Dragon pattern

Quote from Pekelo:

Sure it is profitable, as long as the pattern still presents itself although as I mentioned earlier lately it has became rarer.

I also mentioned earlier in the thread that the pattern doesn't predict how big the move will be from the 3rd bottom. It could be just a little bump or it can signal the end of the trend. usually when 2 different timeframed dragons overlap, that situation has a much bigger chance to be the end of the trend and the last bottom/top.

So no exit rules?
 
Quote from greenery:

So no exit rules?

I thought I have explained everything. From the 2nd bottom long you exit at the Failure. From the Failure short you exit at the 3rd bttom. From the 3rd bottom long there is no exit rule, because the pattern doesn't predict the size of the advance....
 
Long time, no see.

I am posting this because recently there was interest in the pattern and it looks like this might have signaled the end of this sell off, but if not, definitely a nice bounce from the 3rd bottom.

Height 8 pts, Failure at 4 pts on the SMA, classic:

cNWWg.png


For extra credit, here is another one earlier in the day:

ePS5z.png


The Height was 18 pts and there was a little 5 pts bounce after 22 pts drop (from the Failure), showing that you just never know....
 
This thread seems too dormant to me, apparently not for the market. :)

We had a double top at 5400 on the NDX daily chart in the last 2 weeks that failed to fall 2 days ago at 5360. I quickly did the math, made the prediction of topping at 5420 and sure enough, the next day (yesterday) it did top at 5426. So far it dropped below 5400 but bouncing up now. I believe we have a long term top here, still too early to tell, but the pattern played out as I expected.

The upper BB touch was a nice addition to confirm the top...
 

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This thread seems too dormant to me, apparently not for the market. :)

We had a double top at 5400 on the NDX daily chart in the last 2 weeks that failed to fall 2 days ago at 5360. I quickly did the math, made the prediction of topping at 5420 and sure enough, the next day (yesterday) it did top at 5426. So far it dropped below 5400 but bouncing up now. I believe we have a long term top here, still too early to tell, but the pattern played out as I expected.

The upper BB touch was a nice addition to confirm the top...
Aren't there 4 peaks to account for instead of 3?
 
Aren't there 4 peaks to account for instead of 3?

You mean where I put the number 3? I count it as one peak, because it just continued from the previous day. Now if you consider the futures, they did gap up between the 15th and 16th and they did cause a 4th peak but this daily chart doesn't show it...
 
You mean where I put the number 3? I count it as one peak, because it just continued from the previous day. Now if you consider the futures, they did gap up between the 15th and 16th and they did cause a 4th peak but this daily chart doesn't show it...
it looks like there was peak before the one you marked as 1
 
it looks like there was peak before the one you marked as 1

Oh I see, well it has to be a double top or bottom (thus 2 peaks nearly at the same level) to be considered a possible dragon formation. The one you mention was much lower at 5360...
 
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