Just a couple of easy scenarios off the top of my head:Quote from ratboy88:
leaving won't cause $200 a barrel..
- a global middle eastern civil war involving Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia and others - shia against sunni, tribe against tribe, Arabs against Persians, Turks against Kurds. Think it's not likely, take a look at Yugoslavia.
- No civil war, they are best friends, Iran in cahoots with Iraq and Syria attack Israel, Israel nukes a couple of arab/persian capitals.
How much do you think oil is going to cost?
PS You know my views, I could not care less about chaos in the Middle East and arabs murdering arabs. Unfortunately we'll also be screwed big time.