Yes. Certainly there is always a trending asset with the benefit of hindsight. The problem is anticipating if and when they are trending. Does a current trend imply a future trend? what are the payoffs? Those are the real problems. Its kind of like "there is always an asset that goes up 100% in a year. Certainly. The problem is, which one? and how can we know before the move occurs? Looking at past trends does not tell us much - and if it does, it should be possible to test for with simple statistical tests.
Dude, Are you still trying to trade trends?
- Thread starter MarketAddict
- Start date
A trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known. A trend is realized only in hindsight because while it is formed every point on it can potentially mark a top.
80% of the time you get there , you see a trend , it is over and it a trend chop out loss.
NICE IMAGES OF FAKES ETC
http://www.futuresmag.com/2013/04/23/everything-you-know-about-breakout-trading-wrong
Probably the best Intraday strategy for Index Futures & Options
Just do basic back testing and/or simulation, and I'm pretty sure that in a sufficient long period this thing will give you 50% success rate like any all of the other systematic approaches out there. There is no edge in price prediction, it is a sad but true reality of efficient markets
This poster taking sense
Just do basic back testing and/or simulation, and I'm pretty sure that in a sufficient long period this thing will give you 50% success rate like any all of the other systematic approaches out there. There is no edge in price prediction, it is a sad but true reality of efficient markets
This poster taking sense
FACT:The orignal mr Turtle failed as a fund manager , all his trends got choppy (something trend trading educators hide from trainees ) , yet his trainees did well
but the same formula of mr tutle is dead.
Dennis managed pools of capital for others in the markets for a while, but withdrew from such management in the spring of 1988 after his clients suffered heavy losses. In theBlack Monday stock market crash of 1987, he reportedly lost $10 million,[8] with a total of $50 million reportedly lost in 1987–1988.[2] In 1990 his firm settled investor complaints of his failure to follow his own rules, for over $2.5 million, without admitting or denying any wrongdoing.[9] He also managed funds for some time in the mid and late 1990s, closing these operations after losses in the summer of 2000.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Dennis
but the same formula of mr tutle is dead.
Dennis managed pools of capital for others in the markets for a while, but withdrew from such management in the spring of 1988 after his clients suffered heavy losses. In theBlack Monday stock market crash of 1987, he reportedly lost $10 million,[8] with a total of $50 million reportedly lost in 1987–1988.[2] In 1990 his firm settled investor complaints of his failure to follow his own rules, for over $2.5 million, without admitting or denying any wrongdoing.[9] He also managed funds for some time in the mid and late 1990s, closing these operations after losses in the summer of 2000.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Dennis
L
lovethetrade
Well that's the key isn't it, knowing if the trend will continue. What methodology does one use to determine this?
tested support and retested support at trend breakout , pullbacks and behaviour of prices including momentum . all this work in theory but
but but A trend can only be determined in hindsight, since at any time prices in the future are not known.
It has nothing to do with hindsight. If it does, it means that you are not able to trade that way because you have no clue. It is not because a blind cannot see, that it does not exist.
You can find areas where a trend change can happen. If you backtest this you can know with high probability what the chances are that the signal will be a good one, you can also know with high probability what the chances are that it will be a real trend, and you can even know with high probability what the chances are that a trend change is occurring as you will get a new signal. It is an eternal recurring cycle.
Looking at past data can help you to find these cycles. So past data can indeed help you. You should only know how to do that. So you are the problem.
That's your job to find out. That's trading. If people don't even understand that, they are definitely too stupid to become a profitable trader.
Many of the questions people ask are similar to: how can I find the highest high to go short, and the lowest low to go long, and never be wrong?
You have to find out that yourself. If ever somebody would find the correct answer he will never tell it to you. So stop asking these questions and spent yourself ten thousands of hours to find an edge, because that's the only way out.
MT
The conclusion I make from your posts , is that successful trend trading is subjective (beauty is in the eye of the beholder).Therefore successful trend trading can not be taught by others.
TEB
