Dragon pattern
- Thread starter Pekelo
- Start date
I estimate that in this bearmarket we have this pattern about 3 times a week. Since we didn't have one yesterday, the market doubled up, and we had 2 back to back:
1st one:
Height was 8, Failure at 5, 3rd bottom 7, with only a 2 pts bounce.
2nd one:
Height was 4, Failure at 2, 3rd bottom at 4, ended in a downtrend ending minirally.
Now I could theorize that if one dragon's bounce is minimal, the next one's will give a full rally up to the Height at least...
1st one:
Height was 8, Failure at 5, 3rd bottom 7, with only a 2 pts bounce.
2nd one:
Height was 4, Failure at 2, 3rd bottom at 4, ended in a downtrend ending minirally.
Now I could theorize that if one dragon's bounce is minimal, the next one's will give a full rally up to the Height at least...
Well, generally the failure occurs around 50% of the Height. This time since the Height was 32, and the 2nd bottom was at 678, the Failure was expected around 678 + (32/2)= 694
The SPX overshot it quite a bit, but still it was I think below 70%. The best is if the failure occurs in the 40-60% zone.
I would say if it reaches 80% of the Height, it won't fail at that price.
Edit: We just hit 672.5 which is getting pretty close to the 667 predicted 3rd bottom
The SPX overshot it quite a bit, but still it was I think below 70%. The best is if the failure occurs in the 40-60% zone.
I would say if it reaches 80% of the Height, it won't fail at that price.
Edit: We just hit 672.5 which is getting pretty close to the 667 predicted 3rd bottom
Nice Work Pekelo.
Hope you loaded up on the ES down there at 667.
Hope you loaded up on the ES down there at 667.
