Dragon pattern
- Thread starter Pekelo
- Start date
Posted 2 days ago in the ES Journal when cash was above 1125:
And here is where we are at, right now:
More than 90% of the prediction has been fullfilled. I caught the pattern a bit late when it has already advanced 20+ points, but there were still plenty to be made, assuming well, you trust your dragon!
A reminder: This 1070 is just an app. target area and it could be overshot or bounce earlier. So far the bottom has been 1076.3 on cash....
Quote from Pekelo:
Here is what I was talking about:
As you can see I didn't draw the line from the May 6th low, I counted it as an anomaly...
And here is where we are at, right now:
More than 90% of the prediction has been fullfilled. I caught the pattern a bit late when it has already advanced 20+ points, but there were still plenty to be made, assuming well, you trust your dragon!
A reminder: This 1070 is just an app. target area and it could be overshot or bounce earlier. So far the bottom has been 1076.3 on cash....
Just for the record: There was another bottom at 1 pm 1073.3 cash and 1071 ES. That had a nice bounce/rally of 22 points after that I noted that the pattern has played out.
The market kept on falling and already passed below the original 3rd bottom of 1070. A very classic, right on the money dragon pattern, almost exactly following my count....
The market kept on falling and already passed below the original 3rd bottom of 1070. A very classic, right on the money dragon pattern, almost exactly following my count....
wheres the shining knighting riding a unicorn pattern? I forgot what to look for for that one.
A very classic one has just ended, best seen on the daily chart:
Height was 30+ pts, the Failure right on the SMA line at 1081 as it should be and the 3rd bottom (expected at 1051) was sligthly overshot by a few points, but nevertheless bounced 7 pts.
I posted this right after the Failure happened in the ES Journal, except I gave the numbers for ES and not the cash. The difference is about 2-2.5 pts.....
Height was 30+ pts, the Failure right on the SMA line at 1081 as it should be and the 3rd bottom (expected at 1051) was sligthly overshot by a few points, but nevertheless bounced 7 pts.
I posted this right after the Failure happened in the ES Journal, except I gave the numbers for ES and not the cash. The difference is about 2-2.5 pts.....
We had recently another nice one, so let's show them for prosperity. Also, let's compare the SPX and the NDX and see the differences. Both overshot the Failure zone, affecting the math, nevertheless the pattern was very playable...
The NDX first, because it was perfectly symmetric (meaning the 1st and 2nd tops were on the same level) thus easier to recognize. Also it looks more dragon-like:
Height: 50 pts
Failure: 2070 (should have been 2080)
3rd top: 2128 (see explanation below)
There were 2 ways to calculate the 3rd top, because of the overshot. I mentioned earlier that when the real Failure happens higher or lower the math should still be done from the expected theoretical level. At least that has been my theory based on experience. So if we do that way, 2080+50= 2130, we almost got it right by 2 pts. If we calculate the 3rd top from the real Failure, 2070+50= 2120, the NDX overshot it by 8 pts.
Either way, the prediction got it pretty close, and that was a very shortable 3rd top. It just shows that nothing is written in gold in TA and there are variations.
Here is the SPX chart (again 10 days/hourly). The expected Failure zone is circled:
Height 26 pts.
Failure at: 1171 (should have been around 1176)
3rd top expected: 1197
I posted the calculation in the ES Journal and I did it from the real Failure. It eventually got less than 1 point close and the SPX topped at 96.14...
I say that is pretty damn good....
The NDX first, because it was perfectly symmetric (meaning the 1st and 2nd tops were on the same level) thus easier to recognize. Also it looks more dragon-like:
Height: 50 pts
Failure: 2070 (should have been 2080)
3rd top: 2128 (see explanation below)
There were 2 ways to calculate the 3rd top, because of the overshot. I mentioned earlier that when the real Failure happens higher or lower the math should still be done from the expected theoretical level. At least that has been my theory based on experience. So if we do that way, 2080+50= 2130, we almost got it right by 2 pts. If we calculate the 3rd top from the real Failure, 2070+50= 2120, the NDX overshot it by 8 pts.
Either way, the prediction got it pretty close, and that was a very shortable 3rd top. It just shows that nothing is written in gold in TA and there are variations.
Here is the SPX chart (again 10 days/hourly). The expected Failure zone is circled:
Height 26 pts.
Failure at: 1171 (should have been around 1176)
3rd top expected: 1197
I posted the calculation in the ES Journal and I did it from the real Failure. It eventually got less than 1 point close and the SPX topped at 96.14...
I say that is pretty damn good....
I sense Pekelo has me on ignore (beats me why, but not going to protest), so could somebody please quote this post so Mr Grumpy can see it, as I believe it has substance.
Ok, monthly Ninja, dragon or not? Just curious.
<img src=http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=568968&d=1288206728>
Ok, monthly Ninja, dragon or not? Just curious.
<img src=http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=568968&d=1288206728>
trukinnnnnn'