2014 was a very good year for treasury prices. Better than long or short stock indices. Trend can be better than whipsaw/range or lack of trend. Lever up like it's 1999.
Druckenmiller Dumps All His Stocks, Piles Into Treasuries Expecting Rates To Hit Zero
- Thread starter nooby_mcnoob
- Start date
2014 was a very good year for treasury prices. Better than long or short stock indices. Trend can be better than whipsaw/range or lack of trend. Lever up like it's 1999.
Back in 2015 he gave a speech to the Lost Tree Club, he said with the Feb printing money like mad the economy and stock market could end badly.
https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Druckenmiller-_Speech.pdf
Sometime later, he said he got out of the market and owned gold(?)
I think both time he was wrong or maybe his timing was off.
His biggest skill is he made huge bets, but moved in and out, made adjustments quickly if he decided he was wrong.
https://www.valuewalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Druckenmiller-_Speech.pdf
Sometime later, he said he got out of the market and owned gold(?)
I think both time he was wrong or maybe his timing was off.
His biggest skill is he made huge bets, but moved in and out, made adjustments quickly if he decided he was wrong.
As a direct means of fighting recessions, cutting interest rates is generally ineffective. There is a somewhat beneficial indirect "wealth effect" however, as the dollar weakens and the market rises. What is generally effective, however, is increased government spending and demand side tax cuts and stimulus. (the great recession was, of course, an atypical case, fought, rather brilliantly, with atypical tools.)
As a general rule, I think one should turn a deaf ear to politicians and the media when making investment decisions. With Trump as president, this becomes doubly important. He will say anything, no matter how outrageous, wrong or stupid, to turn the spot light on himself. But fortunately for the nations sake, he is very inconsistent when following through on his seat of the pants promises and threats. If there is a more worthless human being that ever walked the face of the Earth, I can't imagine whom it could be.
As a general rule, I think one should turn a deaf ear to politicians and the media when making investment decisions. With Trump as president, this becomes doubly important. He will say anything, no matter how outrageous, wrong or stupid, to turn the spot light on himself. But fortunately for the nations sake, he is very inconsistent when following through on his seat of the pants promises and threats. If there is a more worthless human being that ever walked the face of the Earth, I can't imagine whom it could be.
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The thing about going to cash or Treasury Bills, even when your timing is wrong, is that although opportunity for gain may be lost, at least your capital loss is nil if in Bills, or limited to inflation, if in cash. No decision is always better than a wrong decision. What I admire about Druckemiller, is that he's seems to have never lost sight of his fallibility and is therefore quick to recognize when he is wrong and do something about it while losses are still relatively contained. This is likely a characteristic that made him so compatible with Soros.
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Doing the opposite of what dozu says is likely a winning strategy
For sure rates could hit zero. 2 year bund went from -.65% to -.70% today. You know..such a bargain at -.65% that you need to buy more.
93% to zero is impressive for sure. I have been at zero for a year and a half and I am good.
93% to zero is impressive for sure. I have been at zero for a year and a half and I am good.
What does this mean?
I like reading what you write but can you go one post without talking about Trump.
Not really, that jerk is constantly on my mind. What did we do to deserve him?
I love reading your posts. With or without Trump.