- does not work either. One determination that I make before entering any trade is what is my target and long it will take to get there. I am sure you gentlemen have heard the saying, "Duration Trumps Direction". This probably does not give you the answer you were fishing for but it is not easy to "compete" for Love in ET.

If you know Dynamic Hedging that is what I am doing. Not my invention. Paid $3500 for a 1-day course to learn it from a mentor. Happy I did. Thanks.
More...

1. I never heard "duration trumps direction".

2. I don't believe in "targets" as a successful way to trade

3. Trading properly, an ES play is better than "50/50".

Bottom Line... to avoid catastrophic loss, you must have some way to limit your downside... stops, hedge, whatever.
 
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