Trends exist, people get too focused on just price data and "charts" and such and don't really understand the mechanics. The best trends are where you have an imbalance that will create a vicious (virtuous) cycle, that as price tries to move to balance it, it becomes more imbalanced.
For example:
The collapse in Oil.
There began a supply imbalance, too much investment, shale, blah blah blah.
Now we have supply>demand glut.
But wait, as prices fall, suppliers actually INCREASE their rate of production trying to keep their heads above water (the correct action would be of course to DECREASE production, but that wouldn't work for them given the structural overbuild/over investment/marginal profitability).
So then you have: Price goes lower, supply goes higher, demand stays the same, and that loop continues until suppliers are blown completely out of the water.
THAT is a trend, it will manifest itself in price action, people with dumb automated systems may catch it eventually, but someone like a Soros understands what drives price and understands how market structure can create huge moves, and then trades accordingly. I doubt he is getting chopped up in a MA crossover or Donchian breakout system on some market where there is no sustainable imbalance.
People who say there are no trends = idiots
People who say there are trends and try to trade them via price action on a 5m chart = basically idiots
People who identify scenarios in which there is a sustainable imbalance = $$$$$$
For example:
The collapse in Oil.
There began a supply imbalance, too much investment, shale, blah blah blah.
Now we have supply>demand glut.
But wait, as prices fall, suppliers actually INCREASE their rate of production trying to keep their heads above water (the correct action would be of course to DECREASE production, but that wouldn't work for them given the structural overbuild/over investment/marginal profitability).
So then you have: Price goes lower, supply goes higher, demand stays the same, and that loop continues until suppliers are blown completely out of the water.
THAT is a trend, it will manifest itself in price action, people with dumb automated systems may catch it eventually, but someone like a Soros understands what drives price and understands how market structure can create huge moves, and then trades accordingly. I doubt he is getting chopped up in a MA crossover or Donchian breakout system on some market where there is no sustainable imbalance.
People who say there are no trends = idiots
People who say there are trends and try to trade them via price action on a 5m chart = basically idiots
People who identify scenarios in which there is a sustainable imbalance = $$$$$$
